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NCAAF · October 17, 2026

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs UL Monroe Warhawks Final — October 17, 2026

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

2-2

Quarterback Blake Baker

FINAL

UL Monroe Warhawks

0-4

Quarterback Aidan Armenta

Saturday, October 17 · 8:00 PM ET

LTOffense2026 regular season to dateULM

105th−0.032

EPA/play

+0.00789th

64th47.2%

Success %

42.5%109th

76th24.0

PPG

21.298th

LTDefenseULM

58th+0.035

EPA/play allowed

+0.299135th

64th46.2%

Success % allowed

52.8%129th

121st35.2

Opp PPG

46.2137th

LTRecent formULM

Wvs Northwestern State 80-6L@ LSU 14-45L@ Baylor 19-36Wvs Army 31-29Wvs Louisiana 32-31

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Mississippi State 13-62L@ UAB 20-26Lvs SE Louisiana 35-38Lvs Florida Atlantic 17-45L@ South Alabama 35-52

3-2

Record

0-5

4-1

ATS

1-4

5-0

Over–under

4-1

LTHome and roadseason to dateULM

3-0

Home record

0-2

Road record

0-3

2-1

Home ATS

0-2

2-0

Road ATS

1-2

3-0

Home O/U

2-0

Road O/U

2-1

LTLast 10 gamesULM

Game by game

3-2

Last 5

0-5

+29

Net points

-103

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

LTRest & travelULM

7 days

Days of rest

14 days

34 mi55 km

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Malone Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

Louisiana Tech (2-2) visited UL Monroe (0-4) on Saturday, October 17 at 8:00 PM ET.

Louisiana Tech has the 105th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 58th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UL Monroe has the 89th-ranked offense and the 135th-ranked defense. When Louisiana Tech has the ball, a 105th-ranked offense (−0.032 EPA per play) meets a 135th-ranked defense (+0.299 allowed); when UL Monroe has it, a 89th-ranked offense (+0.007) meets a 58th-ranked defense (+0.035 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Louisiana Tech offense is at 47.2% (64th) and the UL Monroe offense at 42.5% (109th). Louisiana Tech scores 24.0 points per game (76th) and allows 35.2 (121st); UL Monroe scores 21.2 (98th) and allows 46.2 (137th).

Louisiana Tech is 3-2 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 32-31 win over Louisiana. UL Monroe is 0-5 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 52-35 loss to South Alabama.

Louisiana Tech closed as a 13.5-point road favorite, with UL Monroe getting the points at home. The spread opened at Louisiana Tech -14.5. The total closed at 55.5, up from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Louisiana Tech -587, UL Monroe +425) prices Louisiana Tech at 82% and UL Monroe at 18%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 24, UL Monroe Warhawks 0

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs won by 24.

Against the closing spread (UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5): Louisiana Tech Bulldogs covered.
Combined score 24 vs the closing total of 55.5: Under.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs closed at -587 on the moneyline (a 82% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

82%Market at the close18%

Louisiana Tech BulldogsUL Monroe Warhawks

84%Market at the open16%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward UL Monroe Warhawks.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 82%, UL Monroe Warhawks 18%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q2 10:27 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 3rd & 12 at LT 9No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Tech13 (#3 N.Flemmings; #97 T.Brown)Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 74% → 81% (+8 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 6:36 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 1st & 10 at ULM 24No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Hurt rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULM23 (#3 N.Flemmings)UL Monroe Warhawks 16% → 27% (+11 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 6:08 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 2nd & 9 at ULM 23No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Calwise Jr. thrown to ULM10UL Monroe Warhawks 17% → 26% (+9 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 6:04 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 3rd & 9 at ULM 23No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Mickens thrown to ULM23 broken up by #17 C.PayneUL Monroe Warhawks 19% → 26% (+8 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Q3 15:00 — Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ball, 2nd & 7 at LT 9No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Baker sacked for loss of 5 yards to the Tech04 (#27 B.Pullen)Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 73% → 83% (+10 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Game DNA

Louisiana Tech	Points added	UL Monroe
-14.2	Passingdropbacks	-8.0
+0.6	Rushingdesigned runs	+1.8
+10.2	Explosive plays4 plays · 2 plays	+2.7
-2.2	Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways	-3.4
+2.8	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	-7.4
+3.6	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	-2.1
+6.0	Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 0 of 2	+0.4
+6.9	All plays	-16.0

Bar left: Louisiana Tech gainedBar right: UL Monroe gained

The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 10.2 points to Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. The final margin was 24.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

Line review

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs closed as the market favourite at 82% and won.

The line moved toward UL Monroe Warhawks before kickoff, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 1

OpenUL Monroe +14.5 (-110)
Louisiana Tech -14.5 (-110)

CloseUL Monroe +13.5 (-109)
Louisiana Tech -13.5 (-112)

Totalup 3

Open52.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Close55.5 (o -112 / u -109)

Moneyline

OpenLouisiana Tech -750 84%
UL Monroe +490 16%

CloseLouisiana Tech -587 82%
UL Monroe +425 18%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Louisiana Tech

QB · Blake Baker

Attempts78
Completion %67.9%42nd
Passing yards679229th
Yards per attempt8.746th
TD–INT7–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Andrew Burnette

Rushing yards207228th
Season line43 carries, 207 yds, 1 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jalen Mickens

Receiving yards43430th
Season line30 catches, 434 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (DB) · Sam Fongang

Tackles36169th

UL Monroe

QB · Aidan Armenta

Attempts107
Completion %63.6%100th
Passing yards848186th
Yards per attempt7.987th
TD–INT5–1

Leading rusher (QB) · Austin Carlisle

Rushing yards219207th
Season line37 carries, 219 yds, 1 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Marcellus Jackson

Receiving yards234206th
Season line26 catches, 234 yds

Leading tackler (LB) · Noah Flemmings

Tackles4370th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Louisiana Tech	UL Monroe
Early-down success rateLouisiana Tech offense vs UL Monroe defense	47.6%22nd	50.3%134th
Early-down success rateUL Monroe offense vs Louisiana Tech defense	41.2%42nd	42.9%74th
3rd-down conversion rateLouisiana Tech offense vs UL Monroe defense	39.1%79th	55.1%135th
3rd-down conversion rateUL Monroe offense vs Louisiana Tech defense	51.0%131st	26.2%131st
Explosive play rateLouisiana Tech offense vs UL Monroe defense	6.6%74th	9.2%125th
Explosive play rateUL Monroe offense vs Louisiana Tech defense	11.6%137th	4.1%132nd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	53.5%45th-highest	50.5%74th-highest

On 3rd down Louisiana Tech converts 39.1% (79th) against a UL Monroe defense allowing 55.1% (135th).

On 3rd down UL Monroe converts 26.2% (131st) against a Louisiana Tech defense allowing 51.0% (131st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Louisiana Tech	UL Monroe
Head coach	Sonny Cumbie	Bryant Vincent
Tenureat this school	5th season	3rd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	22–33	8–21
Career recordas an FBS head coach	24–36	15–27
Offensive coordinator	Nathan Young	Jesse Montalto
Defensive coordinator	Luke Olson	Troy Reffett

Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Teams