Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights Final — October 15, 2026
CGYStarting goaliesVGK
CGYOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)VGKCGYDefenseVGKCGYTeamVGKCGY5-on-5VGKCGYSpecial teamsVGKCGYRecent formVGKCGYHome and roadseason to dateVGKInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CGYRest & travelVGKCGYKey injuriesVGKAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 15, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Flames (1-5-0) visited the Golden Knights (6-2-0) on Thursday, October 15 at 10:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Flames scored 2.59 goals per game (32nd of 32) and allowed 3.16 (21st). The Golden Knights scored 3.23 goals per game (14th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Flames earned 47.0% of available standings points (29th) and the Golden Knights 57.9% (12th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Flames 47.2% (27th), Golden Knights 54.5% (4th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Flames 49.2% (17th), Golden Knights 52.3% (7th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Flames 46.9% (23rd), Golden Knights 59.9% (1st). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Flames +230, Golden Knights -290) prices the Flames at 29% and the Golden Knights at 71%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Calgary Flames 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Vegas Golden Knights won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Vegas Golden Knights -1.5): Vegas Golden Knights covered.
- Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Vegas Golden Knights closed at -290 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Vegas Golden Knights 6
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Calgary Flames 29%, Vegas Golden Knights 71%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 0:25 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (0-1)Vegas Golden Knights 71% → 83% (+12 pts)
- 2nd 10:15 — Calgary Flames goal (1-2)Calgary Flames 6% → 16% (+10 pts)
- 2nd 11:03 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (1-3)Vegas Golden Knights 83% → 94% (+11 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Vegas Golden Knights won 58% of G&W replays (Calgary Flames 42%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Flames | Goals | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.7 |
| 0.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 2.0 |
| 0.4 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 3.3 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.9 |
| 1.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.6 |
| -1.3 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +2.1 |
| -2.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Dustin Wolf 27/33 · Carter Hart 28/30 | +1.3 |
How the margin was built, from Vegas Golden Knights's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Vegas Golden Knights closed as the market favourite at 71% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Flames +1.5 (-100)
Flames +1.5 (-109)
Golden Knights -285 71%
Golden Knights -290 71%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Flames won 10 and the Golden Knights 16.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Flames 3, Golden Knights 6 Golden Knights won | ||
| Dec 20, 2025 | Golden Knights 3, Flames 6 Flames won | Golden Knights -130 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Flames 1, Golden Knights 6 Golden Knights won | Golden Knights -250 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Golden Knights 4, Flames 2 Golden Knights won | Golden Knights -180 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Golden Knights 4, Flames 5 SO Flames won | Flames -118 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames team stats
- Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers (Oct 28)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5 (Oct 26)
- Detroit Red Wings 1, Calgary Flames 4 (Oct 24)
- Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 22)
Vegas Golden Knights
- Vegas Golden Knights team stats
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
- Vegas Golden Knights 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (Oct 24)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 15, 2026
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Florida Panthers 3 (Oct 15)
- New York Rangers 1, New Jersey Devils 7 (Oct 15)
- New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 15)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Oct 15)
- Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (Oct 15)
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (Oct 15)
- Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 15)
- St Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (Oct 15)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 15)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 15)
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