Ole Miss Rebels vs Texas Longhorns Final — October 24, 2026
MISSOffense2026 regular season to dateTEX
MISSDefenseTEXMISSRecent formTEXMISSHome and roadseason to dateTEXMISSLast 10 gamesTEXRest & travelrest and travel
MISSRest & travelTEXAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Ole Miss (5-1) visited Texas (4-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:30 PM ET.
Ole Miss has the 8th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 81st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas has the 98th-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense. When Ole Miss has the ball, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.282 EPA per play) meets a 27th-ranked defense (−0.057 allowed); when Texas has it, a 98th-ranked offense (−0.016) meets a 81st-ranked defense (+0.098 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ole Miss offense is at 55.2% (3rd) and the Texas offense at 46.6% (74th). Ole Miss scores 37.5 points per game (9th) and allows 23.8 (50th); Texas scores 30.2 (41st) and allows 17.8 (22nd).
Ole Miss is 5-1; its last game was a 31-3 win over Missouri. Texas is 4-2 and 1-5 against the spread; its last game was a 27-24 loss to Florida.
Texas closed as a 3-point favorite at home against Ole Miss. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 54.5, up from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ole Miss +130, Texas -155) prices Ole Miss at 42% and Texas at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ole Miss Rebels 27, Texas Longhorns 34
Texas Longhorns won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Texas Longhorns -3): Texas Longhorns covered.
- Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 54.5: Over.
- Texas Longhorns closed at -155 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ole Miss Rebels 42%, Texas Longhorns 58%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 4:34 — Ole Miss Rebels ball, 1st & 10 at TEX 32Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass intercepted by #28 J.Cryer at TEXAS26 #28 J.Cryer return 15 yards to the TEXAS41 (#11 H.Fields)Texas Longhorns 51% → 65% (+15 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 14:58 — Texas Longhorns ball, 1st & 10 at TEX 12No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete deep right to #8 C.Coleman thrown to TEXAS42Ole Miss Rebels 3% → 20% (+16 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 14:47 — Texas Longhorns ball, 2nd & 10 at TEX 12No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #1 R.Wingo caught at TEXAS09, for 4 yards to the TEXAS16 (#8 A.Kite), out of boundsTexas Longhorns 77% → 96% (+19 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:24 — Texas Longhorns ball, 1st & 10 at TEX 43No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass intercepted by #0 J.Crawford at MISS20 QB hurried by #96 J.Brown #0 J.Crawford return 0 yards to the MISS20 (#85 E.Winston)Ole Miss Rebels 35% → 47% (+12 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:36 — Texas Longhorns ball, 2nd & 9 at TEX 21No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Brown rush middle for 47 yards gain to the MISS32 (#7 S.Denson), 1ST DOWNTexas Longhorns 57% → 72% (+16 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Ole Miss | Points added | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| -7.7 | Passingdropbacks | -9.9 |
| -8.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.7 |
| +9.4 | Explosive plays4 plays · 5 plays | +15.1 |
| -6.5 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -6.8 |
| -3.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.1 |
| +5.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.6 |
| -0.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 3 of 5 | +1.7 |
| -11.5 | All plays | -7.1 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 7.7 points to Ole Miss Rebels. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Texas Longhorns closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ole Miss +3 (-115)
Ole Miss +3 (-105)
Texas -153 58%
Texas -155 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts210
- Completion %67.6%38th
- Passing yards1,67648th
- Yards per attempt8.081st
- TD–INT14–4
- Rushing yards352116th
- Season line62 carries, 352 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards52326th
- Season line35 catches, 523 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles39208th
- Attempts167
- Completion %64.1%88th
- Passing yards1,298113th
- Yards per attempt7.893rd
- TD–INT11–5
- Rushing yards289177th
- Season line65 carries, 289 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards345114th
- Season line26 catches, 345 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4894th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Ole Miss | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOle Miss offense vs Texas defense | 50.7%2nd | 36.0%6th |
| Early-down success rateTexas offense vs Ole Miss defense | 42.4%55th | 43.2%67th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOle Miss offense vs Texas defense | 50.8%15th | 32.1%12th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas offense vs Ole Miss defense | 45.2%108th | 39.5%78th |
| Explosive play rateOle Miss offense vs Texas defense | 6.6%74th | 3.4%2nd |
| Explosive play rateTexas offense vs Ole Miss defense | 8.3%112th | 5.3%114th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 57.8%15th-highest | 49.6%83rd-highest |
On 3rd down Ole Miss converts 50.8% (15th) against a Texas defense allowing 32.1% (12th).
On 3rd down Texas converts 39.5% (78th) against a Ole Miss defense allowing 45.2% (108th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Ole Miss | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Pete Golding | Steve Sarkisian |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–2 | 50–22 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 7–2 | 96–57 |
| Offensive coordinator | John David Baker | Kyle Flood |
| Defensive coordinator | Bryan Brown | Will Muschamp / Johnny Nansen |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Ole Miss Rebels
- Ole Miss Rebels team stats
- Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (Oct 31)
- Missouri Tigers 3, Ole Miss Rebels 31 (Oct 17)
- Ole Miss Rebels 52, Vanderbilt Commodores 17 (Oct 10)
- Ole Miss Rebels 28, Florida Gators 52 (Sep 26)
Texas Longhorns
- Texas Longhorns team stats
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns (Oct 31)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Texas Longhorns 24, Oklahoma Sooners 27 (Oct 10)
- UTSA Roadrunners 6, Texas Longhorns 30 (Sep 19)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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