Philadelphia Flyers vs Detroit Red Wings Final — October 15, 2026
PHIStarting goaliesDET
PHIOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DETPHIDefenseDETPHITeamDETPHI5-on-5DETPHISpecial teamsDETPHIRecent formDETPHIHome and roadseason to dateDETInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
PHIRest & travelDETPHIKey injuriesDETAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 15, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Flyers (0-5-3) visited the Red Wings (1-3-2) on Thursday, October 15 at 7:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Red Wings scored 2.94 goals per game (22nd of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Flyers earned 59.8% of available standings points (10th) and the Red Wings 56.1% (15th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Flyers 51.0% (11th), Red Wings 48.6% (21st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Flyers 47.7% (26th), Red Wings 48.8% (21st). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Flyers 53.7% (9th), Red Wings 48.5% (19th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Flyers +121, Red Wings -143) prices the Flyers at 43% and the Red Wings at 57%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Detroit Red Wings won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Detroit Red Wings -1.5): Philadelphia Flyers covered.
- Combined score 3 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Detroit Red Wings closed at -143 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Detroit Red Wings 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Detroit Red Wings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Philadelphia Flyers 44%, Detroit Red Wings 56%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 17:32 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (1-0)Philadelphia Flyers 44% → 62% (+18 pts)
- 2nd 4:31 — Detroit Red Wings goal (1-1)Detroit Red Wings 34% → 55% (+21 pts)
- 3rd 15:22 — Detroit Red Wings goal (1-2)Detroit Red Wings 52% → 90% (+37 pts)
Detroit Red Wings won after falling as low as 33% (2nd 2:18).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Detroit Red Wings won 71% of G&W replays (Philadelphia Flyers 29%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Detroit Red Wings. Here is where that came from.
| Flyers | Goals | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.4 |
| 0.6 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.1 |
| 0.4 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 2.1 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.7 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| -1.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.7 |
| +1.7 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Joseph Woll 24/26 · Daniil Tarasov 17/18 | +1.1 |
How the margin was built, from Detroit Red Wings's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Detroit Red Wings closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Flyers +1.5 (-225)
Flyers +1.5 (-225)
Red Wings -140 56%
Red Wings -143 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 20 times since 2018-19: the Flyers won 12 and the Red Wings 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Flyers 3, Red Wings 6 Red Wings won | ||
| Apr 2, 2026 | Red Wings 4, Flyers 2 Red Wings won | ||
| Mar 28, 2026 | Flyers 5, Red Wings 3 Flyers won | Red Wings -132 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Red Wings 1, Flyers 2 OT Flyers won | Flyers -142 favorite won | 6 under |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Flyers 4, Red Wings 6 Red Wings won | Red Wings -115 favorite won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Philadelphia Flyers
- Philadelphia Flyers team stats
- Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals (Oct 28)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (Oct 27)
- Anaheim Ducks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (Oct 24)
- Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 21)
Detroit Red Wings
More NHL games on October 15, 2026
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Florida Panthers 3 (Oct 15)
- New York Rangers 1, New Jersey Devils 7 (Oct 15)
- New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 15)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Oct 15)
- Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (Oct 15)
- Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 15)
- St Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (Oct 15)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 15)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 15)
- Calgary Flames 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 15)
Dig deeper
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