Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs Final — October 15, 2026
BUFStarting goaliesTOR
BUFOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TORBUFDefenseTORBUFTeamTORBUF5-on-5TORBUFSpecial teamsTORBUFRecent formTORBUFHome and roadseason to dateTORInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BUFRest & travelTORBUFKey injuriesTORAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 15, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sabres (3-3-1) visited the Maple Leafs (3-3-1) on Thursday, October 15 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Sabres earned 66.5% of available standings points (4th) and the Maple Leafs 47.6% (28th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sabres 50.5% (14th), Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sabres 49.3% (16th), Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sabres 51.7% (13th), Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sabres -105, Maple Leafs -115) prices the Sabres at 49% and the Maple Leafs at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Buffalo Sabres won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5): Buffalo Sabres covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Buffalo Sabres closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Sabres 49%, Toronto Maple Leafs 51%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 11:13 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (2-3)Toronto Maple Leafs 51% → 72% (+21 pts)
- 3rd 12:16 — Buffalo Sabres goal (4-4)Buffalo Sabres 15% → 50% (+35 pts)
- OT 3:14 — Buffalo Sabres goal (5-4)Buffalo Sabres 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Buffalo Sabres won after falling as low as 4% (3rd 10:05).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Toronto Maple Leafs won 55% of G&W replays (Buffalo Sabres 45%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Sabres | Goals | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.2 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.4 |
| 2.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.9 |
| 0.4 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.1 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.3 |
| +2.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +1.0 |
| -1.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 26/30 · Sergei Bobrovsky 29/34 | -2.0 |
How the margin was built, from Buffalo Sabres's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Toronto Maple Leafs closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sabres +1.5 (-250)
Sabres +1.5 (-255)
Maple Leafs -115 51%
Maple Leafs -115 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Sabres won 11 and the Maple Leafs 15.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Maple Leafs 2, Sabres 3 SO Sabres won | Sabres -235 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Sabres 7, Maple Leafs 4 Sabres won | Maple Leafs -118 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Sabres 3, Maple Leafs 4 OT Maple Leafs won | Maple Leafs -145 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Maple Leafs 3, Sabres 5 Sabres won | Maple Leafs -125 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Sabres 0 Maple Leafs won | Maple Leafs -145 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 24)
- Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 21)
Toronto Maple Leafs
More NHL games on October 15, 2026
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Florida Panthers 3 (Oct 15)
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- New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 15)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Oct 15)
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (Oct 15)
- Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 15)
- St Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (Oct 15)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 15)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 15)
- Calgary Flames 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 15)
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