Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Final — October 25, 2026
GBStarting quarterbacksexpected startersDET
GBOffense2026 regular season to dateDETGBDefenseDETGBRecent formDETGBHome and roadseason to dateDETInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
GBRest & travelDETGBKey injuriesDETAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Packers (4-2) visited the Lions (3-2) at Ford Field on Sunday, October 25 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 7.
The Packers have the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 7th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Lions have the 3rd-ranked offense and the 31st-ranked defense. When the Packers have the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (−0.010 EPA per play) meets a 31st-ranked defense (+0.152 allowed); when the Lions have it, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.180) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.056 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Packers offense is at 40.2% (25th) and the Lions offense at 49.1% (3rd). Through the air, the Packers average +0.116 EPA per dropback (13th) against a Lions pass defense ranked 29th; the Lions average +0.283 (3rd) against a Packers pass defense ranked 4th. The Packers score 21.2 points per game (23rd) and allow 20.8 (10th); the Lions score 32.8 (2nd) and allow 29.6 (30th).
Over the last five games, the Packers rank 14th on offense and 10th on defense by EPA per play; the Lions rank 3rd and 32nd.
Jared Goff has a 50.0% success rate (8th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jordan Love's 42.9% (22nd). Per dropback, Goff is at +0.283 EPA to Love's +0.112, with 12 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Love's 11 and 4.
The Packers are 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread; their last game was a 23-13 win over the Cowboys. The Lions are 3-2 and 1-3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 45-21 win over the Cardinals. The Lions are coming off a bye.
The Lions closed as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Packers. The spread opened at Lions -3. The total closed at 55.5, up from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Packers +162, Lions -196) prices the Packers at 37% and the Lions at 63%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20
Detroit Lions won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Detroit Lions -3.5): Green Bay Packers covered.
- Combined score 37 vs the closing total of 55.5: Under.
- Detroit Lions closed at -196 on the moneyline (a 63% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Detroit Lions.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Green Bay Packers 37%, Detroit Lions 63%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 14:16 — Detroit Lions ball, 2nd & 3 at DET 4216-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 41, touched at DET 41, RECOVERED by GB-58-I.McDuffie at DET 42.Green Bay Packers 25% → 37% (+12 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:22 — Green Bay Packers ball, 3rd & 6 at DET 25(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Green Bay Packers 37% → 53% (+16 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:53 — Detroit Lions ball, 4th & 1 at DET 240-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 22 for -2 yards (25-K.Nixon).Green Bay Packers 48% → 74% (+27 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:25 — Green Bay Packers ball, 4th & 5 at DET 1728-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-D.Wonnum), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.Detroit Lions 34% → 65% (+31 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:45 — Detroit Lions ball, 2nd & 8 at DET 27(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 45 for 18 yards (29-X.McKinney; 58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on GB-94-K.Brooks, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DET 45.Detroit Lions 62% → 77% (+16 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Detroit Lions won after falling as low as 26% (Q4 4:50).
Game DNA
| Packers | Points added | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| -8.5 | Passingdropbacks | -0.8 |
| -3.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.8 |
| +21.8 | Explosive plays7 plays · 13 plays | +15.8 |
| -0.4 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -10.4 |
| -7.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.2 |
| -0.2 | Penalties8 for 81 yds · 5 for 50 yds | +1.9 |
| -6.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 2 of 5 | -2.0 |
| -4.8 | All plays | -2.4 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 10.0 points to Green Bay Packers. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Detroit Lions closed as the market favourite at 63% and won.
