Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Final — September 27, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19
Indianapolis Colts won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Indianapolis Colts +1.5): Indianapolis Colts covered.
- Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 42.5: Under.
- Indianapolis Colts closed at +102 on the moneyline (a 47% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Texans (0-2) visited the Colts (0-2) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 3.
The Texans have the 26th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 20th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Colts have the 18th-ranked offense and the 32nd-ranked defense. When the Texans have the ball, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.092 EPA per play) meets a 32nd-ranked defense (+0.269 allowed); when the Colts have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.026) meets a 20th-ranked defense (+0.060 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texans offense is at 39.6% (23rd) and the Colts offense at 44.8% (12th). Through the air, the Texans average −0.027 EPA per dropback (23rd) against a Colts pass defense ranked 29th; the Colts average −0.162 (29th) against a Texans pass defense ranked 24th. The Texans score 18.5 points per game (21st) and allow 28.0 (24th); the Colts score 26.5 (10th) and allow 37.0 (32nd).
Daniel Jones has a 44.1% success rate (20th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to C.J. Stroud's 43.7% (22nd). Per dropback, Jones is at −0.162 EPA to Stroud's +0.005, with 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Stroud's 2 and 0.
The Texans are 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread; their last game was a 20-6 loss to the Bengals. The Colts are 0-2 and 1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 33-30 loss to the Chiefs.
The Texans closed as 1.5-point road favorites, with the Colts getting the points at home. The spread opened at Texans -2.5. The total closed at 42.5, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texans -123, Colts +102) prices the Texans at 53% and the Colts at 47%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Texans2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks102
- Success rate43.7%22nd
- EPA per dropback+0.00521st
- Completion %61.5%24th
- CPOE−3.527th
- Yards per attempt6.925th
- TD–INT2–0
- Sack rate6.9%17th
- Dropbacks67
- Success rate44.1%20th
- EPA per dropback−0.16229th
- Completion %66.1%18th
- CPOE−0.523rd
- Yards per attempt6.128th
- TD–INT2–2
- Sack rate3.0%5th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Xavier Hutchinson leads the Texans wide receivers with 69 receiving yards (55th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.2%. David Montgomery has 70 rushing yards on 26 carries (36th of 45 qualified running backs). Josh Downs leads the Colts wide receivers with 109 receiving yards (25th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.0%. Jonathan Taylor has 190 rushing yards on 43 carries (5th of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries26
- Rush yards7036th
- Yards per carry2.742nd
- EPA per rush−0.25836th
- Rush success rate30.8%37th
- Targets / catches15 / 6
- Receiving yards6955th
- Target share17.2%53rd
- Yards per target4.669th
- EPA per target−0.07462nd
- Targets / catches22 / 16
- Receiving yards1752nd
- Target share25.3%3rd
- Yards per target8.016th
- EPA per target+0.22618th
- Carries43
- Rush yards1905th
- Yards per carry4.418th
- EPA per rush+0.1406th
- Rush success rate46.5%9th
- Targets / catches13 / 9
- Receiving yards10925th
- Target share22.0%28th
- Yards per target8.438th
- EPA per target+0.89012th
- Targets / catches12 / 9
- Receiving yards3429th
- Target share20.3%9th
- Yards per target2.831st
- EPA per target−0.05125th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Texans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 40.0%24th | 55.3%31st |
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 35.7%3rd | 46.2%11th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Colts defense | +0.01116th | +0.22432nd |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Texans defense | +0.03019th | −0.04321st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 36.4%19th | 38.1%14th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 33.3%10th | 36.4%19th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Colts defense | −0.17223rd | +0.49228th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Texans defense | +0.38725th | −0.00117th |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 44.4%24th | 66.7%16th |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 50.0%9th | 83.3%4th |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 23.8%30th | 42.3%12th |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 20.0%3rd | 61.1%2nd |
On early downs the Texans succeed on 40.0% of plays (24th) against a Colts defense that allows 55.3% (31st); on 3rd down they convert 36.4% (19th) against a defense allowing 38.1% (14th). On early downs the Colts succeed on 46.2% of plays (11th) against a Texans defense that allows 35.7% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 36.4% (19th) against a defense allowing 33.3% (10th). The Texans score touchdowns on 44.4% of red-zone trips (24th). The Colts score touchdowns on 83.3% of red-zone trips (4th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Texans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | DeMeco Ryans | Shane Steichen |
| Offensive coordinator | Nick Caley | Jim Bob Cooter |
| Defensive coordinator | Matt Burke | Lou Anarumo |
| Offense tendencies | Texans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | −0.4%13th-highest | −7.9%25th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 69.1%2nd-highest | 57.8%21st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 67.3%1st-highest | 52.7%18th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 74.5%1st-highest | 52.6%24th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 10.7%5th-highest | 6.0%14th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 32.719th-slowest | 35.14th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 18.8%7th | 7.7%31st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.4%14th | 6.2%26th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 8.7%16th | 18.4%2nd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 6.8%18th | 3.0%5th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 1.34%14th | 2.59%26th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 74.51st-most | 58.018th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Texans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 10.1%3rd | 5.0%23rd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 29.5%32nd | 25.0%31st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 16.4%32nd | 10.5%21st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 10.0%18th | 12.1%27th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 0.00%30th | 0.73%29th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 17.6%12th | 8.8%29th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 15.5%12th | 19.4%25th |
The Texans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.4% pass rate over expected, 13th-highest), while the Colts sit at −7.9% (25th-highest). In neutral situations the Texans take 32.7 seconds between snaps and the Colts 35.1, so the Texans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Texans have gone for it 4 of 6 times and the Colts 2 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Ed Ingram GOutGroin
- M.J. Stewart SOutKnee
- Nico Collins WROutHamstring
- Trent Brown TQuestionableKnee
- Charvarius Ward CBQuestionableGroin
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Texans have 7 days between games and the Colts 7. The Texans travel about 871 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour ahead.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
TexansColtsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Texans won 11 and the Colts 11, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Texans won 38-30; the Texans averaged −0.019 EPA per play; the Colts averaged −0.073 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Colts 30, Texans 38 Texans won | Texans -9.5 Colts covered | 37.5 over | Texans −0.019 · Colts −0.073 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Texans 20, Colts 16 Texans won | Colts -3 Texans covered | 44.5 under | Texans +0.011 · Colts −0.116 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Colts 20, Texans 23 Texans won | Texans -5 Colts covered | 45 under | Texans −0.069 · Colts −0.093 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Texans 29, Colts 27 Texans won | Texans -3 Colts covered | 49 over | Texans +0.141 · Colts +0.052 |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Texans 23, Colts 19 Texans won | Texans -1.5 Texans covered | 47.5 under | Texans +0.120 · Colts −0.010 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Texans -2.5 (-109)
Texans -1.5 (-110)
Colts +114 45%
Colts +102 47%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (Oct 4)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 (Sep 13)
Indianapolis Colts
- Indianapolis Colts team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (Oct 4)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
- Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 27, 2026
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 (Sep 27)
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
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