Western Michigan Broncos vs Central Michigan Chippewas Final — October 17, 2026
WMUOffense2026 regular season to dateCMU
WMUDefenseCMUWMURecent formCMUWMUHome and roadseason to dateCMUWMULast 10 gamesCMURest & travelrest and travel
WMURest & travelCMUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Western Michigan (3-2) visited Central Michigan (2-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 1:30 PM ET.
Western Michigan has the 86th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 79th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has the 101st-ranked offense and the 120th-ranked defense. When Western Michigan has the ball, a 86th-ranked offense (+0.014 EPA per play) meets a 120th-ranked defense (+0.224 allowed); when Central Michigan has it, a 101st-ranked offense (−0.022) meets a 79th-ranked defense (+0.083 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Western Michigan offense is at 46.0% (78th) and the Central Michigan offense at 49.1% (45th). Western Michigan scores 21.0 points per game (100th) and allows 18.0 (26th); Central Michigan scores 17.8 (115th) and allows 29.6 (99th).
Western Michigan is 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 38-7 win over Kent State. Central Michigan is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 31-14 loss to Ohio.
Western Michigan closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Central Michigan getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 43.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Western Michigan -300, Central Michigan +238) prices Western Michigan at 72% and Central Michigan at 28%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Western Michigan Broncos 21, Central Michigan Chippewas 14
Western Michigan Broncos won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Central Michigan Chippewas +7.5): Central Michigan Chippewas covered.
- Combined score 35 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- Western Michigan Broncos closed at -300 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Central Michigan Chippewas.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Western Michigan Broncos 72%, Central Michigan Chippewas 28%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:27 — Central Michigan Chippewas ball, 4th & 2 at WMU 38Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU37 (#47 D.Moon; #10 J.Betts), TURNOVER ON DOWNSWestern Michigan Broncos 65% → 72% (+6 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Western Michigan | Points added | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | Passingdropbacks | -7.3 |
| +4.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.8 |
| +2.2 | Explosive plays2 plays · 2 plays | +8.8 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +4.5 |
| +0.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.8 |
| +7.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 1 of 1 | +0.7 |
| +5.4 | All plays | +9.2 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 7.1 points to Western Michigan Broncos. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Western Michigan Broncos closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.
The line moved toward Central Michigan Chippewas before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Western Michigan -7.5 (-110)
Western Michigan -7.5 (-109)
Central Michigan +262 26%
Central Michigan +238 28%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts139
- Completion %68.3%36th
- Passing yards996150th
- Yards per attempt7.2140th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards39262nd
- Season line78 carries, 392 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards292132nd
- Season line20 catches, 292 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles40109th
- Attempts52
- Completion %63.5%
- Passing yards256
- Yards per attempt4.9
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards50129th
- Season line97 carries, 501 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards142438th
- Season line10 catches, 142 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles4551st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Western Michigan | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWestern Michigan offense vs Central Michigan defense | 40.9%96th | 49.5%128th |
| Early-down success rateCentral Michigan offense vs Western Michigan defense | 45.3%92nd | 43.4%69th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWestern Michigan offense vs Central Michigan defense | 45.6%35th | 50.0%121st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCentral Michigan offense vs Western Michigan defense | 33.3%22nd | 27.8%128th |
| Explosive play rateWestern Michigan offense vs Central Michigan defense | 4.8%121st | 8.4%115th |
| Explosive play rateCentral Michigan offense vs Western Michigan defense | 5.8%39th | 4.9%118th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 42.3%118th-highest | 28.6%134th-highest |
On 3rd down Western Michigan converts 45.6% (35th) against a Central Michigan defense allowing 50.0% (121st).
On 3rd down Central Michigan converts 27.8% (128th) against a Western Michigan defense allowing 33.3% (22nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Western Michigan | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Lance Taylor | Matt Drinkall |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 24–21 | 10–9 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 24–21 | 10–9 |
| Offensive coordinator | Walt Bell | Jim Chapin / Derek Fulton |
| Defensive coordinator | Greer Martini / Duane Vaughn | Sean Cronin |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Western Michigan won 3 and Central Michigan 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 24 Western Michigan won | ||
| Nov 19, 2024 | Western Michigan 14, Central Michigan 16 Central Michigan won | ||
| Nov 7, 2023 | Central Michigan 28, Western Michigan 38 Western Michigan won | ||
| Nov 16, 2022 | Western Michigan 12, Central Michigan 10 Western Michigan won | ||
| Nov 3, 2021 | Central Michigan 42, Western Michigan 30 Central Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Western Michigan Broncos
- Western Michigan Broncos team stats
- Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos (Oct 31)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 7, Western Michigan Broncos 38 (Oct 10)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Central Michigan Chippewas
- Central Michigan Chippewas team stats
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 14, Ohio Bobcats 31 (Oct 10)
- Akron Zips 17, Central Michigan Chippewas 41 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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