Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Final — September 27, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
Minnesota Vikings won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5): Minnesota Vikings covered.
- Combined score 39 vs the closing total of 42.5: Under.
- Minnesota Vikings closed at -111 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Vikings (2-0) visited the Buccaneers (0-2) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, September 27 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 3.
The Vikings have the 21st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 7th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have the 28th-ranked offense and the 17th-ranked defense. When the Vikings have the ball, a 21st-ranked offense (−0.047 EPA per play) meets a 17th-ranked defense (+0.003 allowed); when the Buccaneers have it, a 28th-ranked offense (−0.164) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.150 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Vikings offense is at 34.5% (32nd) and the Buccaneers offense at 42.5% (20th). Through the air, the Vikings average +0.045 EPA per dropback (19th) against a Buccaneers pass defense ranked 19th; the Buccaneers average −0.262 (30th) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 13th. The Vikings score 24.0 points per game (13th) and allow 12.5 (4th); the Buccaneers score 23.0 (16th) and allow 28.0 (24th).
Baker Mayfield has a 42.9% success rate (24th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Carson Wentz's 40.0% (27th). Per dropback, Mayfield is at −0.262 EPA to Wentz's +0.076, with 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception to Wentz's 3 and 0.
The Vikings are 2-0 and 2-0 against the spread; their last game was a 9-3 win over the Bears. The Buccaneers are 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread; their last game was a 23-19 loss to the Browns.
The Vikings closed as 1.5-point road favorites, with the Buccaneers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Vikings -2.5. The total closed at 42.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Vikings -111, Buccaneers -106) prices the Vikings at 51% and the Buccaneers at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Vikings2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks47
- Success rate40.0%27th
- EPA per dropback+0.07618th
- Completion %59.0%28th
- CPOE−7.829th
- Yards per attempt7.119th
- TD–INT3–0
- Sack rate12.8%32nd
- Dropbacks76
- Success rate42.9%24th
- EPA per dropback−0.26230th
- Completion %71.0%7th
- CPOE+8.67th
- Yards per attempt6.426th
- TD–INT1–1
- Sack rate9.2%29th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings wide receivers with 147 receiving yards (15th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 35.7%. Aaron Jones has 145 rushing yards on 35 carries (10th of 45 qualified running backs). Emeka Egbuka leads the Buccaneers wide receivers with 79 receiving yards (44th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.3%. Bucky Irving has 134 rushing yards on 25 carries (13th of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries35
- Rush yards14510th
- Yards per carry4.123rd
- EPA per rush−0.09719th
- Rush success rate31.4%36th
- Targets / catches15 / 11
- Receiving yards14715th
- Target share35.7%3rd
- Yards per target9.828th
- EPA per target+0.86314th
- Targets / catches9 / 7
- Receiving yards6517th
- Target share21.4%7th
- Yards per target7.219th
- EPA per target+0.7169th
- Carries25
- Rush yards13413th
- Yards per carry5.46th
- EPA per rush+0.1377th
- Rush success rate44.0%13th
- Targets / catches11 / 8
- Receiving yards7944th
- Target share18.3%46th
- Yards per target7.251st
- EPA per target+0.27543rd
- Targets / catches11 / 8
- Receiving yards6418th
- Target share18.3%12th
- Yards per target5.826th
- EPA per target−0.14028th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Vikings | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Buccaneers defense | 27.2%32nd | 43.7%20th |
| Early-down success rateBuccaneers offense vs Vikings defense | 36.5%4th | 41.9%17th |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.16128th | +0.05422nd |
| Early-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Vikings defense | −0.03112th | −0.13527th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Buccaneers defense | 40.7%16th | 48.1%24th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuccaneers offense vs Vikings defense | 29.6%8th | 46.2%10th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Buccaneers defense | +0.1929th | −0.05115th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Vikings defense | −0.3899th | −0.18124th |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Buccaneers defense | 66.7%13th | 37.5%7th |
| Red-zone TD rateBuccaneers offense vs Vikings defense | 14.3%3rd | 37.5%27th |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Buccaneers defense | 42.9%17th | 42.9%13th |
| Red-zone success rateBuccaneers offense vs Vikings defense | 20.0%3rd | 45.5%16th |
On early downs the Vikings succeed on 27.2% of plays (32nd) against a Buccaneers defense that allows 43.7% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 40.7% (16th) against a defense allowing 48.1% (24th). On early downs the Buccaneers succeed on 41.9% of plays (17th) against a Vikings defense that allows 36.5% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 46.2% (10th) against a defense allowing 29.6% (8th). The Vikings score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (13th). The Buccaneers score touchdowns on 37.5% of red-zone trips (27th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Vikings | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kevin O'Connell | Todd Bowles |
| Offensive coordinator | Wes Phillips | Zac Robinson |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Flores | — |
| Offense tendencies | Vikings | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | −8.4%28th-highest | 0.2%11th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 50.0%31st-highest | 67.3%6th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 38.3%32nd-highest | 61.6%6th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 53.2%23rd-highest | 58.4%16th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 3.7%23rd-highest | 9.7%7th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 34.68th-slowest | 33.316th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 16.7%13th | 10.1%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 6.2%25th | 7.2%20th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 5.6%27th | 10.8%11th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 10.9%31st | 9.2%28th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 0.91%11th | 4.42%30th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 54.526th-most | 56.522nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Defense | Vikings | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 9.2%4th | 4.2%28th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 16.5%21st | 15.9%18th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.4%24th | 7.2%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 10.4%20th | 9.3%15th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 2.94%6th | 0.87%24th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 28.7%1st | 13.9%22nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.7%17th | 14.5%10th |
The Vikings run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−8.4% pass rate over expected, 28th-highest), while the Buccaneers sit at 0.2% (11th-highest). In neutral situations the Vikings take 34.6 seconds between snaps and the Buccaneers 33.3, so the Buccaneers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Vikings have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Buccaneers 0 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
- Josiah Trotter LBOutShoulder
- Rueben Bain Jr. LBOutGroin
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Vikings have 7 days between games and the Buccaneers 7. The Vikings travel about 1,315 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour ahead. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
VikingsBuccaneersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Vikings won 1 and the Buccaneers 2. In the most recent meeting (September 10, 2023), the Buccaneers won 20-17; the Vikings averaged −0.132 EPA per play; the Buccaneers averaged −0.104 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2023 | Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17 Buccaneers won | Vikings -4 Buccaneers covered | 45 under | Vikings −0.132 · Buccaneers −0.104 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Vikings 14, Buccaneers 26 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -7 Buccaneers covered | 52.5 under | Vikings +0.159 · Buccaneers +0.218 |
| Sep 24, 2017 | Buccaneers 17, Vikings 34 Vikings won | pick'em Vikings covered | 41 over | Vikings +0.269 · Buccaneers −0.049 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Vikings -2.5 (-105)
Vikings -1.5 (-104)
Buccaneers +110 46%
Buccaneers -106 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings team stats
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (Oct 4)
- Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 (Sep 20)
- Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 (Sep 13)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers team stats
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Oct 4)
- Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Sep 20)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 27, 2026
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 (Sep 27)
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
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