Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Jaguars (2-1) visit the Bengals (2-1) at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Jaguars have the 6th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 4th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bengals have the 9th-ranked offense and the 5th-ranked defense. When the Jaguars have the ball, a 6th-ranked offense (+0.174 EPA per play) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.093 allowed); when the Bengals have it, a 9th-ranked offense (+0.058) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.104 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Jaguars offense is at 51.5% (3rd) and the Bengals offense at 44.3% (15th). Through the air, the Jaguars average +0.255 EPA per dropback (6th) against a Bengals pass defense ranked 7th; the Bengals average +0.117 (14th) against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 3rd. The Jaguars score 27.3 points per game (10th) and allow 12.0 (1st); the Bengals score 26.7 (12th) and allow 21.0 (13th).
Trevor Lawrence has a 53.8% success rate (3rd of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Joe Burrow's 47.4% (16th). Per dropback, Lawrence is at +0.255 EPA to Burrow's +0.117, with 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Burrow's 6 and 1.
The Jaguars are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 35-6 win over the Patriots. The Bengals are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 30-27 loss to the Steelers.
The Bengals are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Jaguars. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Jaguars +119, Bengals -141) prices the Jaguars at 44% and the Bengals at 56%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Jaguars2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks86
- Success rate53.8%3rd
- EPA per dropback+0.2557th
- Completion %67.5%13th
- CPOE+8.62nd
- Yards per attempt7.710th
- TD–INT7–2
- Sack rate4.7%10th
- Dropbacks113
- Success rate47.4%16th
- EPA per dropback+0.11714th
- Completion %70.9%5th
- CPOE+3.415th
- Yards per attempt7.215th
- TD–INT6–1
- Sack rate6.2%19th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Parker Washington leads the Jaguars wide receivers with 221 receiving yards (14th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 30.3%. Bhayshul Tuten has 204 rushing yards on 43 carries (11th of 44 qualified running backs). Ja'Marr Chase leads the Bengals wide receivers with 185 receiving yards (21st of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.5%. Chase Brown has 197 rushing yards on 49 carries (13th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries43
- Rush yards20411th
- Yards per carry4.79th
- EPA per rush+0.0626th
- Rush success rate51.2%5th
- Targets / catches23 / 15
- Receiving yards22114th
- Target share30.3%5th
- Yards per target9.629th
- EPA per target+0.56722nd
- Targets / catches10 / 7
- Receiving yards7225th
- Target share13.2%24th
- Yards per target7.217th
- EPA per target−0.04829th
- Carries49
- Rush yards19713th
- Yards per carry4.023rd
- EPA per rush−0.08324th
- Rush success rate40.8%19th
- Targets / catches25 / 18
- Receiving yards18521st
- Target share24.5%22nd
- Yards per target7.452nd
- EPA per target+0.42634th
- Targets / catches10 / 8
- Receiving yards11514th
- Target share14.1%21st
- Yards per target11.53rd
- EPA per target+1.1941st
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Jaguars | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJaguars offense vs Bengals defense | 49.3%5th | 41.4%12th |
| Early-down success rateBengals offense vs Jaguars defense | 45.8%23rd | 42.9%18th |
| Early-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Bengals defense | +0.1327th | −0.02613th |
| Early-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Jaguars defense | +0.00618th | +0.01015th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJaguars offense vs Bengals defense | 54.5%4th | 43.6%21st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBengals offense vs Jaguars defense | 30.0%4th | 46.3%8th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Bengals defense | +0.3444th | −0.00418th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.5911st | −0.00315th |
| Red-zone TD rateJaguars offense vs Bengals defense | 88.9%2nd | 27.3%3rd |
| Red-zone TD rateBengals offense vs Jaguars defense | 20.0%2nd | 50.0%22nd |
| Red-zone success rateJaguars offense vs Bengals defense | 53.8%4th | 25.0%3rd |
| Red-zone success rateBengals offense vs Jaguars defense | 21.4%2nd | 52.4%6th |
On early downs the Jaguars succeed on 49.3% of plays (5th) against a Bengals defense that allows 41.4% (12th); on 3rd down they convert 54.5% (4th) against a defense allowing 43.6% (21st). On early downs the Bengals succeed on 42.9% of plays (18th) against a Jaguars defense that allows 45.8% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 46.3% (8th) against a defense allowing 30.0% (4th). The Jaguars score touchdowns on 88.9% of red-zone trips (2nd). The Bengals score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (22nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Jaguars | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Liam Coen | Zac Taylor |
| Offensive coordinator | Grant Udinski | Dan Pitcher |
| Defensive coordinator | Anthony Campanile | Al Golden |
| Offense tendencies | Jaguars | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −3.9%23rd-highest | 4.4%3rd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 51.5%30th-highest | 64.2%8th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 50.7%25th-highest | 58.6%8th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 52.7%24th-highest | 68.8%4th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 7.2%11th-highest | 4.5%17th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.612th-slowest | 32.422nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 18.1%9th | 18.9%6th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.6%11th | 10.4%6th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 11.2%11th | 12.7%4th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 4.7%8th | 6.2%18th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 1.20%13th | 1.14%11th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 55.727th-most | 58.723rd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 0 of 2 | 2 of 5 |
| Defense | Jaguars | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 8.2%5th | 7.5%7th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 21.1%29th | 16.3%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 14.4%32nd | 9.8%21st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 7.5%9th | 10.0%19th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 3.64%2nd | 2.73%9th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.3%10th | 15.8%16th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.4%24th | 18.6%27th |
The Jaguars run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−3.9% pass rate over expected, 23rd-highest), while the Bengals sit at 4.4% (3rd-highest). In neutral situations the Jaguars take 33.6 seconds between snaps and the Bengals 32.4, so the Bengals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Jaguars have gone for it 0 of 2 times and the Bengals 2 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Jaguars have 7 days between games and the Bengals 7. The Jaguars travel about 628 miles.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
JaguarsBengalsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Jaguars won 2 and the Bengals 4. In the most recent meeting (September 14, 2025), the Bengals won 31-27; the Bengals averaged −0.007 EPA per play; the Jaguars averaged +0.093 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2025 | Jaguars 27, Bengals 31 Bengals won | Bengals -3.5 Bengals covered | 49.5 over | Bengals −0.007 · Jaguars +0.093 |
| Dec 4, 2023 | Bengals 34, Jaguars 31 Bengals won | Jaguars -10 Bengals covered | 41 over | Bengals +0.194 · Jaguars +0.186 |
| Sep 30, 2021 | Jaguars 21, Bengals 24 Bengals won | Bengals -7.5 Jaguars covered | 46 under | Bengals +0.327 · Jaguars +0.183 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | Jaguars 25, Bengals 33 Bengals won | Bengals -1 Bengals covered | 50 over | Bengals +0.248 · Jaguars +0.165 |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Jaguars 27, Bengals 17 Jaguars won | Jaguars -4 Jaguars covered | 44.5 under | Bengals −0.324 · Jaguars +0.025 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Jaguars +2.5 (-107)
Jaguars +2.5 (-105)
Bengals -140 56%
Bengals -141 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Jaguars +3-112ProphetX
- Bengals -3+110ProphetX
- Over 51-115Hard Rock
- Under 51.5+100Polymarket
- Jaguars+133Novig
- Bengals-134FanDuel
Dig deeper
Teams
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jacksonville Jaguars team stats
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 (Sep 13)
Cincinnati Bengals
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