Home › Game previews › NCAAF › October 2026 › Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns

NCAAF · October 31, 2026

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns Preview & Odds — October 31, 2026

Mississippi State Bulldogs

4-3

Quarterback Kamario Taylor

Texas Longhorns

5-2

Quarterback Arch Manning

Saturday, October 31 · 7:30 PM ET

MSSTOffense2026 regular season to dateTEX

50th+0.111

EPA/play

−0.024104th

54th48.3%

Success %

46.0%78th

44th30.0

PPG

30.741st

MSSTDefenseTEX

99th+0.144

EPA/play allowed

−0.08217th

55th46.0%

Success % allowed

40.8%9th

83rd27.7

Opp PPG

19.126th

MSSTRecent formTEX

W@ South Carolina 41-34Wvs Missouri 31-24Lvs Alabama 23-56L@ LSU 0-31Lvs Oklahoma 15-23

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs UTSA 30-6W@ Tennessee 20-17L@ Oklahoma 24-27Lvs Florida 24-27Wvs Ole Miss 34-27

4-3

Record

5-2

4-3

ATS

2-5

3-4

Over–under

3-4

MSSTHome and roadseason to dateTEX

2-2

Home record

4-1

2-1

Road record

1-1

2-2

Home ATS

2-3

2-1

Road ATS

0-2

2-2

Home O/U

2-3

1-2

Road O/U

1-1

MSSTLast 10 gamesTEX

Game by game

4-3

Last 7

5-2

+16

Net points

+81

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

MSSTRest & travelTEX

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

568 mi914 km

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Matchup preview

Mississippi State (4-3) visits Texas (5-2) on Saturday, October 31 at 7:30 PM ET.

Mississippi State has the 50th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 99th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas has the 104th-ranked offense and the 17th-ranked defense. When Mississippi State has the ball, a 50th-ranked offense (+0.111 EPA per play) meets a 17th-ranked defense (−0.082 allowed); when Texas has it, a 104th-ranked offense (−0.024) meets a 99th-ranked defense (+0.144 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Mississippi State offense is at 48.3% (54th) and the Texas offense at 46.0% (78th). Mississippi State scores 30.0 points per game (44th) and allows 27.7 (83rd); Texas scores 30.7 (41st) and allows 19.1 (26th).

Mississippi State is 4-3 and 4-3 against the spread; its last game was a 23-15 loss to Oklahoma. Texas is 5-2 and 2-5 against the spread; its last game was a 34-27 win over Ole Miss.

Texas is a 20.5-point favorite at home against Mississippi State. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Mississippi State +850, Texas -1450) prices Mississippi State at 10% and Texas at 90%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadno move

OpenTexas -20.5 (-110)
Mississippi State +20.5 (-110)

NowTexas -20.5 (-110)
Mississippi State +20.5 (-110)

Totaldown 1

Open51.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now50.5 (o -112 / u -105)

Moneyline

OpenMississippi State +805 11%
Texas -1398 89%

NowMississippi State +850 10%
Texas -1450 90%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Oct 28

Mississippi State +20.5-102Novig
Texas -20.5-102Novig
Over 50.5-104Kalshi
Under 50.5+106ProphetX
Mississippi State+953Novig
Texas-1011Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Players to watch

Mississippi State

QB · Kamario Taylor

Attempts159
Completion %65.4%71st
Passing yards1,460113th
Yards per attempt9.223rd
TD–INT17–4

Leading rusher (RB) · Fluff Bothwell

Rushing yards51457th
Season line91 carries, 514 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Anthony Evans III

Receiving yards64719th
Season line53 catches, 647 yds, 5 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Tyler Lockhart

Tackles48158th

Texas

QB · Arch Manning

Attempts197
Completion %63.5%93rd
Passing yards1,510100th
Yards per attempt7.791st
TD–INT12–7

Leading rusher (RB) · Raleek Brown

Rushing yards42295th
Season line84 carries, 422 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Ryan Wingo

Receiving yards45674th
Season line33 catches, 456 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (DB) · Jelani McDonald

Tackles5485th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 28, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Mississippi State	Texas
Early-down success rateMississippi State offense vs Texas defense	45.2%40th	35.1%3rd
Early-down success rateTexas offense vs Mississippi State defense	41.1%37th	43.0%73rd
3rd-down conversion rateMississippi State offense vs Texas defense	44.6%37th	32.3%12th
3rd-down conversion rateTexas offense vs Mississippi State defense	44.3%101st	37.1%97th
Explosive play rateMississippi State offense vs Texas defense	8.0%30th	3.7%4th
Explosive play rateTexas offense vs Mississippi State defense	6.7%70th	5.8%103rd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	53.0%44th-highest	48.6%88th-highest

On 3rd down Mississippi State converts 44.6% (37th) against a Texas defense allowing 32.3% (12th).

On 3rd down Texas converts 37.1% (97th) against a Mississippi State defense allowing 44.3% (101st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Mississippi State	Texas
Head coach	Jeff Lebby	Steve Sarkisian
Tenureat this school	3rd season	6th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	11–21	51–22
Career recordas an FBS head coach	11–21	97–57
Offensive coordinator	Jeff Lebby	Kyle Flood
Defensive coordinator	Zach Arnett / Matt Brock	Will Muschamp / Johnny Nansen

Staff list as of October 27, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Mississippi State won 0 and Texas 2.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 25, 2025	Texas 45, Mississippi State 38 Texas won
Sep 28, 2024	Mississippi State 13, Texas 35 Texas won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams