Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Final — October 18, 2026
DALStarting quarterbacksexpected startersGB
DALOffense2026 regular season to dateGBDALDefenseGBDALRecent formGBDALHome and roadseason to dateGBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelGBDALKey injuriesGBAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Cowboys (2-3) visited the Packers (3-2) at Lambeau Field on Sunday, October 18 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 6.
The Cowboys have the 7th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 32nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Packers have the 18th-ranked offense and the 11th-ranked defense. When the Cowboys have the ball, a 7th-ranked offense (+0.127 EPA per play) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.039 allowed); when the Packers have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.021) meets a 32nd-ranked defense (+0.193 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cowboys offense is at 47.9% (6th) and the Packers offense at 40.7% (24th). Through the air, the Cowboys average +0.194 EPA per dropback (8th) against a Packers pass defense ranked 3rd; the Packers average +0.111 (13th) against a Cowboys pass defense ranked 32nd. The Cowboys score 27.6 points per game (7th) and allow 27.2 (25th); the Packers score 20.8 (24th) and allow 22.4 (14th).
Dak Prescott has a 50.5% success rate (8th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jordan Love's 42.2% (26th). Per dropback, Prescott is at +0.195 EPA to Love's +0.106, with 9 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Love's 10 and 3.
The Cowboys are 2-3 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers. The Packers are 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 31-7 win over the Bears.
The Cowboys closed as 1.5-point road favorites, with the Packers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Cowboys -1. The total closed at 53.5, up from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Cowboys -113, Packers -105) prices the Cowboys at 51% and the Packers at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23
Green Bay Packers won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Green Bay Packers +1.5): Green Bay Packers covered.
- Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 53.5: Under.
- Green Bay Packers closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Cowboys 51%, Green Bay Packers 49%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:58 — Green Bay Packers ball, 3rd & 13 at GB 27(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to DAL 46 for 27 yards.Green Bay Packers 51% → 59% (+8 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 4:46 — Green Bay Packers ball, 3rd & 6 at DAL 9(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Green Bay Packers 62% → 69% (+7 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 1:53 — Green Bay Packers ball, 2nd & 12 at GB 39(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and tDallas Cowboys 26% → 35% (+9 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 14:23 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 3rd & 8 at GB 17(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB 3. 33-E.Williams to GB 20 for 17 yards (87-J.Ferguson).Green Bay Packers 65% → 74% (+9 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:00 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 1st & 15 at GB 33(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 2-B.Cisse at GB 18. 2-B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (3-G.Pickens).Green Bay Packers 75% → 84% (+9 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Cowboys | Points added | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 | Passingdropbacks | -3.2 |
| -1.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.5 |
| +8.6 | Explosive plays4 plays · 7 plays | +16.8 |
| -8.3 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.5 |
| +1.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.5 |
| +0.8 | Penalties11 for 108 yds · 11 for 96 yds | +0.7 |
| -1.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 2 of 4 | -0.3 |
| -7.3 | All plays | +4.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.2 points to Green Bay Packers. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Dallas Cowboys closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Cowboys -1 (-108)
Cowboys -1.5 (-102)
Packers -104 49%
Packers -105 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
CeeDee Lamb has 507 receiving yards for the Cowboys (3rd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.4%. Javonte Williams has 276 rushing yards on 74 carries (18th of 41 qualified running backs). Matthew Golden has 397 receiving yards for the Packers (9th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.3%.
- Carries74
- Rush yards27618th
- Yards per carry3.726th
- EPA per rush−0.00716th
- Rush success rate43.2%12th
- Targets / catches51 / 39
- Receiving yards5073rd
- Target share27.4%11th
- Yards per target9.919th
- EPA per target+0.74010th
- Targets / catches21 / 15
- Receiving yards10231st
- Target share11.3%31st
- Yards per target4.934th
- EPA per target−0.26531st
- Carries27
- Rush yards106
- Yards per carry3.9
- EPA per rush−0.440
- Rush success rate29.6%
- Targets / catches44 / 24
- Receiving yards3979th
- Target share24.3%20th
- Yards per target9.031st
- EPA per target+0.28644th
- Targets / catches29 / 20
- Receiving yards21213th
- Target share16.0%17th
- Yards per target7.317th
- EPA per target+0.23221st
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Cowboys | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCowboys offense vs Packers defense | 47.1%6th | 41.4%9th |
| Early-down success ratePackers offense vs Cowboys defense | 51.8%32nd | 42.8%17th |
| Early-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Packers defense | +0.1436th | −0.1451st |
| Early-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.23532nd | +0.00715th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCowboys offense vs Packers defense | 49.2%4th | 44.9%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePackers offense vs Cowboys defense | 54.5%32nd | 28.1%32nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Packers defense | +0.08410th | +0.35130th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.23227th | −0.22630th |
| Red-zone TD rateCowboys offense vs Packers defense | 78.9%3rd | 72.2%25th |
| Red-zone TD ratePackers offense vs Cowboys defense | 71.4%24th | 52.9%24th |
| Red-zone success rateCowboys offense vs Packers defense | 42.6%16th | 56.6%32nd |
| Red-zone success ratePackers offense vs Cowboys defense | 51.7%27th | 44.2%12th |
On early downs the Cowboys succeed on 47.1% of plays (6th) against a Packers defense that allows 41.4% (9th); on 3rd down they convert 49.2% (4th) against a defense allowing 44.9% (25th). On early downs the Packers succeed on 42.8% of plays (17th) against a Cowboys defense that allows 51.8% (32nd); on 3rd down they convert 28.1% (32nd) against a defense allowing 54.5% (32nd). The Cowboys score touchdowns on 78.9% of red-zone trips (3rd). The Packers score touchdowns on 52.9% of red-zone trips (24th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Cowboys | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brian Schottenheimer | Matt LaFleur |
| Offensive coordinator | Klayton Adams | Adam Stenavich |
| Defensive coordinator | Christian Parker | Jonathan Gannon |
| Offense tendencies | Cowboys | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | 3.8%3rd-highest | 2.9%6th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 68.7%1st-highest | 67.9%2nd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 64.0%1st-highest | 62.2%5th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 67.5%7th-highest | 66.4%11th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 9.8%6th-highest | 8.7%8th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 31.128th-slowest | 34.45th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 14.3%19th | 16.7%13th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 6.9%27th | 10.2%8th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 7.3%22nd | 8.7%19th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 2.8%2nd | 5.1%9th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 1.30%10th | 2.07%19th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 61.017th-most | 57.824th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
| Defense | Cowboys | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 3.1%29th | 7.4%9th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 19.2%28th | 11.6%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 11.5%29th | 5.2%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 11.3%28th | 9.0%14th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 0.66%31st | 2.78%4th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.2%30th | 16.1%16th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.4%10th | 19.4%30th |
The Cowboys pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.8% pass rate over expected, 3rd-highest), while the Packers sit at 2.9% (6th-highest). In neutral situations the Cowboys take 31.1 seconds between snaps and the Packers 34.4, so the Cowboys play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Cowboys have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Packers 7 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 8 times since 2015: the Cowboys won 1 and the Packers 6, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (September 28, 2025), the teams tied 40-40; the Cowboys averaged +0.358 EPA per play; the Packers averaged +0.341 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2025 | Packers 40, Cowboys 40 Tie | Packers -7 Cowboys covered | 47.5 over | Cowboys +0.358 · Packers +0.341 |
| Jan 14, 2024 playoffs | Packers 48, Cowboys 32 Packers won | Cowboys -7 Packers covered | 52.5 over | Cowboys +0.056 · Packers +0.477 |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Cowboys 28, Packers 31 Packers won | Cowboys -3.5 Packers covered | 44.5 over | Cowboys +0.008 · Packers +0.232 |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Packers 34, Cowboys 24 Packers won | Cowboys -3.5 Packers covered | 46.5 over | Cowboys +0.058 · Packers +0.117 |
| Oct 8, 2017 | Packers 35, Cowboys 31 Packers won | Cowboys -2.5 Packers covered | 52 over | Cowboys +0.141 · Packers +0.335 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Dallas Cowboys
- Dallas Cowboys team stats
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 1)
- Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Oct 26)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16 (Oct 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
Green Bay Packers
- Green Bay Packers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Oct 29)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
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