Philadelphia Flyers vs Ottawa Senators Final — October 8, 2026
PHIStarting goaliesOTT
PHIOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)OTTPHIDefenseOTTPHITeamOTTPHI5-on-5OTTPHISpecial teamsOTTPHIRecent formOTTPHIHome and roadseason to dateOTTInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
PHIRest & travelOTTPHIKey injuriesOTTAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 8, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Flyers (0-2-2) visited the Senators (2-1-0) on Thursday, October 8 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Flyers earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Senators 60.4% (9th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Flyers 51.0% (11th), Senators 54.8% (3rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Flyers 47.7% (26th), Senators 52.9% (5th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Flyers 53.7% (9th), Senators 56.0% (4th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Flyers +150, Senators -180) prices the Flyers at 38% and the Senators at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Ottawa Senators won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Ottawa Senators -1.5): Philadelphia Flyers covered.
- Combined score 3 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Ottawa Senators closed at -180 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Ottawa Senators 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 9 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Philadelphia Flyers 38%, Ottawa Senators 62%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 10:14 — Ottawa Senators goal (0-1)Ottawa Senators 62% → 76% (+13 pts)
- 2nd 7:46 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (1-1)Philadelphia Flyers 24% → 43% (+19 pts)
- 3rd 13:01 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-2)Ottawa Senators 55% → 90% (+35 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Philadelphia Flyers won 51% of G&W replays (Ottawa Senators 49%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Flyers | Goals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 0.6 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.9 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 2.6 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.5 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.9 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -1.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.5 |
| +0.5 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Joseph Woll 24/26 · Linus Ullmark 28/29 | +1.9 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Flyers +1.5 (-240)
Flyers +1.5 (-180)
Senators -122 53%
Senators -180 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Flyers won 8 and the Senators 13.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Senators 2, Flyers 1 OT Senators won | Senators -130 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Senators 3, Flyers 2 OT Senators won | Senators -123 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Flyers 1, Senators 2 Senators won | Senators -160 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Flyers 3, Senators 4 OT Senators won | Senators -210 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Senators 5, Flyers 2 Senators won | Senators -121 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Philadelphia Flyers
- Philadelphia Flyers team stats
- Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals (Oct 28)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (Oct 27)
- Anaheim Ducks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (Oct 24)
- Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 21)
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 8, 2026
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- Nashville Predators 5, Montréal Canadiens 2 (Oct 8)
- Minnesota Wild 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (Oct 8)
- Chicago Blackhawks 1, New York Islanders 4 (Oct 8)
- San Jose Sharks 3, St Louis Blues 2 (Oct 8)
- Colorado Avalanche 7, Calgary Flames 3 (Oct 8)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 8)
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