Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans Final — October 25, 2026
CLEStarting quarterbacksexpected startersTEN
CLEOffense2026 regular season to dateTENCLEDefenseTENCLERecent formTENCLEHome and roadseason to dateTENInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CLERest & travelTENCLEKey injuriesTENAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Browns (4-2) visited the Titans (1-5) at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 7.
The Browns have the 26th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Titans have the 31st-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When the Browns have the ball, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.087 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.042 allowed); when the Titans have it, a 31st-ranked offense (−0.149) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.033 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Browns offense is at 39.8% (26th) and the Titans offense at 40.3% (24th). Through the air, the Browns average +0.011 EPA per dropback (21st) against a Titans pass defense ranked 27th; the Titans average −0.176 (30th) against a Browns pass defense ranked 11th. The Browns score 17.7 points per game (28th) and allow 20.3 (7th); the Titans score 14.0 (31st) and allow 21.5 (13th).
Over the last five games, the Browns rank 24th on offense and 5th on defense by EPA per play; the Titans rank 30th and 22nd.
Deshaun Watson has a 43.0% success rate (21st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Cam Ward's 41.4% (26th). Per dropback, Watson is at +0.009 EPA to Ward's −0.182, with 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Ward's 4 and 4.
The Browns are 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; their last game was a 13-10 win over the Ravens. The Titans are 1-5 and 3-3 against the spread; their last game was a 26-20 win over the Colts.
The Browns closed as 1.5-point road favorites, with the Titans getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 36.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Browns -130, Titans +110) prices the Browns at 54% and the Titans at 46%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24
Cleveland Browns won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Tennessee Titans +1.5): Cleveland Browns covered.
- Combined score 51 vs the closing total of 36.5: Over.
- Cleveland Browns closed at -130 on the moneyline (a 54% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Cleveland Browns.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Cleveland Browns 54%, Tennessee Titans 46%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 14:09 — Cleveland Browns ball, 4th & 4 at TEN 2525-A.Szmyt 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.Tennessee Titans 25% → 38% (+13 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:33 — Tennessee Titans ball, 4th & 8 at CLE 43(Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to CLE 17 for 26 yards (33-R.Hickman) [54-S.Williams].Tennessee Titans 6% → 21% (+15 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:00 — Tennessee Titans ball, 1st & 10 at CLE 17(Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to CLE 19 for -2 yards (26-M.Harden).Cleveland Browns 79% → 91% (+12 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:13 — Tennessee Titans ball, 3rd & 12 at CLE 19(Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate pushed ob at CLE 1 for 18 yards (26-M.Harden).Tennessee Titans 7% → 37% (+29 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:28 — Cleveland Browns ball, 1st & 10 at CLE 45(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to TEN 19 for 36 yards (23-K.Winston).Cleveland Browns 69% → 86% (+17 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Cleveland Browns won after falling as low as 22% (Q1 7:13).
Game DNA
| Browns | Points added | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Passingdropbacks | -4.3 |
| -2.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.2 |
| +21.8 | Explosive plays14 plays · 9 plays | +14.3 |
| -8.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -6.8 |
| -4.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.3 |
| +1.1 | Penalties8 for 48 yds · 5 for 35 yds | +3.0 |
| +4.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 2 of 4 | -0.7 |
| +6.5 | All plays | +2.6 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 7.7 points to Tennessee Titans. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Cleveland Browns closed as the market favourite at 54% and won.
