New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators Final — October 15, 2026
NYIStarting goaliesOTT
NYIOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)OTTNYIDefenseOTTNYITeamOTTNYI5-on-5OTTNYISpecial teamsOTTNYIRecent formOTTNYIHome and roadseason to dateOTTInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYIRest & travelOTTNYIKey injuriesOTTAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 15, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Islanders (3-3-0) visited the Senators (5-2-0) on Thursday, October 15 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Islanders scored 2.84 goals per game (24th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Islanders earned 55.5% of available standings points (19th) and the Senators 60.4% (9th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Islanders 47.9% (24th), Senators 54.8% (3rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Islanders 49.0% (18th), Senators 52.9% (5th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Islanders 45.5% (26th), Senators 56.0% (4th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Islanders +136, Senators -165) prices the Islanders at 40% and the Senators at 60%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Ottawa Senators won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Ottawa Senators -1.5): New York Islanders covered.
- Combined score 3 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Ottawa Senators closed at -165 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Ottawa Senators 2
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Islanders 41%, Ottawa Senators 59%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 15:43 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-1)Ottawa Senators 32% → 56% (+24 pts)
- OT 1:52 — Ottawa Senators faceoffOttawa Senators 52% → 76% (+24 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Ottawa Senators game-endOttawa Senators 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Ottawa Senators won after falling as low as 32% (2nd 15:43).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Ottawa Senators won 60% of G&W replays (New York Islanders 40%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Islanders | Goals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.1 |
| 0.1 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.1 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 1.7 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.2 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.6 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -1.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.9 |
| +1.9 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Semyon Varlamov 18/19 · Linus Ullmark 20/21 | +1.0 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Islanders +1.5 (-196)
Islanders +1.5 (-195)
Senators -162 59%
Senators -165 60%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Islanders won 14 and the Senators 7.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Senators 3, Islanders 0 Senators won | ||
| Mar 19, 2026 | Islanders 2, Senators 3 Senators won | Senators -125 favorite won | 6 under |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Islanders 5, Senators 4 Islanders won | Senators -142 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Senators 2, Islanders 0 Senators won | Islanders -120 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Islanders 4, Senators 2 Islanders won | Senators -140 underdog won | 6 push |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
New York Islanders
- New York Islanders team stats
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- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
Ottawa Senators
More NHL games on October 15, 2026
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Dig deeper
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