Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning Final — October 8, 2026
MINStarting goaliesTB
MINOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TBMINDefenseTBMINTeamTBMIN5-on-5TBMINSpecial teamsTBMINRecent formTBMINHome and roadseason to dateTBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelTBMINKey injuriesTBAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 8, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Wild (2-0-1) visited the Lightning (2-1-0) on Thursday, October 8 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Wild scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Wild earned 63.4% of available standings points (7th) and the Lightning 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Wild 50.9% (12th), Lightning 54.2% (5th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Wild 48.2% (24th), Lightning 53.3% (3rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Wild 53.5% (10th), Lightning 57.9% (2nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wild +120, Lightning -144) prices the Wild at 44% and the Lightning at 56%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Wild 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Tampa Bay Lightning won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5): Minnesota Wild covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -144 on the moneyline (a 56% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Minnesota Wild.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Wild 44%, Tampa Bay Lightning 56%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 5:26 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (0-1)Tampa Bay Lightning 56% → 71% (+15 pts)
- 2nd 2:32 — Minnesota Wild goal (1-2)Minnesota Wild 14% → 27% (+13 pts)
- 2nd 14:01 — Minnesota Wild goal (2-3)Minnesota Wild 11% → 26% (+15 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 64% of G&W replays (Minnesota Wild 36%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is where that came from.
| Wild | Goals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.7 |
| 0.6 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.6 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 2.4 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.6 |
| 0.6 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 1.0 |
| -1.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.6 |
| +0.6 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jesper Wallstedt 32/35 · Dennis Hildeby 34/36 | +1.0 |
How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 56% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wild +1.5 (-205)
Wild +1.5 (-217)
Lightning -149 57%
Lightning -144 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Wild won 9 and the Lightning 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | Wild 3, Lightning 6 Lightning won | Lightning -160 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Lightning 1, Wild 5 Wild won | Lightning -141 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Lightning 3, Wild 5 Wild won | Wild -115 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Wild 4, Lightning 2 Wild won | Lightning -159 underdog won | 6 push |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Wild 3, Lightning 7 Lightning won | Lightning -141 favorite won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Minnesota Wild
- Minnesota Wild team stats
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
Tampa Bay Lightning
More NHL games on October 8, 2026
- Utah Mammoth 1, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 8)
- Dallas Stars 4, Buffalo Sabres 0 (Oct 8)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 7 (Oct 8)
- Nashville Predators 5, Montréal Canadiens 2 (Oct 8)
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 8)
- Chicago Blackhawks 1, New York Islanders 4 (Oct 8)
- San Jose Sharks 3, St Louis Blues 2 (Oct 8)
- Colorado Avalanche 7, Calgary Flames 3 (Oct 8)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 8)
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