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NHL · October 15, 2026

Vancouver Canucks vs Florida Panthers Final — October 15, 2026

Vancouver Canucks

2-6-0

Goalie Leevi Merilainen Confirmed

FINAL

Florida Panthers

3-2-2

Goalie Akira Schmid Confirmed

Thursday, October 15 · 7:10 PM ET

VANStarting goaliesFLA

This season

—

Starts

—

Sv%

.875

—

HDSv%

.833

—

GSAx

−1.9

Last season

—

Starts

—

Sv%

.893

—

HDSv%

.798

—

GSAx

−5.1

VANOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)FLA

30th2.63

GF/G

3.0618th

12th8.34

PP GF/60

7.1118th

VANDefenseFLA

32nd3.85

GA/G

3.3728th

31st10.38

PK GA/60

7.0710th

VANTeamFLA

32nd35.4%

Pts%

51.2%25th

31st44.1%

xGF%

50.2%16th

29th46.5%

CF%

51.7%9th

32nd41.8%

HDCF%

48.3%20th

VAN5-on-5FLA

29th2.27

xGF/60

2.5615th

32nd2.88

xGA/60

2.5417th

29th8.2%

Sh%

9.6%15th

30th89.2%

Sv%

89.3%28th

23rd114.1

CF/60 (both)

114.620th

30th−0.26

GAx/G

−0.2127th

30th−0.36

GSAx/G

−0.2628th

28th9.5%

Sh%

10.2%19th

32nd88.0%

Sv%

88.5%27th

29th42.4%

xGF% (L20)

46.3%27th

VANSpecial teamsFLA

10th8.12

PP xG/60

8.228th

11th81.0

PP FF/60

83.75th

24th4.5

PP min/G

5.33rd

25th8.17

PK xGA/60

6.545th

7th4.3

PK min/G

5.431st

VANRecent formFLA

Lvs VGK 2-3L@ CAR 2-7L@ NJD 1-4L@ NYR 2-6L@ NYI 2-3

Resultsoldest to newest

OTL@ ANA 2-3W@ LAK 2-1Lvs MIN 1-4L@ BUF 3-5W@ CBJ 7-3

Game by game

2-6-0

Record

3-2-2

0-5-0

Last 5

2-2-1

4-4

Over–under

3-4

VANHome and roadseason to dateFLA

1-2-0

Home record

0-1-0

1-4-0

Road record

3-1-2

1-2

Home O/U

0-1

3-2

Road O/U

3-3

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

VANRest & travelFLA

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

1,074 mi1,729 km

Travel to the game

Home

VANKey injuriesFLA

None listed

Players out or limited

Jacob Markstrom GOutAleksander Barkov CIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 15, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Canucks (2-6-0) visited the Panthers (3-2-2) on Thursday, October 15 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Canucks scored 2.63 goals per game (30th of 32) and allowed 3.85 (32nd). The Panthers scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.37 (28th). The Canucks earned 35.4% of available standings points (32nd) and the Panthers 51.2% (25th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Canucks 44.1% (31st), Panthers 50.2% (16th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Canucks 46.5% (29th), Panthers 51.7% (9th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Canucks 41.8% (32nd), Panthers 48.3% (20th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Canucks +240, Panthers -300) prices the Canucks at 28% and the Panthers at 72%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Vancouver Canucks 2, Florida Panthers 3

Florida Panthers won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Florida Panthers -1.5): Vancouver Canucks covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Florida Panthers closed at -300 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Vancouver Canucks 2
Florida Panthers 3

Decided

In overtime

Florida Panthers won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

28%Market at the close72%

Vancouver CanucksFlorida Panthers

29%Market at the open71%

The market barely moved from open to close.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Vancouver Canucks 28%, Florida Panthers 72%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 17:06 — Vancouver Canucks goal (2-0)Vancouver Canucks 48% → 66% (+18 pts)
3rd 19:47 — Florida Panthers goal (2-2)Florida Panthers 2% → 58% (+56 pts)
OT 2:23 — Florida Panthers goal (2-3)Florida Panthers 55% → 100% (+45 pts)

Florida Panthers won after falling as low as 2% (3rd 19:47).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

40%VAN

Share of G&W replays won

60%FLA

2.9

Expected goals

3.6

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Florida Panthers won 60% of G&W replays (Vancouver Canucks 40%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Canucks	Goals	Panthers
1.6	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.9
1.0	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.6
0.3	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
2.9	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.6
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.7
1.0	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.8
-0.9	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-1.4
+1.4	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Leevi Meriläinen 36/39 · Akira Schmid 15/17	+0.9

Bar left: Canucks gainedBar right: Panthers gained

How the margin was built, from Florida Panthers's side:

Chances +1.5Finishing & goaltending -0.5Florida Panthers by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 6.5 -1171.50uWIN +1.50u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Florida Panthers closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenPanthers -1.5 (-119)
Canucks +1.5 (-101)

ClosePanthers -1.5 (-115)
Canucks +1.5 (-105)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +106 / u -128)

Close6.5 (o +108 / u -130)

Moneyline

OpenCanucks +235 29%
Panthers -295 71%

CloseCanucks +240 28%
Panthers -300 72%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Canucks won 8 and the Panthers 6.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Mar 17, 2026	Panthers 2, Canucks 5 Canucks won	Panthers -156 underdog won	6 over
Nov 17, 2025	Canucks 5, Panthers 8 Panthers won	Panthers -275 favorite won	6 over
Dec 12, 2024	Panthers 0, Canucks 4 Canucks won	Panthers -180 underdog won	5.5 under
Oct 17, 2024	Canucks 3, Panthers 2 OT Canucks won	Canucks -115 favorite won	5.5 under
Dec 14, 2023	Panthers 0, Canucks 4 Canucks won	Panthers -123 underdog won	6.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams