Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Lions (2-1) visit the Panthers (1-2) at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 4.
The Lions have the 7th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 29th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers have the 10th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense. When the Lions have the ball, a 7th-ranked offense (+0.133 EPA per play) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.022 allowed); when the Panthers have it, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.053) meets a 29th-ranked defense (+0.149 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Lions offense is at 50.8% (4th) and the Panthers offense at 42.1% (19th). Through the air, the Lions average +0.247 EPA per dropback (8th) against a Panthers pass defense ranked 13th; the Panthers average +0.149 (11th) against a Lions pass defense ranked 26th. The Lions score 31.0 points per game (3rd) and allow 31.7 (32nd); the Panthers score 29.7 (5th) and allow 27.7 (26th).
Jared Goff has a 51.2% success rate (8th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bryce Young's 43.8% (23rd). Per dropback, Goff is at +0.247 EPA to Young's +0.142, with 8 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Young's 7 and 2.
The Lions are 2-1 and 0-2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-24 win over the Jets. The Panthers are 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 21-18 loss to the Browns.
The Lions are 3.5-point road favorites, with the Panthers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Lions -3. The total is 51, up from 49 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Lions -197, Panthers +164) prices the Lions at 64% and the Panthers at 36%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Lions2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks121
- Success rate51.2%8th
- EPA per dropback+0.2479th
- Completion %70.6%7th
- CPOE+3.117th
- Yards per attempt7.412th
- TD–INT8–0
- Sack rate5.8%17th
- Dropbacks130
- Success rate43.8%23rd
- EPA per dropback+0.14213th
- Completion %60.0%26th
- CPOE+4.510th
- Yards per attempt7.88th
- TD–INT7–2
- Sack rate5.4%14th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the Lions wide receivers with 228 receiving yards (12th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 32.4%. Jahmyr Gibbs has 307 rushing yards on 65 carries (4th of 44 qualified running backs). Tetairoa McMillan leads the Panthers wide receivers with 193 receiving yards (17th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.3%. Chuba Hubbard has 184 rushing yards on 41 carries (15th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries65
- Rush yards3074th
- Yards per carry4.711th
- EPA per rush−0.01716th
- Rush success rate50.8%6th
- Targets / catches35 / 23
- Receiving yards22812th
- Target share32.4%4th
- Yards per target6.560th
- EPA per target+0.28943rd
- Targets / catches19 / 14
- Receiving yards1447th
- Target share17.6%13th
- Yards per target7.613th
- EPA per target+0.5148th
- Carries41
- Rush yards18415th
- Yards per carry4.517th
- EPA per rush−0.02118th
- Rush success rate46.3%10th
- Targets / catches23 / 12
- Receiving yards19317th
- Target share21.3%35th
- Yards per target8.441st
- EPA per target−0.03365th
- Targets / catches13 / 10
- Receiving yards11215th
- Target share12.0%27th
- Yards per target8.69th
- EPA per target+0.36915th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 52.2%3rd | 41.3%11th |
| Early-down success ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 45.6%22nd | 44.0%13th |
| Early-down EPA per playLions offense vs Panthers defense | +0.1565th | −0.02014th |
| Early-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Lions defense | +0.09828th | +0.1613rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 41.2%15th | 45.2%24th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 57.5%31st | 36.8%22nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playLions offense vs Panthers defense | −0.14221st | −0.05415th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Lions defense | +0.13721st | −0.06918th |
| Red-zone TD rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 84.6%3rd | 85.7%32nd |
| Red-zone TD ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 84.6%31st | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateLions offense vs Panthers defense | 56.8%3rd | 48.0%21st |
| Red-zone success ratePanthers offense vs Lions defense | 48.5%23rd | 44.7%10th |
On early downs the Lions succeed on 52.2% of plays (3rd) against a Panthers defense that allows 41.3% (11th); on 3rd down they convert 41.2% (15th) against a defense allowing 45.2% (24th). On early downs the Panthers succeed on 44.0% of plays (13th) against a Lions defense that allows 45.6% (22nd); on 3rd down they convert 36.8% (22nd) against a defense allowing 57.5% (31st). The Lions score touchdowns on 84.6% of red-zone trips (3rd). The Panthers score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dan Campbell | Dave Canales |
| Offensive coordinator | Drew Petzing | Brad Idzik |
| Defensive coordinator | Kelvin Sheppard | Ejiro Evero |
| Offense tendencies | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 0.7%9th-highest | 2.4%7th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.4%17th-highest | 67.7%4th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.6%12th-highest | 62.7%5th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 45.7%29th-highest | 67.0%11th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 3.0%26th-highest | 5.2%15th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.415th-slowest | 28.832nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 13.2%23rd | 18.4%8th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.9%20th | 11.2%5th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 14.9%2nd | 11.3%9th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.8%16th | 5.3%13th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.51%2nd | 1.54%17th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 65.74th-most | 64.77th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
| Defense | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 8.2%5th | 6.0%19th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 18.9%25th | 10.2%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 12.1%28th | 6.5%10th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.9%27th | 10.8%22nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.86%14th | 3.02%6th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.0%15th | 13.0%24th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.0%28th | 14.4%13th |
The Lions pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (0.7% pass rate over expected, 9th-highest), while the Panthers sit at 2.4% (7th-highest). In neutral situations the Lions take 33.4 seconds between snaps and the Panthers 28.8, so the Panthers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Lions have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Panthers 2 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Lions have 7 days between games and the Panthers 7. The Lions travel about 505 miles.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
LionsPanthersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Lions won 2 and the Panthers 3. In the most recent meeting (October 8, 2023), the Lions won 42-24; the Panthers averaged −0.080 EPA per play; the Lions averaged +0.253 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2023 | Panthers 24, Lions 42 Lions won | Lions -9.5 Lions covered | 43.5 over | Panthers −0.080 · Lions +0.253 |
| Dec 24, 2022 | Lions 23, Panthers 37 Panthers won | Lions -2.5 Panthers covered | 43.5 over | Panthers +0.407 · Lions +0.066 |
| Nov 22, 2020 | Lions 0, Panthers 20 Panthers won | Lions -3 Panthers covered | 47 under | Panthers −0.052 · Lions −0.379 |
| Nov 18, 2018 | Panthers 19, Lions 20 Lions won | Panthers -4 Lions covered | 48 under | Panthers +0.175 · Lions +0.021 |
| Oct 8, 2017 | Panthers 27, Lions 24 Panthers won | Lions -2 Panthers covered | 42 over | Panthers +0.115 · Lions −0.184 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Lions -3 (-112)
Lions -3.5 (-112)
Panthers +130 42%
Panthers +164 36%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Lions -3-130ProphetX
- Panthers +3.5+102Novig
- Over 50.5-115FanDuel
- Under 51.5-108Polymarket
- Lions-185DraftKings
- Panthers+178Novig
Dig deeper
Teams
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
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