UTEP Miners vs New Mexico Lobos Final — October 3, 2026
UTEPOffense2026 regular season to dateUNM
UTEPDefenseUNMUTEPLast 10 gamesUNMRest & travelrest and travel
UTEPRest & travelUNMAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UTEP (0-3) visited New Mexico (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 4:00 PM ET.
UTEP has the 126th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 123rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, New Mexico has the 84th-ranked offense and the 6th-ranked defense. When UTEP has the ball, a 126th-ranked offense (−0.222 EPA per play) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.262 allowed); when New Mexico has it, a 84th-ranked offense (−0.023) meets a 123rd-ranked defense (+0.245 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UTEP offense is at 37.6% (123rd) and the New Mexico offense at 45.0% (47th). UTEP scores 8.0 points per game (137th) and allows 45.3 (136th); New Mexico scores 28.7 (56th) and allows 13.0 (7th).
New Mexico closed as a 23.5-point favorite at home against UTEP. The spread opened at New Mexico -21. The total closed at 47.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UTEP +1300, New Mexico -4641) prices UTEP at 7% and New Mexico at 93%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UTEP Miners 7, New Mexico Lobos 61
New Mexico Lobos won by 54.
- Against the closing spread (New Mexico Lobos -23.5): New Mexico Lobos covered.
- Combined score 68 vs the closing total of 47.5: Over.
- New Mexico Lobos closed at -4641 on the moneyline (a 93% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward New Mexico Lobos.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UTEP Miners 7%, New Mexico Lobos 93%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, New Mexico Lobos would win 100% of the time (UTEP Miners 0%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured New Mexico Lobos. Here is where that came from.
| UTEP | Points added | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| -13.4 | Passingdropbacks | +5.9 |
| +2.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.4 |
| +8.7 | Explosive plays5 plays · 5 plays | +15.1 |
| -13.3 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -2.7 |
| +4.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.0 |
| -6.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.9 |
| +0.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 0 · 4 of 6 | +11.5 |
| -17.6 | All plays | +20.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 19.3 points to New Mexico Lobos. The final margin was 54.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
New Mexico Lobos closed as the market favourite at 93% and won.
The line moved toward New Mexico Lobos before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UTEP +21 (-110)
UTEP +23.5 (-106)
New Mexico -2256 92%
New Mexico -4641 93%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts65
- Completion %66.2%70th
- Passing yards496221st
- Yards per attempt7.6106th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards196145th
- Season line40 carries, 196 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards143284th
- Season line10 catches, 143 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles27121st
- Attempts44
- Completion %47.7%
- Passing yards387
- Yards per attempt8.8
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards28563rd
- Season line57 carries, 285 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards169219th
- Season line10 catches, 169 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles20325th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | UTEP | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUTEP offense vs New Mexico defense | 36.7%102nd | 27.7%2nd |
| Early-down success rateNew Mexico offense vs UTEP defense | 49.1%137th | 40.0%63rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUTEP offense vs New Mexico defense | 17.4%136th | 40.6%78th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico offense vs UTEP defense | 61.9%137th | 39.4%72nd |
| Explosive play rateUTEP offense vs New Mexico defense | 3.8%126th | 4.7%18th |
| Explosive play rateNew Mexico offense vs UTEP defense | 7.9%96th | 5.7%96th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 41.0%119th-highest | 39.2%125th-highest |
On 3rd down UTEP converts 17.4% (136th) against a New Mexico defense allowing 40.6% (78th).
On 3rd down New Mexico converts 39.4% (72nd) against a UTEP defense allowing 61.9% (137th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | UTEP | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Scotty Walden | Jason Eck |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 6–22 | 12–5 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 7–25 | 12–5 |
| Offensive coordinator | Joe Pappalardo / Lanear Sampson | Luke Schleusner |
| Defensive coordinator | Kyle Beyer / Kelvin Sigler | Spence Nowinsky |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: UTEP won 1 and New Mexico 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2022 | UTEP 10, New Mexico 27 New Mexico won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | New Mexico 13, UTEP 20 UTEP won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UTEP Miners
- UTEP Miners team stats
- UTEP Miners at North Dakota State Bison (Oct 31)
- San Jose State Spartans 24, UTEP Miners 11 (Oct 17)
- Nevada Wolf Pack 30, UTEP Miners 13 (Oct 10)
New Mexico Lobos
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