Seattle Kraken vs Tampa Bay Lightning Final — October 15, 2026
SEAStarting goaliesTB
SEAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TBSEADefenseTBSEATeamTBSEA5-on-5TBSEASpecial teamsTBSEARecent formTBSEAHome and roadseason to dateTBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SEARest & travelTBSEAKey injuriesTBAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Injury report as of October 15, 6:40 p.m. ET: no key players listed for either team.
The pre-game matchup
The Kraken (5-2-0) visited the Lightning (4-2-0) on Thursday, October 15 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Kraken scored 2.76 goals per game (28th of 32) and allowed 3.21 (23rd). The Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Kraken earned 48.2% of available standings points (27th) and the Lightning 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Kraken 45.4% (30th), Lightning 54.2% (5th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Kraken 45.4% (31st), Lightning 53.3% (3rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Kraken 46.1% (25th), Lightning 57.9% (2nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kraken +225, Lightning -276) prices the Kraken at 30% and the Lightning at 70%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Seattle Kraken 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Tampa Bay Lightning won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5): Seattle Kraken covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -276 on the moneyline (a 70% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Tampa Bay Lightning.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Seattle Kraken 30%, Tampa Bay Lightning 70%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 9:58 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (2-3)Tampa Bay Lightning 60% → 88% (+28 pts)
- 3rd 15:41 — Seattle Kraken goal (3-3)Seattle Kraken 7% → 42% (+34 pts)
- OT 2:07 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (3-4)Tampa Bay Lightning 55% → 100% (+45 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 61% of G&W replays (Seattle Kraken 39%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is where that came from.
| Kraken | Goals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 2.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.3 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.1 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.6 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.4 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.5 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| +0.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.1 |
| -0.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Philipp Grubauer 31/35 · Andrei Vasilevskiy 24/27 | -0.4 |
How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 70% and won.
The line moved toward Tampa Bay Lightning before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kraken +1.5 (-120)
Kraken +1.5 (-110)
Lightning -235 67%
Lightning -276 70%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 10 times since 2018-19: the Kraken won 2 and the Lightning 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Kraken 4, Lightning 3 OT Kraken won | ||
| Mar 17, 2026 | Lightning 6, Kraken 2 Lightning won | Lightning -195 favorite won | 6 over |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Kraken 1, Lightning 4 Lightning won | Lightning -285 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Lightning 5, Kraken 1 Lightning won | Lightning -130 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Lightning 4, Kraken 3 OT Lightning won | Lightning -115 favorite won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Seattle Kraken
- Seattle Kraken team stats
- Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken (Oct 28)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
- Detroit Red Wings 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (Oct 20)
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning team stats
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 24)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 23)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 20)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 15, 2026
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Florida Panthers 3 (Oct 15)
- New York Rangers 1, New Jersey Devils 7 (Oct 15)
- New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 15)
- Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (Oct 15)
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (Oct 15)
- Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 15)
- St Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (Oct 15)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 15)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 15)
- Calgary Flames 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 15)
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