North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos Final — October 24, 2026
NDSUOffense2026 regular season to dateUNM
NDSUDefenseUNMNDSURecent formUNMNDSUHome and roadseason to dateUNMNDSULast 10 gamesUNMRest & travelrest and travel
NDSURest & travelUNMAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
North Dakota State (5-1) visited New Mexico (4-1) on Saturday, October 24 at 10:00 PM ET.
North Dakota State has the 78th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, New Mexico has the 75th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When North Dakota State has the ball, a 78th-ranked offense (+0.039 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.268 allowed); when New Mexico has it, a 75th-ranked offense (+0.044) meets a 18th-ranked defense (−0.071 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the North Dakota State offense is at 48.8% (49th) and the New Mexico offense at 48.7% (50th). North Dakota State scores 28.0 points per game (55th) and allows 13.2 (3rd); New Mexico scores 33.6 (26th) and allows 11.2 (1st).
North Dakota State is 6-1; its last game was a 31-17 win over Nevada. New Mexico is 5-1 and 5-1 against the spread; its last game was a 21-10 win over Hawai'i.
New Mexico closed as a 4.5-point favorite at home against North Dakota State. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 39.5, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (North Dakota State +160, New Mexico -200) prices North Dakota State at 37% and New Mexico at 63%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
North Dakota State Bison 16, New Mexico Lobos 21
New Mexico Lobos won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (New Mexico Lobos -4.5): New Mexico Lobos covered.
- Combined score 37 vs the closing total of 39.5: Under.
- New Mexico Lobos closed at -200 on the moneyline (a 63% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward New Mexico Lobos.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (North Dakota State Bison 37%, New Mexico Lobos 63%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:02 — New Mexico Lobos ball, 3rd & 12 at UNM 42No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Buchanan rush left for 30 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#6 J.Crumby), 1ST DOWNNew Mexico Lobos 62% → 70% (+8 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 6:33 — North Dakota State Bison ball, 3rd & 4 at UNM 49No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep right to #18 J.Williams caught at UNM11, for 41 yards to the UNM08 (#12 D.Speech), 1ST DOWNNorth Dakota State Bison 26% → 34% (+8 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 2:10 — North Dakota State Bison ball, 3rd & 7 at NDSU 33No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #8 C.Kiel caught at NDSU49, for 16 yards to the NDSU49 (#20 K.Longstreet; #8 O.Arnold), 1ST DOWNNorth Dakota State Bison 23% → 31% (+7 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:10 — New Mexico Lobos ball, 4th & 4 at NDSU 25#31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 12:10North Dakota State Bison 16% → 25% (+9 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:57 — North Dakota State Bison ball, 3rd & 5 at NDSU 30Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #0 A.Brawley at UNM44 #0 A.Brawley return 56 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:57 #41 N.Romero kick attempt good (H:…New Mexico Lobos 78% → 93% (+15 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| North Dakota State | Points added | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| -8.8 | Passingdropbacks | -6.4 |
| -2.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.5 |
| +6.9 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +10.8 |
| -11.2 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.2 |
| +1.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -9.3 |
| -0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.9 |
| +1.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 1 of 2 | +2.2 |
| -12.8 | All plays | -14.4 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 11.2 points to North Dakota State Bison. The final margin was 5.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
New Mexico Lobos closed as the market favourite at 63% and won.
The line moved toward New Mexico Lobos before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
North Dakota State +4.5 (-110)
North Dakota State +4.5 (-109)
New Mexico -185 62%
New Mexico -200 63%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts163
- Completion %65.0%77th
- Passing yards1,272119th
- Yards per attempt7.892nd
- TD–INT10–5
- Rushing yards354111th
- Season line81 carries, 354 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards43260th
- Season line28 catches, 432 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5158th
- Attempts62
- Completion %58.1%
- Passing yards503
- Yards per attempt8.1
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards42278th
- Season line85 carries, 422 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards240264th
- Season line12 catches, 240 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles32370th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | North Dakota State | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNorth Dakota State offense vs New Mexico defense | 45.5%42nd | 31.7%2nd |
| Early-down success rateNew Mexico offense vs North Dakota State defense | 39.3%21st | 42.2%84th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Dakota State offense vs New Mexico defense | 43.1%45th | 36.5%42nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico offense vs North Dakota State defense | 37.0%46th | 43.4%42nd |
| Explosive play rateNorth Dakota State offense vs New Mexico defense | 7.2%53rd | 5.4%27th |
| Explosive play rateNew Mexico offense vs North Dakota State defense | 3.8%5th | 6.8%69th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 39.3%127th-highest | 36.0%132nd-highest |
On 3rd down North Dakota State converts 43.1% (45th) against a New Mexico defense allowing 36.5% (42nd).
On 3rd down New Mexico converts 43.4% (42nd) against a North Dakota State defense allowing 37.0% (46th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | North Dakota State | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tim Polasek | Jason Eck |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 32–4 | 14–5 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 6–1 | 14–5 |
| Offensive coordinator | Dan Larson | Luke Schleusner |
| Defensive coordinator | Grant Olson | Spence Nowinsky |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
North Dakota State Bison
- North Dakota State Bison team stats
- UTEP Miners at North Dakota State Bison (Oct 31)
- Nevada Wolf Pack 17, North Dakota State Bison 31 (Oct 17)
- North Dakota State Bison 7, UNLV Rebels 13 (Oct 10)
- Wyoming Cowboys 0, North Dakota State Bison 28 (Oct 3)
New Mexico Lobos
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
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- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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