Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders Final — November 8, 2026
LARStarting quarterbacksexpected startersWSH
LAROffense2026 regular season to dateWSHLARDefenseWSHLARRecent formWSHLARHome and roadseason to dateWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
LARRest & travelWSHLARKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Rams (4-4) visited the Commanders (2-4-1) at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 9.
The Rams have the 10th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 3rd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Commanders have the 18th-ranked offense and the 20th-ranked defense. When the Rams have the ball, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.046 EPA per play) meets a 20th-ranked defense (+0.028 allowed); when the Commanders have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.009) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.103 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Rams offense is at 48.5% (5th) and the Commanders offense at 41.1% (24th). Through the air, the Rams average +0.069 EPA per dropback (17th) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 21st; the Commanders average +0.052 (19th) against a Rams pass defense ranked 4th. The Rams score 24.2 points per game (10th) and allow 21.0 (12th); the Commanders score 22.7 (17th) and allow 26.0 (26th).
Over the last five games, the Rams rank 10th on offense and 5th on defense by EPA per play; the Commanders rank 21st and 17th.
Matthew Stafford has a 50.0% success rate (9th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jayden Daniels' 44.4% (19th). Per dropback, Stafford is at +0.073 EPA to Daniels' +0.116, with 15 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions to Daniels' 6 and 0.
The Rams are 4-4 and 4-4 against the spread; their last game was a 24-9 win over the Chargers. The Commanders are 2-4-1 and 4-3 against the spread; their last game was a 27-10 win over the Eagles.
The Rams closed as 4.5-point road favorites, with the Commanders getting the points at home. The spread opened at Rams -5.5. The total closed at 48, down from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rams -225, Commanders +185) prices the Rams at 66% and the Commanders at 34%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13
Los Angeles Rams won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Commanders +4.5): Los Angeles Rams covered.
- Combined score 33 vs the closing total of 48: Under.
- Los Angeles Rams closed at -225 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Los Angeles Rams 66%, Washington Commanders 34%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 2:46 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 2nd & 19 at WAS 41(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to WAS 41 for no gain (45-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), touched at WAS 42, RECOVERED by WAS-25-N.Cross at WAS 45. 25-N.Cross to LA 40 for 15 yards (71-WWashington Commanders 52% → 67% (+15 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:20 — Washington Commanders ball, 1st & 20 at MID 50(Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 44 for -6 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), RECOVERED by LA-48-O.Speights at WAS 46. 48-O.Speights to WAS 45 for 1 yard (1-R.White).Los Angeles Rams 36% → 51% (+15 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:33 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 4th & 3 at WAS 38(No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to WAS 23 for 15 yards (39-J.Reaves; 23-T.Amos).Los Angeles Rams 46% → 55% (+9 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 6:03 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 3rd & 15 at LA 12(No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 25-N.Cross at LA 27. 25-N.Cross to LA 27 for no gain (12-P.Nacua).Washington Commanders 31% → 39% (+8 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:19 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 3rd & 11 at WAS 36(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to WAS 17 for 19 yards (20-Q.Martin).Los Angeles Rams 68% → 79% (+10 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Los Angeles Rams won after falling as low as 33% (Q2 2:34).
Game DNA
| Rams | Points added | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Passingdropbacks | -8.4 |
| -3.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.1 |
| +12.8 | Explosive plays8 plays · 7 plays | +8.7 |
| -6.9 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -5.8 |
| +2.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.5 |
| -1.7 | Penalties10 for 70 yds · 6 for 39 yds | +0.6 |
| +3.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 1 of 2 | +1.5 |
| +0.6 | All plays | -9.0 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 4.2 points to Los Angeles Rams. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Los Angeles Rams closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Rams -5.5 (-110)
Rams -4.5 (-102)
Commanders +185 34%
Commanders +185 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Puka Nacua has 565 receiving yards for the Rams (12th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 34.1%. Kyren Williams has 548 rushing yards on 112 carries (11th of 42 qualified running backs). Stefon Diggs has 252 receiving yards for the Commanders (56th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.0%.
