Oklahoma Sooners vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Final — October 24, 2026
OUOffense2026 regular season to dateMSST
OUDefenseMSSTOURecent formMSSTOUHome and roadseason to dateMSSTOULast 10 gamesMSSTRest & travelrest and travel
OURest & travelMSSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Oklahoma (3-3) visited Mississippi State (4-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET.
Oklahoma has the 135th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 6th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Mississippi State has the 35th-ranked offense and the 95th-ranked defense. When Oklahoma has the ball, a 135th-ranked offense (−0.203 EPA per play) meets a 95th-ranked defense (+0.144 allowed); when Mississippi State has it, a 35th-ranked offense (+0.171) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.143 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Oklahoma offense is at 39.6% (134th) and the Mississippi State offense at 48.4% (54th). Oklahoma scores 21.3 points per game (97th) and allows 18.2 (24th); Mississippi State scores 32.5 (32nd) and allows 28.5 (87th).
Oklahoma is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 21-13 loss to Kentucky. Mississippi State is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 31-0 loss to LSU.
Oklahoma closed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with Mississippi State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Oklahoma -2.5. The total closed at 49.5, up from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Oklahoma -121, Mississippi State +101) prices Oklahoma at 52% and Mississippi State at 48%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Oklahoma Sooners 23, Mississippi State Bulldogs 15
Oklahoma Sooners won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Mississippi State Bulldogs +1.5): Oklahoma Sooners covered.
- Combined score 38 vs the closing total of 49.5: Under.
- Oklahoma Sooners closed at -121 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Oklahoma Sooners 52%, Mississippi State Bulldogs 48%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 4:41 — Mississippi State Bulldogs ball, 4th & 5 at OU 41No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 2 yards to the OU43 (#38 O.Heinecke), TURNOVER ON DOWNSOklahoma Sooners 61% → 68% (+8 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:16 — Mississippi State Bulldogs ball, 3rd & 15 at MSST 45No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett pass complete short left to #3 A.Evans III caught at OU50, for 17 yards to the OU38 (#25 M.Boganowski), 1ST DOWN. The previous pl…Mississippi State Bulldogs 36% → 45% (+9 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:34 — Mississippi State Bulldogs ball, 1st & 6 at OU 6No Huddle-Shotgun #15 P.Puckett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU04 fumbled by #15 P.Puckett at OU04 forced by #38 O.Heinecke recovered by OU #44 T.Wein at…Oklahoma Sooners 47% → 64% (+16 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:39 — Oklahoma Sooners ball, 1st & 10 at MSST 36Isaiah Sategna III 36 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)Oklahoma Sooners 73% → 83% (+10 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:33 — Oklahoma Sooners ball, 3rd & 6 at OU 29Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep right to #1 I.Sategna III caught at State22, for 54 yards to the State17 (#28 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNOklahoma Sooners 85% → 92% (+7 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Oklahoma | Points added | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| -5.3 | Passingdropbacks | -15.5 |
| -1.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | +1.5 |
| +23.6 | Explosive plays5 plays · 2 plays | +9.3 |
| -3.5 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -8.9 |
| -11.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.8 |
| -0.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.2 |
| -4.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 4 · 1 of 2 | +1.5 |
| -2.8 | All plays | -17.1 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 14.3 points to Oklahoma Sooners. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Oklahoma Sooners closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
The line moved toward Mississippi State Bulldogs before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Oklahoma -2.5 (-116)
Oklahoma -1.5 (-110)
Mississippi State +119 44%
Mississippi State +101 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts175
- Completion %65.1%76th
- Passing yards1,308110th
- Yards per attempt7.5115th
- TD–INT9–7
- Rushing yards267193rd
- Season line60 carries, 267 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards41472nd
- Season line33 catches, 414 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles44130th
- Attempts154
- Completion %66.2%63rd
- Passing yards1,45085th
- Yards per attempt9.416th
- TD–INT17–4
- Rushing yards40385th
- Season line74 carries, 403 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards61413th
- Season line47 catches, 614 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles38224th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Oklahoma | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOklahoma offense vs Mississippi State defense | 35.1%135th | 42.4%56th |
| Early-down success rateMississippi State offense vs Oklahoma defense | 39.3%20th | 44.4%54th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOklahoma offense vs Mississippi State defense | 40.6%67th | 44.4%104th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMississippi State offense vs Oklahoma defense | 28.4%3rd | 50.8%16th |
| Explosive play rateOklahoma offense vs Mississippi State defense | 7.8%38th | 6.6%63rd |
| Explosive play rateMississippi State offense vs Oklahoma defense | 5.0%18th | 8.5%22nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 54.8%28th-highest | 52.6%50th-highest |
On 3rd down Oklahoma converts 40.6% (67th) against a Mississippi State defense allowing 44.4% (104th).
On 3rd down Mississippi State converts 50.8% (16th) against a Oklahoma defense allowing 28.4% (3rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Oklahoma | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brent Venables | Jeff Lebby |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 35–23 | 11–20 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 35–23 | 11–20 |
| Offensive coordinator | Ben Arbuckle | Jeff Lebby |
| Defensive coordinator | Todd Bates | Zach Arnett / Matt Brock |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Oklahoma Sooners
- Oklahoma Sooners team stats
- South Carolina Gamecocks at Oklahoma Sooners (Oct 31)
- Kentucky Wildcats 21, Oklahoma Sooners 13 (Oct 17)
- Texas Longhorns 24, Oklahoma Sooners 27 (Oct 10)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Mississippi State Bulldogs team stats
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns (Oct 31)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Missouri Tigers 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 31 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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