Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos Final — September 27, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30
Denver Broncos won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Denver Broncos +1): Denver Broncos covered.
- Combined score 56 vs the closing total of 44: Over.
- Denver Broncos closed at -107 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Rams (1-1) visited the Broncos (1-1) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, September 27 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 3.
The Rams have the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 9th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the 24th-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When the Rams have the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (+0.013 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.066 allowed); when the Broncos have it, a 24th-ranked offense (−0.087) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.102 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Rams offense is at 49.1% (7th) and the Broncos offense at 43.1% (19th). Through the air, the Rams average +0.126 EPA per dropback (14th) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 12th; the Broncos average −0.097 (27th) against a Rams pass defense ranked 5th. The Rams score 17.5 points per game (22nd) and allow 16.5 (8th); the Broncos score 15.0 (26th) and allow 22.0 (13th).
Bo Nix has a 46.3% success rate (16th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Matthew Stafford's 44.8% (19th). Per dropback, Nix is at −0.097 EPA to Stafford's +0.116, with 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Stafford's 4 and 2.
The Rams are 1-1 and 1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 28-6 win over the Giants. The Broncos are 1-1 and 1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 20-13 win over the Jaguars.
The Rams closed as 1-point road favorites, with the Broncos getting the points at home. The spread opened at Rams -2.5. The total closed at 44, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rams -113, Broncos -107) prices the Rams at 51% and the Broncos at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Rams2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks57
- Success rate44.8%19th
- EPA per dropback+0.11615th
- Completion %67.3%15th
- CPOE+2.018th
- Yards per attempt8.86th
- TD–INT4–2
- Sack rate1.8%3rd
- Dropbacks64
- Success rate46.3%16th
- EPA per dropback−0.09727th
- Completion %66.1%19th
- CPOE+2.217th
- Yards per attempt7.118th
- TD–INT2–2
- Sack rate6.2%16th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Davante Adams leads the Rams wide receivers with 221 receiving yards (3rd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.1%. Kyren Williams has 126 rushing yards on 23 carries (17th of 45 qualified running backs). Jaylen Waddle leads the Broncos wide receivers with 140 receiving yards (18th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.2%. J.K. Dobbins has 72 rushing yards on 18 carries (32nd of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries23
- Rush yards12617th
- Yards per carry5.55th
- EPA per rush−0.12025th
- Rush success rate47.8%7th
- Targets / catches16 / 11
- Receiving yards2213rd
- Target share28.1%7th
- Yards per target13.85th
- EPA per target+0.62823rd
- Targets / catches10 / 6
- Receiving yards5422nd
- Target share17.5%13th
- Yards per target5.427th
- EPA per target−0.09926th
- Carries18
- Rush yards7232nd
- Yards per carry4.026th
- EPA per rush−0.24334th
- Rush success rate22.2%43rd
- Targets / catches13 / 9
- Receiving yards14018th
- Target share23.2%24th
- Yards per target10.821st
- EPA per target+0.34441st
- Targets / catches6 / 5
- Receiving yards6020th
- Target share10.7%24th
- Yards per target10.08th
- EPA per target+0.8447th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Rams | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRams offense vs Broncos defense | 51.1%4th | 39.3%8th |
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs Rams defense | 44.0%23rd | 45.6%13th |
| Early-down EPA per playRams offense vs Broncos defense | +0.07310th | −0.01913th |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Rams defense | +0.01616th | +0.1397th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRams offense vs Broncos defense | 41.2%14th | 50.0%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs Rams defense | 38.5%16th | 27.3%29th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRams offense vs Broncos defense | −0.06318th | +0.00816th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Rams defense | −0.4656th | −0.77529th |
| Red-zone TD rateRams offense vs Broncos defense | 66.7%13th | 57.1%13th |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs Rams defense | 40.0%8th | 50.0%21st |
| Red-zone success rateRams offense vs Broncos defense | 40.0%19th | 43.8%16th |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs Rams defense | 35.7%10th | 33.3%24th |
On early downs the Rams succeed on 51.1% of plays (4th) against a Broncos defense that allows 39.3% (8th); on 3rd down they convert 41.2% (14th) against a defense allowing 50.0% (26th). On early downs the Broncos succeed on 45.6% of plays (13th) against a Rams defense that allows 44.0% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 27.3% (29th) against a defense allowing 38.5% (16th). The Rams score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (13th). The Broncos score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (21st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Rams | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean McVay | Sean Payton |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathan Scheelhaase | Davis Webb |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris Shula | Vance Joseph |
| Offense tendencies | Rams | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | −5.7%23rd-highest | 0.1%12th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 54.5%27th-highest | 62.7%11th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 50.0%27th-highest | 55.7%15th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 46.4%27th-highest | 67.6%6th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 7.1%11th-highest | 7.8%10th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 33.812th-slowest | 32.323rd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 18.3%8th | 15.0%17th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 11.7%6th | 8.3%17th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 15.7%3rd | 13.5%5th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 1.6%3rd | 6.2%16th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 3.57%28th | 2.94%27th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 56.024th-most | 51.030th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 3 |
| Defense | Rams | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 2.9%29th | 6.2%19th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 10.3%6th | 15.0%14th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 2.9%4th | 8.3%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 8.2%10th | 10.9%22nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 1.68%17th | 1.68%17th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 14.3%20th | 18.8%8th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.4%15th | 15.6%13th |
The Rams run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−5.7% pass rate over expected, 23rd-highest), while the Broncos sit at 0.1% (12th-highest). In neutral situations the Rams take 33.8 seconds between snaps and the Broncos 32.3, so the Broncos play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Rams have gone for it 2 of 2 times and the Broncos 0 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Kamren Kinchens SDoubtfulHamstring
- Puka Nacua WRDoubtfulHip
- Colby Parkinson TEQuestionableKnee
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Rams have 6 days between games and the Broncos 7. The Rams travel about 837 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour ahead. The stadium sits about 5,280 feet above sea level.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
RamsBroncosLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Rams won 2 and the Broncos 0. In the most recent meeting (December 25, 2022), the Rams won 51-14; the Broncos averaged −0.277 EPA per play; the Rams averaged +0.285 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 2022 | Broncos 14, Rams 51 Rams won | Broncos -3 Rams covered | 36.5 over | Broncos −0.277 · Rams +0.285 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | Rams 23, Broncos 20 Rams won | Rams -7 Broncos covered | 50 under | Broncos −0.007 · Rams +0.177 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Rams -2.5 (-110)
Rams -1 (-106)
Broncos +115 45%
Broncos -107 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams team stats
- Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Oct 4)
- New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28 (Sep 21)
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 (Sep 14)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 27, 2026
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 (Sep 27)
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