St Louis Blues vs Minnesota Wild Final — October 15, 2026
STLStarting goaliesMIN
STLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)MINSTLDefenseMINSTLTeamMINSTL5-on-5MINSTLSpecial teamsMINSTLRecent formMINSTLHome and roadseason to dateMINInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
STLRest & travelMINSTLKey injuriesMINAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 15, 9:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Blues (3-2-1) visited the Wild (4-2-1) on Thursday, October 15 at 8:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Blues scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Wild scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Blues earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Wild 63.4% (7th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Blues 49.5% (19th), Wild 50.9% (12th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Blues 48.2% (25th), Wild 48.2% (24th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Blues 45.4% (27th), Wild 53.5% (10th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Blues +120, Wild -142) prices the Blues at 44% and the Wild at 56%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
St Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 5
Minnesota Wild won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Wild -1.5): St Louis Blues covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Minnesota Wild closed at -142 on the moneyline (a 56% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Minnesota Wild 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward St Louis Blues.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (St Louis Blues 44%, Minnesota Wild 56%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 7:31 — Minnesota Wild goal (1-1)Minnesota Wild 40% → 62% (+21 pts)
- 2nd 4:57 — St Louis Blues goal (2-2)St Louis Blues 26% → 45% (+19 pts)
- 2nd 5:24 — Minnesota Wild goal (2-3)Minnesota Wild 55% → 74% (+19 pts)
Minnesota Wild won after falling as low as 40% (1st 1:45).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Minnesota Wild won 72% of G&W replays (St Louis Blues 28%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Minnesota Wild. Here is where that came from.
| Blues | Goals | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.3 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.7 |
| 0.3 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.3 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.0 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| +1.6 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +1.0 |
| -1.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Joel Hofer 33/38 · Jesper Wallstedt 21/25 | -1.6 |
How the margin was built, from Minnesota Wild's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Minnesota Wild closed as the market favourite at 56% and won.
The line moved toward St Louis Blues before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Blues +1.5 (-182)
Blues +1.5 (-218)
Wild -165 60%
Wild -142 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 33 times since 2018-19: the Blues won 20 and the Wild 13.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Wild 3, Blues 6 Blues won | Blues -183 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Blues 3, Wild 1 Blues won | Wild -235 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Wild 5, Blues 0 Wild won | Blues -125 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Blues 5, Wild 1 Blues won | 5.5 over | |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Blues 4, Wild 6 Wild won | Wild -130 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
St Louis Blues
- St Louis Blues team stats
- Montréal Canadiens 2, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 27)
- Carolina Hurricanes 4, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 24)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
Minnesota Wild
More NHL games on October 15, 2026
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Florida Panthers 3 (Oct 15)
- New York Rangers 1, New Jersey Devils 7 (Oct 15)
- New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 15)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Oct 15)
- Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (Oct 15)
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (Oct 15)
- Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 15)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 15)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 15)
- Calgary Flames 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 15)
Dig deeper
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