Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Final — September 27, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10
Kansas City Chiefs won by 14.
- Against the closing spread (Miami Dolphins +9.5): Kansas City Chiefs covered.
- Combined score 34 vs the closing total of 45.5: Under.
- Kansas City Chiefs closed at -600 on the moneyline (a 82% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Chiefs (2-0) visited the Dolphins (0-2) at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 3.
The Chiefs have the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 12th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the 27th-ranked offense and the 29th-ranked defense. When the Chiefs have the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.200 EPA per play) meets a 29th-ranked defense (+0.172 allowed); when the Dolphins have it, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.112) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.056 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chiefs offense is at 49.3% (6th) and the Dolphins offense at 37.7% (27th). Through the air, the Chiefs average +0.176 EPA per dropback (11th) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 32nd; the Dolphins average −0.049 (24th) against a Chiefs pass defense ranked 4th. The Chiefs score 32.0 points per game (3rd) and allow 20.0 (11th); the Dolphins score 13.0 (30th) and allow 31.0 (28th).
Patrick Mahomes has a 48.8% success rate (9th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Malik Willis' 37.3% (30th). Per dropback, Mahomes is at +0.176 EPA to Willis' −0.049, with 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Willis' 1 and 1.
The Chiefs are 2-0 and 1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 33-30 win over the Colts. The Dolphins are 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread; their last game was a 35-13 loss to the 49ers.
The Chiefs closed as 9.5-point road favorites, with the Dolphins getting the points at home. The spread opened at Chiefs -10.5. The total closed 45.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Chiefs -600, Dolphins +435) prices the Chiefs at 82% and the Dolphins at 18%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Chiefs2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks84
- Success rate48.8%9th
- EPA per dropback+0.17613th
- Completion %63.5%22nd
- CPOE−2.025th
- Yards per attempt7.610th
- TD–INT5–1
- Sack rate4.8%9th
- Dropbacks65
- Success rate37.3%30th
- EPA per dropback−0.04924th
- Completion %58.0%29th
- CPOE−8.730th
- Yards per attempt8.39th
- TD–INT1–1
- Sack rate13.8%33rd
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs wide receivers with 43 receiving yards (71st of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.1%. Kenneth Walker III has 290 rushing yards on 47 carries (1st of 45 qualified running backs). Malik Washington leads the Dolphins wide receivers with 96 receiving yards (30th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.0%. De'Von Achane has 110 rushing yards on 31 carries (19th of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries47
- Rush yards2901st
- Yards per carry6.22nd
- EPA per rush+0.2332nd
- Rush success rate51.1%5th
- Targets / catches13 / 8
- Receiving yards4371st
- Target share19.1%40th
- Yards per target3.380th
- EPA per target−0.61681st
- Targets / catches16 / 12
- Receiving yards1723rd
- Target share23.5%6th
- Yards per target10.86th
- EPA per target+0.63010th
- Carries31
- Rush yards11019th
- Yards per carry3.533rd
- EPA per rush−0.21332nd
- Rush success rate35.5%29th
- Targets / catches13 / 7
- Receiving yards9630th
- Target share26.0%15th
- Yards per target7.449th
- EPA per target−0.11463rd
- Targets / catches5 / 4
- Receiving yards3528th
- Target share10.0%28th
- Yards per target7.020th
- EPA per target+0.35915th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chiefs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChiefs offense vs Dolphins defense | 47.7%6th | 46.2%25th |
| Early-down success rateDolphins offense vs Chiefs defense | 43.9%21st | 34.6%30th |
| Early-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.05812th | +0.02918th |
| Early-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Chiefs defense | +0.02717th | −0.13326th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChiefs offense vs Dolphins defense | 48.3%8th | 52.6%29th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDolphins offense vs Chiefs defense | 29.2%6th | 36.0%21st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.2877th | +0.77232nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.4087th | +0.09715th |
| Red-zone TD rateChiefs offense vs Dolphins defense | 60.0%18th | 88.9%29th |
| Red-zone TD rateDolphins offense vs Chiefs defense | 60.0%14th | 25.0%30th |
| Red-zone success rateChiefs offense vs Dolphins defense | 36.0%23rd | 54.2%22nd |
| Red-zone success rateDolphins offense vs Chiefs defense | 50.0%19th | 47.1%11th |
On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 47.7% of plays (6th) against a Dolphins defense that allows 46.2% (25th); on 3rd down they convert 48.3% (8th) against a defense allowing 52.6% (29th). On early downs the Dolphins succeed on 34.6% of plays (30th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 43.9% (21st); on 3rd down they convert 36.0% (21st) against a defense allowing 29.2% (6th). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 60.0% of red-zone trips (18th). The Dolphins score touchdowns on 25.0% of red-zone trips (30th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chiefs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Andy Reid | Jeff Hafley |
| Offensive coordinator | Eric Bieniemy | Bobby Slowik |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Spagnuolo | Sean Duggan |
| Offense tendencies | Chiefs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | 3.2%7th-highest | −9.8%30th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 59.2%18th-highest | 61.3%12th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 56.0%14th-highest | 56.4%12th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 65.5%9th-highest | 58.5%15th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 0.7%31st-highest | 0.9%28th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 31.527th-slowest | 33.315th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 17.5%9th | 14.3%19th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 8.8%15th | 12.5%4th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 12.1%9th | 5.0%28th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 4.8%8th | 13.8%32nd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 0.70%4th | 1.89%19th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 71.03rd-most | 53.028th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Defense | Chiefs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 6.1%21st | 0.0%32nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 6.5%3rd | 21.4%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 3.2%5th | 10.7%22nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 11.9%25th | 7.3%9th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 2.75%9th | 1.80%12th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.7%14th | 7.1%32nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 10.7%3rd | 21.5%31st |
The Chiefs pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.2% pass rate over expected, 7th-highest), while the Dolphins sit at −9.8% (30th-highest). In neutral situations the Chiefs take 31.5 seconds between snaps and the Dolphins 33.3, so the Chiefs play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chiefs have gone for it 4 of 4 times and the Dolphins 1 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Josh Simmons TOutBack
- Chamarri Conner SDoubtfulKnee
- Caleb Douglas WROutAnkle
- Julius Brents CBQuestionableKnee
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Chiefs have 7 days between games and the Dolphins 7. The Chiefs travel about 1,225 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour ahead.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
ChiefsDolphinsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Chiefs won 4 and the Dolphins 0. In the most recent meeting (January 13, 2024), the Chiefs won 26-7; the Chiefs averaged +0.051 EPA per play; the Dolphins averaged −0.217 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 playoffs | Dolphins 7, Chiefs 26 Chiefs won | Chiefs -4.5 Chiefs covered | 43.5 under | Chiefs +0.051 · Dolphins −0.217 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Dolphins 14, Chiefs 21 Chiefs won | Chiefs -1 Chiefs covered | 51 under | Chiefs +0.018 · Dolphins −0.131 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27 Chiefs won | Chiefs -7.5 Dolphins covered | 51.5 over | Chiefs +0.027 · Dolphins −0.007 |
| Dec 24, 2017 | Dolphins 13, Chiefs 29 Chiefs won | Chiefs -11 Chiefs covered | 43.5 under | Chiefs +0.116 · Dolphins −0.129 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
Chiefs -9.5 (-115)
Dolphins +475 17%
Dolphins +435 18%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Oct 4)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
- Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 (Sep 14)
Miami Dolphins
- Miami Dolphins team stats
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 (Sep 20)
- Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 27, 2026
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 (Sep 27)
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
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