The line moved toward Cleveland Browns before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Browns -1.5 (-108)
Browns -1.5 (-110)
Titans +105 47%
Titans +110 46%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
KC Concepcion has 186 receiving yards for the Browns (62nd of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.3%. Quinshon Judkins has 221 rushing yards on 73 carries (30th of 40 qualified running backs). Carnell Tate has 344 receiving yards for the Titans (21st of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.7%. Tony Pollard has 349 rushing yards on 87 carries (15th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries73
- Rush yards22130th
- Yards per carry3.037th
- EPA per rush−0.27137th
- Rush success rate27.4%38th
- Targets / catches35 / 22
- Receiving yards18662nd
- Target share20.3%34th
- Yards per target5.375th
- EPA per target+0.03959th
- Targets / catches30 / 19
- Receiving yards16623rd
- Target share17.4%14th
- Yards per target5.531st
- EPA per target+0.19622nd
- Carries87
- Rush yards34915th
- Yards per carry4.020th
- EPA per rush−0.07221st
- Rush success rate40.2%20th
- Targets / catches44 / 29
- Receiving yards34421st
- Target share26.7%12th
- Yards per target7.844th
- EPA per target+0.18252nd
- Targets / catches9 / 5
- Receiving yards30
- Target share5.5%
- Yards per target3.3
- EPA per target−0.387
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Browns | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBrowns offense vs Titans defense | 41.0%21st | 41.7%9th |
| Early-down success rateTitans offense vs Browns defense | 41.5%8th | 40.1%25th |
| Early-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Titans defense | −0.06023rd | +0.03122nd |
| Early-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Browns defense | +0.00517th | −0.15831st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBrowns offense vs Titans defense | 30.8%32nd | 40.5%17th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTitans offense vs Browns defense | 39.5%16th | 34.8%26th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Titans defense | −0.14525th | −0.03318th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Browns defense | −0.07213th | −0.08518th |
| Red-zone TD rateBrowns offense vs Titans defense | 50.0%25th | 60.0%16th |
| Red-zone TD rateTitans offense vs Browns defense | 50.0%5th | 46.7%30th |
| Red-zone success rateBrowns offense vs Titans defense | 35.1%29th | 46.2%22nd |
| Red-zone success rateTitans offense vs Browns defense | 40.9%12th | 40.0%20th |
On early downs the Browns succeed on 41.0% of plays (21st) against a Titans defense that allows 41.7% (9th); on 3rd down they convert 30.8% (32nd) against a defense allowing 40.5% (17th). On early downs the Titans succeed on 40.1% of plays (25th) against a Browns defense that allows 41.5% (8th); on 3rd down they convert 34.8% (26th) against a defense allowing 39.5% (16th). The Browns score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (25th). The Titans score touchdowns on 46.7% of red-zone trips (30th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Browns | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Todd Monken | Robert Saleh |
| Offensive coordinator | Travis Switzer | Brian Daboll |
| Defensive coordinator | Mike Rutenberg | Gus Bradley |
| Offense tendencies | Browns | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | −0.3%10th-highest | −6.3%29th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 63.6%12th-highest | 62.9%13th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 57.9%10th-highest | 57.0%12th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 78.2%1st-highest | 69.1%5th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 3.2%26th-highest | 13.6%3rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 30.930th-slowest | 31.428th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 12.7%27th | 10.1%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 8.6%17th | 5.8%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 4.8%30th | 7.6%21st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 10.8%32nd | 5.0%11th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.72%17th | 1.89%19th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 58.026th-most | 52.832nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Defense | Browns | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 8.2%5th | 7.5%7th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 14.0%13th | 17.8%25th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 8.9%18th | 9.1%20th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 15.8%32nd | 8.7%14th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.86%17th | 1.29%28th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 18.5%6th | 14.6%22nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 20.8%31st | 12.6%3rd |
The Browns run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.3% pass rate over expected, 10th-highest), while the Titans sit at −6.3% (29th-highest). In neutral situations the Browns take 30.9 seconds between snaps and the Titans 31.4, so the Browns play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Browns have gone for it 4 of 5 times and the Titans 2 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Browns won 3 and the Titans 4. In the most recent meeting (December 7, 2025), the Titans won 31-29; the Browns averaged −0.057 EPA per play; the Titans averaged −0.093 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | Titans 31, Browns 29 Titans won | Browns -4.5 Titans covered | 33.5 over | Browns −0.057 · Titans −0.093 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Titans 3, Browns 27 Browns won | Browns -3.5 Browns covered | 38 under | Browns +0.022 · Titans −0.438 |
| Dec 6, 2020 | Browns 41, Titans 35 Browns won | Titans -4 Browns covered | 54 over | Browns +0.267 · Titans +0.040 |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Titans 43, Browns 13 Titans won | Browns -5.5 Titans covered | 44 over | Browns −0.352 · Titans +0.135 |
| Oct 22, 2017 | Titans 12, Browns 9 Titans won | Titans -5.5 Browns covered | 42.5 under | Browns −0.277 · Titans −0.201 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Cleveland Browns
- Cleveland Browns team stats
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 1)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
Tennessee Titans
- Tennessee Titans team stats
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (Nov 1)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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