Mississippi State Bulldogs vs LSU Tigers Final — October 17, 2026
MSSTOffense2026 regular season to dateLSU
MSSTDefenseLSUMSSTRecent formLSUMSSTHome and roadseason to dateLSUMSSTLast 10 gamesLSURest & travelrest and travel
MSSTRest & travelLSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Mississippi State (4-1) visited LSU (3-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.
Mississippi State has the 24th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 93rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, LSU has the 80th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When Mississippi State has the ball, a 24th-ranked offense (+0.222 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.240 allowed); when LSU has it, a 80th-ranked offense (+0.031) meets a 93rd-ranked defense (+0.127 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Mississippi State offense is at 48.7% (50th) and the LSU offense at 50.7% (27th). Mississippi State scores 39.0 points per game (10th) and allows 28.0 (81st); LSU scores 37.8 (14th) and allows 19.4 (31st).
Mississippi State is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 56-23 loss to Alabama. LSU is 4-2; its last game was a 35-34 loss to Kentucky.
LSU closed as a 17.5-point favorite at home against Mississippi State. The spread opened at LSU -11.5. The total closed at 55.5, down from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Mississippi State +625, LSU -950) prices Mississippi State at 13% and LSU at 87%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31
LSU Tigers won by 31.
- Against the closing spread (LSU Tigers -17.5): LSU Tigers covered.
- Combined score 31 vs the closing total of 55.5: Under.
- LSU Tigers closed at -950 on the moneyline (a 87% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 9 points toward LSU Tigers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Mississippi State Bulldogs 13%, LSU Tigers 87%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:58 — Mississippi State Bulldogs ball, 4th & 11 at MSST 24#8 E.Pulliam punt 36 yards to the LSU40Mississippi State Bulldogs 5% → 11% (+6 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Mississippi State | Points added | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | Passingdropbacks | +4.4 |
| -10.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | +1.7 |
| +9.0 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +7.6 |
| -1.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -2.8 |
| +0.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.0 |
| -4.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.4 |
| -3.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 3 of 4 | +0.7 |
| -12.1 | All plays | +7.2 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 11.9 points to LSU Tigers. The final margin was 31.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
LSU Tigers closed as the market favourite at 87% and won.
The line moved toward LSU Tigers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Mississippi State +11.5 (-107)
Mississippi State +17.5 (-108)
LSU -450 78%
LSU -950 87%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts13
- Completion %53.8%
- Passing yards79
- Yards per attempt6.1
- TD–INT0–0
- Rushing yards40358th
- Season line74 carries, 403 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards57410th
- Season line40 catches, 574 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles31277th
- Attempts173
- Completion %67.6%46th
- Passing yards1,49542nd
- Yards per attempt8.649th
- TD–INT10–8
- Rushing yards48237th
- Season line110 carries, 482 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards41637th
- Season line29 catches, 416 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles40109th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMississippi State offense vs LSU defense | 43.5%68th | 37.2%11th |
| Early-down success rateLSU offense vs Mississippi State defense | 41.7%48th | 46.1%32nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMississippi State offense vs LSU defense | 51.9%11th | 32.8%19th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLSU offense vs Mississippi State defense | 39.7%67th | 51.8%12th |
| Explosive play rateMississippi State offense vs LSU defense | 9.1%15th | 6.2%51st |
| Explosive play rateLSU offense vs Mississippi State defense | 6.9%74th | 7.3%54th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.9%40th-highest | 47.9%89th-highest |
On 3rd down Mississippi State converts 51.9% (11th) against a LSU defense allowing 32.8% (19th).
On 3rd down LSU converts 51.8% (12th) against a Mississippi State defense allowing 39.7% (67th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Lebby | Lane Kiffin |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 11–19 | 4–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 11–19 | 120–54 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jeff Lebby | Charlie Weis Jr. |
| Defensive coordinator | Zach Arnett / Matt Brock | Blake Baker |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Mississippi State won 0 and LSU 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2023 | LSU 41, Mississippi State 14 LSU won | ||
| Sep 17, 2022 | Mississippi State 16, LSU 31 LSU won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | LSU 28, Mississippi State 25 LSU won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Mississippi State Bulldogs team stats
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns (Oct 31)
- Oklahoma Sooners 23, Mississippi State Bulldogs 15 (Oct 24)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Missouri Tigers 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 31 (Sep 26)
LSU Tigers
- LSU Tigers team stats
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- LSU Tigers 34, Kentucky Wildcats 35 (Oct 10)
- McNeese State Cowboys 14, LSU Tigers 63 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
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