The line moved toward Detroit Lions before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Packers +3 (-110)
Packers +3.5 (-108)
Lions -164 59%
Lions -196 63%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Matthew Golden has 501 receiving yards for the Packers (6th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.8%. MarShawn Lloyd has 122 rushing yards on 48 carries (40th of 40 qualified running backs). Amon-Ra St. Brown has 372 receiving yards for the Lions (17th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 30.3%. Jahmyr Gibbs has 504 rushing yards on 105 carries (5th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries48
- Rush yards12240th
- Yards per carry2.540th
- EPA per rush−0.35140th
- Rush success rate31.2%36th
- Targets / catches57 / 30
- Receiving yards5016th
- Target share25.8%16th
- Yards per target8.830th
- EPA per target+0.24744th
- Targets / catches37 / 25
- Receiving yards24911th
- Target share16.7%15th
- Yards per target6.722nd
- EPA per target+0.20621st
- Carries105
- Rush yards5045th
- Yards per carry4.88th
- EPA per rush+0.04311th
- Rush success rate49.5%4th
- Targets / catches57 / 37
- Receiving yards37217th
- Target share30.3%5th
- Yards per target6.563rd
- EPA per target+0.18951st
- Targets / catches37 / 27
- Receiving yards3165th
- Target share19.7%8th
- Yards per target8.57th
- EPA per target+0.8542nd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Packers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePackers offense vs Lions defense | 40.2%24th | 45.6%27th |
| Early-down success rateLions offense vs Packers defense | 41.8%11th | 50.4%2nd |
| Early-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Lions defense | −0.04121st | +0.10828th |
| Early-down EPA per playLions offense vs Packers defense | −0.1242nd | +0.1703rd |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePackers offense vs Lions defense | 36.0%24th | 51.4%30th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLions offense vs Packers defense | 43.9%24th | 37.3%22nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Lions defense | −0.01913th | +0.08022nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playLions offense vs Packers defense | +0.21328th | −0.10021st |
| Red-zone TD ratePackers offense vs Lions defense | 52.4%24th | 81.0%30th |
| Red-zone TD rateLions offense vs Packers defense | 68.2%23rd | 81.0%2nd |
| Red-zone success ratePackers offense vs Lions defense | 43.1%15th | 47.3%23rd |
| Red-zone success rateLions offense vs Packers defense | 52.9%31st | 48.6%6th |
On early downs the Packers succeed on 40.2% of plays (24th) against a Lions defense that allows 45.6% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 36.0% (24th) against a defense allowing 51.4% (30th). On early downs the Lions succeed on 50.4% of plays (2nd) against a Packers defense that allows 41.8% (11th); on 3rd down they convert 37.3% (22nd) against a defense allowing 43.9% (24th). The Packers score touchdowns on 52.4% of red-zone trips (24th). The Lions score touchdowns on 81.0% of red-zone trips (2nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Packers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt LaFleur | Dan Campbell |
| Offensive coordinator | Adam Stenavich | Drew Petzing |
| Defensive coordinator | Jonathan Gannon | Kelvin Sheppard |
| Offense tendencies | Packers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | 3.3%5th-highest | 0.7%9th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 67.3%3rd-highest | 62.7%14th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 61.3%6th-highest | 56.9%13th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 67.5%8th-highest | 49.7%30th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 9.0%7th-highest | 5.8%13th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 34.16th-slowest | 31.627th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 16.3%14th | 14.8%18th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 10.6%7th | 8.7%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 7.8%20th | 14.9%3rd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 5.4%14th | 5.3%13th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.96%20th | 0.30%1st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 59.521st-most | 66.07th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 7 of 9 | 4 of 5 |
| Defense | Packers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 6.1%18th | 8.2%4th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 10.6%2nd | 17.6%24th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 4.4%1st | 10.4%26th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 8.2%12th | 11.0%26th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.79%2nd | 1.41%26th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 15.3%18th | 18.6%5th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 19.2%29th | 15.0%14th |
The Packers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.3% pass rate over expected, 5th-highest), while the Lions sit at 0.7% (9th-highest). In neutral situations the Packers take 34.1 seconds between snaps and the Lions 31.6, so the Lions play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Packers have gone for it 7 of 9 times and the Lions 4 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Packers won 11 and the Lions 11. In the most recent meeting (November 27, 2025), the Packers won 31-24; the Lions averaged +0.039 EPA per play; the Packers averaged +0.289 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2025 | Packers 31, Lions 24 Packers won | Lions -2.5 Packers covered | 48.5 over | Lions +0.039 · Packers +0.289 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Lions 13, Packers 27 Packers won | Packers -1.5 Packers covered | 48.5 under | Lions −0.062 · Packers +0.200 |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Packers 31, Lions 34 Lions won | Lions -3 push | 53 over | Lions +0.061 · Packers +0.132 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Lions 24, Packers 14 Lions won | Lions -2.5 Lions covered | 47.5 under | Lions +0.127 · Packers −0.016 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | Packers 29, Lions 22 Packers won | Lions -8.5 Packers covered | 47 over | Lions −0.139 · Packers +0.146 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Green Bay Packers
- Green Bay Packers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Oct 29)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
Detroit Lions
- Detroit Lions team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Nov 1)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 (Sep 17)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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