- Carries112
- Rush yards54811th
- Yards per carry4.911th
- EPA per rush+0.00213th
- Rush success rate42.0%15th
- Targets / catches74 / 56
- Receiving yards56512th
- Target share34.1%2nd
- Yards per target7.645th
- EPA per target+0.19450th
- Targets / catches34 / 27
- Receiving yards27416th
- Target share12.8%27th
- Yards per target8.114th
- EPA per target+0.18123rd
- Carries47
- Rush yards200
- Yards per carry4.3
- EPA per rush−0.028
- Rush success rate42.6%
- Targets / catches44 / 27
- Receiving yards25256th
- Target share23.0%23rd
- Yards per target5.770th
- EPA per target+0.22944th
- Targets / catches24 / 17
- Receiving yards18230th
- Target share16.0%19th
- Yards per target7.617th
- EPA per target+0.05629th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Rams | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRams offense vs Commanders defense | 48.4%4th | 44.9%24th |
| Early-down success rateCommanders offense vs Rams defense | 41.9%8th | 42.7%17th |
| Early-down EPA per playRams offense vs Commanders defense | +0.0956th | −0.02811th |
| Early-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Rams defense | +0.01215th | +0.05312th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRams offense vs Commanders defense | 43.6%7th | 43.2%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCommanders offense vs Rams defense | 32.4%6th | 31.9%31st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRams offense vs Commanders defense | −0.11621st | +0.12027th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Rams defense | −0.4233rd | −0.22730th |
| Red-zone TD rateRams offense vs Commanders defense | 68.8%6th | 79.2%30th |
| Red-zone TD rateCommanders offense vs Rams defense | 44.4%6th | 55.0%20th |
| Red-zone success rateRams offense vs Commanders defense | 55.3%3rd | 52.2%31st |
| Red-zone success rateCommanders offense vs Rams defense | 31.7%6th | 39.0%22nd |
On early downs the Rams succeed on 48.4% of plays (4th) against a Commanders defense that allows 44.9% (24th); on 3rd down they convert 43.6% (7th) against a defense allowing 43.2% (25th). On early downs the Commanders succeed on 42.7% of plays (17th) against a Rams defense that allows 41.9% (8th); on 3rd down they convert 31.9% (31st) against a defense allowing 32.4% (6th). The Rams score touchdowns on 68.8% of red-zone trips (6th). The Commanders score touchdowns on 55.0% of red-zone trips (20th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Rams | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean McVay | Dan Quinn |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathan Scheelhaase | David Blough |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris Shula | Daronte Jones |
| Offense tendencies | Rams | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 0.2%8th-highest | −1.2%13th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.7%14th-highest | 62.8%11th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 58.3%10th-highest | 56.4%12th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 50.4%29th-highest | 72.7%3rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 9.4%5th-highest | 7.9%9th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.523rd-slowest | 32.424th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 14.3%20th | 14.9%19th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.5%24th | 9.4%12th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 10.0%13th | 6.2%30th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 3.7%6th | 5.9%16th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.30%24th | 0.69%1st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 65.06th-most | 61.712th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 6 of 11 | 7 of 13 |
| Defense | Rams | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 4.1%28th | 5.5%23rd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 13.9%10th | 15.0%14th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 7.3%9th | 8.8%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 7.5%5th | 4.5%2nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.63%21st | 2.25%10th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 11.2%29th | 14.5%20th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 14.4%12th | 17.7%27th |
The Rams pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (0.2% pass rate over expected, 8th-highest), while the Commanders sit at −1.2% (13th-highest). In neutral situations the Rams take 32.5 seconds between snaps and the Commanders 32.4, so the Commanders play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Rams have gone for it 6 of 11 times and the Commanders 7 of 13.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Rams won 2 and the Commanders 2. In the most recent meeting (December 17, 2023), the Rams won 28-20; the Rams averaged −0.018 EPA per play; the Commanders averaged −0.144 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2023 | Commanders 20, Rams 28 Rams won | Rams -6.5 Rams covered | 48.5 under | Rams −0.018 · Commanders −0.144 |
| Oct 11, 2020 | Rams 30, Commanders 10 Rams won | Rams -7 Rams covered | 45 under | Rams +0.105 · Commanders −0.440 |
| Sep 17, 2017 | Commanders 27, Rams 20 Commanders won | Rams -3 Commanders covered | 45.5 over | Rams −0.010 · Commanders +0.128 |
| Sep 20, 2015 | Rams 10, Commanders 24 Commanders won | Rams -3 Commanders covered | 41 under | Rams −0.279 · Commanders +0.047 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams team stats
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Nov 15)
- Los Angeles Chargers 9, Los Angeles Rams 24 (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
Washington Commanders
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
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