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NHL · October 8, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights Final — October 8, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs

2-2-0

Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Confirmed

FINAL

Vegas Golden Knights

3-1-0

Goalie Adin Hill Confirmed

Thursday, October 8 · 10:10 PM ET

TORStarting goaliesVGK

This season

Starts

.887

Sv%

.900

HDSv%

.500

+0.1

GSAx

−0.5

Last season

Starts

.877

Sv%

.871

.799

HDSv%

.746

−18.1

GSAx

−16.2

TOROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)VGK

16th3.09

GF/G

3.2314th

21st6.90

PP GF/60

9.643rd

TORDefenseVGK

31st3.65

GA/G

3.0513th

6th6.38

PK GA/60

6.858th

TORTeamVGK

28th47.6%

Pts%

57.9%12th

29th45.5%

xGF%

54.5%4th

32nd44.8%

CF%

52.3%7th

28th45.2%

HDCF%

59.9%1st

TOR5-on-5VGK

28th2.28

xGF/60

2.5714th

27th2.74

xGA/60

2.152nd

8th10.3%

Sh%

9.3%19th

22nd90.0%

Sv%

89.0%31st

10th117.1

CF/60 (both)

112.624th

7th+0.20

GAx/G

+0.0417th

24th−0.11

GSAx/G

−0.3731st

10th10.9%

Sh%

10.8%13th

15th89.7%

Sv%

88.4%28th

31st40.5%

xGF% (L20)

57.9%2nd

TORSpecial teamsVGK

19th7.33

PP xG/60

9.292nd

25th73.3

PP FF/60

83.47th

31st4.1

PP min/G

4.426th

31st8.78

PK xGA/60

5.921st

19th4.8

PK min/G

4.12nd

TORRecent formVGK

Lvs MTL 2-3Wvs NYI 2-1Lvs OTT 2-3Wvs NSH 5-4

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs CHI 5-2Lvs ANA 3-4W@ VAN 3-2W@ SEA 6-2

Game by game

2-2-0

Record

3-1-0

1-3

Over–under

3-1

TORHome and roadseason to dateVGK

2-2-0

Home record

1-1-0

0-0-0

Road record

2-0-0

1-3

Home O/U

2-0

0-0

Road O/U

1-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TORRest & travelVGK

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

1,952 mi3,141 km

Travel to the game

Home

−3 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

TORKey injuriesVGK

Max Domi CIR

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 8, 8:10 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Maple Leafs (2-2-0) visited the Golden Knights (3-1-0) on Thursday, October 8 at 10:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Golden Knights scored 3.23 goals per game (14th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Maple Leafs earned 47.6% of available standings points (28th) and the Golden Knights 57.9% (12th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th), Golden Knights 54.5% (4th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd), Golden Knights 52.3% (7th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th), Golden Knights 59.9% (1st). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maple Leafs +140, Golden Knights -170) prices the Maple Leafs at 40% and the Golden Knights at 60%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4

Vegas Golden Knights won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Vegas Golden Knights -1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Vegas Golden Knights closed at -170 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Vegas Golden Knights 4

Decided

In a shootout

Vegas Golden Knights won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

40%Market at the close60%

Toronto Maple LeafsVegas Golden Knights

41%Market at the open59%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Vegas Golden Knights.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toronto Maple Leafs 40%, Vegas Golden Knights 60%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 1:12 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (3-2)Vegas Golden Knights 23% → 40% (+17 pts)
2nd 3:58 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (3-3)Vegas Golden Knights 39% → 58% (+19 pts)
OT 5:00 — Vegas Golden Knights game-endVegas Golden Knights 50% → 100% (+50 pts)

Vegas Golden Knights won after falling as low as 13% (1st 17:36).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

25%TOR

Share of G&W replays won

75%VGK

2.0

Expected goals

3.9

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Vegas Golden Knights won 75% of G&W replays (Toronto Maple Leafs 25%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Vegas Golden Knights. Here is where that came from.

Maple Leafs	Goals	Golden Knights
1.5	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.6
0.5	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.3
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
2.0	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.9
0.7	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.9
0.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.8
+0.3	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-1.9
+1.9	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Sergei Bobrovsky 40/43 · Adin Hill 21/24	-0.3

Bar left: Maple Leafs gainedBar right: Golden Knights gained

How the margin was built, from Vegas Golden Knights's side:

Chances +2.1Finishing & goaltending -2.1Shootout +1Vegas Golden Knights by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Vegas Golden Knights closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenGolden Knights -1.5 (+152)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-185)

CloseGolden Knights -1.5 (+135)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-175)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -100 / u -120)

Close6.5 (o -125 / u +102)

Moneyline

OpenMaple Leafs +135 41%
Golden Knights -163 59%

CloseMaple Leafs +140 40%
Golden Knights -170 60%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Maple Leafs won 7 and the Golden Knights 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 23, 2026	Golden Knights 6, Maple Leafs 3 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -120 favorite won	6.5 over
Jan 15, 2026	Maple Leafs 5, Golden Knights 6 OT Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -130 favorite won	6 over
Mar 5, 2025	Maple Leafs 2, Golden Knights 5 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -160 favorite won	6 over
Nov 20, 2024	Golden Knights 0, Maple Leafs 3 Maple Leafs won		6 under
Feb 27, 2024	Golden Knights 6, Maple Leafs 2 Golden Knights won	Maple Leafs -165 underdog won	6 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams