Minnesota Wild vs Edmonton Oilers Final — October 20, 2026
MINStarting goaliesEDM
MINOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)EDMMINDefenseEDMMINTeamEDMMIN5-on-5EDMMINSpecial teamsEDMMINRecent formEDMMINHome and roadseason to dateEDMInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelEDMMINKey injuriesEDMAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 20, 8:10 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Wild (6-2-1) visited the Oilers (6-1-1) on Tuesday, October 20 at 9:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Wild scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Oilers scored 3.44 goals per game (7th of 32) and allowed 3.28 (25th). The Wild earned 63.4% of available standings points (7th) and the Oilers 56.7% (14th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Wild 50.9% (12th), Oilers 51.7% (9th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Wild 48.2% (24th), Oilers 50.3% (12th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Wild 53.5% (10th), Oilers 51.0% (14th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wild +105, Oilers -125) prices the Wild at 47% and the Oilers at 53%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Wild 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Edmonton Oilers won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Edmonton Oilers -1.5): Minnesota Wild covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Edmonton Oilers closed at -125 on the moneyline (a 53% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Edmonton Oilers 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Minnesota Wild.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Wild 47%, Edmonton Oilers 53%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 13:07 — Minnesota Wild goal (3-3)Minnesota Wild 13% → 49% (+35 pts)
- OT 1:59 — Minnesota Wild faceoffEdmonton Oilers 51% → 74% (+24 pts)
- OT 3:32 — Edmonton Oilers goal (3-4)Edmonton Oilers 65% → 100% (+35 pts)
Edmonton Oilers won after falling as low as 35% (1st 18:37).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Minnesota Wild won 61% of G&W replays (Edmonton Oilers 39%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Minnesota Wild. Here is where that came from.
| Wild | Goals | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.5 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.1 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 4.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.6 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.6 |
| 1.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.8 |
| -1.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.2 |
| +0.2 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jesper Wallstedt 28/32 · Devon Levi 27/30 | +1.4 |
How the margin was built, from Edmonton Oilers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Edmonton Oilers closed as the market favourite at 53% and won.
The line moved toward Minnesota Wild before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wild +1.5 (-235)
Wild +1.5 (-237)
Oilers -130 54%
Oilers -125 53%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Wild won 15 and the Oilers 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Wild 7, Oilers 3 Wild won | Oilers -130 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Oilers 2, Wild 5 Wild won | Wild -134 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Wild 1, Oilers 0 Wild won | Oilers -148 underdog won | 6 under |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Oilers 5, Wild 3 Oilers won | Oilers -225 favorite won | 6 over |
| Dec 12, 2024 | Oilers 7, Wild 1 Oilers won | Oilers -140 favorite won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Minnesota Wild
- Minnesota Wild team stats
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
Edmonton Oilers
- Edmonton Oilers team stats
- Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers (Oct 28)
- Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 26)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 20, 2026
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (Oct 20)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (Oct 20)
- Colorado Avalanche 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 20)
- Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 20)
- Los Angeles Kings 5, Washington Capitals 2 (Oct 20)
- Boston Bruins 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 20)
- Winnipeg Jets 1, St Louis Blues 2 (Oct 20)
- Detroit Red Wings 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (Oct 20)
- Carolina Hurricanes 6, Vancouver Canucks 3 (Oct 20)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 20)
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