Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Final — September 27, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Steelers +3): Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
- Combined score 57 vs the closing total of 42.5: Over.
- Pittsburgh Steelers closed at +146 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Bengals (2-0) visited the Steelers (1-1) at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 3.
The Bengals have the 19th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 2nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Steelers have the 31st-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense. When the Bengals have the ball, a 19th-ranked offense (−0.045 EPA per play) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.202 allowed); when the Steelers have it, a 31st-ranked offense (−0.331) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.222 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bengals offense is at 39.2% (24th) and the Steelers offense at 35.2% (31st). Through the air, the Bengals average −0.026 EPA per dropback (22nd) against a Steelers pass defense ranked 1st; the Steelers average −0.407 (31st) against a Bengals pass defense ranked 3rd. The Bengals score 26.5 points per game (10th) and allow 16.5 (8th); the Steelers score 11.5 (31st) and allow 16.5 (8th).
Joe Burrow has a 42.1% success rate (26th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Aaron Rodgers' 39.5% (28th). Per dropback, Burrow is at −0.026 EPA to Rodgers' −0.387, with 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Rodgers' 1 and 1.
The Bengals are 2-0 and 2-0 against the spread; their last game was a 20-6 win over the Texans. The Steelers are 1-1 and 1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 20-3 loss to the Patriots.
The Bengals closed as 3-point road favorites, with the Steelers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Bengals -3.5. The total closed at 42.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bengals -173, Steelers +146) prices the Bengals at 61% and the Steelers at 39%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Bengals2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks73
- Success rate42.1%26th
- EPA per dropback−0.02623rd
- Completion %68.2%10th
- CPOE+0.222nd
- Yards per attempt7.022nd
- TD–INT3–1
- Sack rate8.2%25th
- Dropbacks86
- Success rate39.5%28th
- EPA per dropback−0.38731st
- Completion %59.5%26th
- CPOE−2.526th
- Yards per attempt5.231st
- TD–INT1–1
- Sack rate7.0%19th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Tee Higgins leads the Bengals wide receivers with 154 receiving yards (11th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.6%. Chase Brown has 136 rushing yards on 36 carries (12th of 45 qualified running backs). DK Metcalf leads the Steelers wide receivers with 67 receiving yards (58th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.7%. Jaylen Warren has 89 rushing yards on 21 carries (29th of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries36
- Rush yards13612th
- Yards per carry3.832nd
- EPA per rush−0.13727th
- Rush success rate36.1%28th
- Targets / catches16 / 8
- Receiving yards15411th
- Target share24.6%20th
- Yards per target9.631st
- EPA per target+0.48730th
- Targets / catches7 / 5
- Receiving yards7812th
- Target share20.6%8th
- Yards per target11.14th
- EPA per target+0.9805th
- Carries21
- Rush yards8929th
- Yards per carry4.220th
- EPA per rush−0.16630th
- Rush success rate33.3%33rd
- Targets / catches19 / 8
- Receiving yards6758th
- Target share25.7%16th
- Yards per target3.578th
- EPA per target−0.45475th
- Targets / catches10 / 9
- Receiving yards7812th
- Target share13.5%19th
- Yards per target7.817th
- EPA per target+0.34116th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bengals | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBengals offense vs Steelers defense | 37.4%29th | 42.9%17th |
| Early-down success rateSteelers offense vs Bengals defense | 39.6%9th | 38.6%27th |
| Early-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Steelers defense | −0.03920th | −0.1275th |
| Early-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Bengals defense | −0.0869th | −0.19031st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBengals offense vs Steelers defense | 44.8%11th | 25.0%3rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSteelers offense vs Bengals defense | 37.0%12th | 20.8%31st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Steelers defense | −0.06419th | −0.4675th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Bengals defense | −0.25210th | −0.85932nd |
| Red-zone TD rateBengals offense vs Steelers defense | 50.0%21st | 0.0%1st |
| Red-zone TD rateSteelers offense vs Bengals defense | 25.0%5th | 33.3%28th |
| Red-zone success rateBengals offense vs Steelers defense | 47.1%11th | 0.0%1st |
| Red-zone success rateSteelers offense vs Bengals defense | 21.1%5th | 25.0%29th |
On early downs the Bengals succeed on 37.4% of plays (29th) against a Steelers defense that allows 42.9% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 44.8% (11th) against a defense allowing 25.0% (3rd). On early downs the Steelers succeed on 38.6% of plays (27th) against a Bengals defense that allows 39.6% (9th); on 3rd down they convert 20.8% (31st) against a defense allowing 37.0% (12th). The Bengals score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (21st). The Steelers score touchdowns on 33.3% of red-zone trips (28th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bengals | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Zac Taylor | Mike McCarthy |
| Offensive coordinator | Dan Pitcher | Brian Angelichio |
| Defensive coordinator | Al Golden | Patrick Graham |
| Offense tendencies | Bengals | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | 4.2%6th-highest | 4.2%5th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 60.8%14th-highest | 69.5%1st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 53.8%16th-highest | 63.4%4th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 66.7%8th-highest | 64.8%11th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 3.3%24th-highest | 10.2%6th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 31.129th-slowest | 32.224th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 20.9%4th | 10.8%27th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 10.4%9th | 4.8%30th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 12.8%8th | 7.7%21st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 8.2%24th | 6.7%17th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 0.83%7th | 2.34%23rd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 60.013th-most | 64.08th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Defense | Bengals | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 8.2%7th | 13.2%1st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 15.7%17th | 17.4%25th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 7.9%14th | 15.2%31st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 6.7%8th | 10.9%22nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 3.15%5th | 3.70%3rd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 13.4%24th | 20.8%5th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 20.5%29th | 14.6%11th |
The Bengals pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (4.2% pass rate over expected, 6th-highest), while the Steelers sit at 4.2% (5th-highest). In neutral situations the Bengals take 31.1 seconds between snaps and the Steelers 32.2, so the Bengals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bengals have gone for it 0 of 2 times and the Steelers 1 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Andrei Iosivas WROutThumb
- Jamel Dean CBQuestionableAnkle
- Joey Porter Jr. CBQuestionable
- Jaylen Warren RBQuestionableShoulder
- Michael Pittman WRQuestionableFoot
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Bengals have 7 days between games and the Steelers 7. The Bengals travel about 257 miles. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
BengalsSteelersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Bengals won 7 and the Steelers 16. In the most recent meeting (November 16, 2025), the Steelers won 34-12; the Bengals averaged −0.237 EPA per play; the Steelers averaged +0.199 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | Bengals 12, Steelers 34 Steelers won | Steelers -5.5 Steelers covered | 48.5 under | Bengals −0.237 · Steelers +0.199 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Steelers 31, Bengals 33 Bengals won | Steelers -5.5 Bengals covered | 45.5 over | Bengals +0.329 · Steelers +0.365 |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Bengals 19, Steelers 17 Bengals won | Bengals -2.5 Steelers covered | 48.5 under | Bengals −0.029 · Steelers −0.175 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Steelers 44, Bengals 38 Steelers won | Bengals -3 Steelers covered | 46 over | Bengals 0.000 · Steelers +0.276 |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Bengals 11, Steelers 34 Steelers won | Bengals -3 Steelers covered | 39.5 over | Bengals −0.209 · Steelers +0.220 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Bengals -3.5 (-108)
Bengals -3 (-118)
Steelers +145 39%
Steelers +146 39%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Cincinnati Bengals
- Cincinnati Bengals team stats
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (Oct 4)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 (Sep 13)
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pittsburgh Steelers team stats
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 (Sep 20)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 27, 2026
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 (Sep 27)
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
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