Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Dolphins (0-3) visit the Vikings (3-0) at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 4.
The Dolphins have the 27th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 30th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings have the 25th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When the Dolphins have the ball, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.127 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.180 allowed); when the Vikings have it, a 25th-ranked offense (−0.119) meets a 30th-ranked defense (+0.162 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Dolphins offense is at 34.7% (31st) and the Vikings offense at 30.9% (32nd). Through the air, the Dolphins average −0.035 EPA per dropback (22nd) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 2nd; the Vikings average −0.088 (25th) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 32nd. The Dolphins score 12.0 points per game (31st) and allow 28.7 (28th); the Vikings score 23.7 (16th) and allow 13.7 (2nd).
Carson Wentz has a 40.0% success rate (28th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Malik Willis' 37.5% (32nd). Per dropback, Wentz is at +0.076 EPA to Willis' −0.035, with 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Willis' 1 and 2.
The Dolphins are 0-3 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 24-10 loss to the Chiefs. The Vikings are 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread; their last game was a 23-16 win over the Buccaneers.
The Vikings are 10.5-point favorites at home against the Dolphins. The spread opened at Vikings -10. The total is 38.5, down from 41.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Dolphins +455, Vikings -625) prices the Dolphins at 17% and the Vikings at 83%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Dolphins2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks107
- Success rate37.5%32nd
- EPA per dropback−0.03525th
- Completion %57.0%30th
- CPOE−8.131st
- Yards per attempt7.314th
- TD–INT1–2
- Sack rate8.4%28th
- Dropbacks47
- Success rate40.0%28th
- EPA per dropback+0.07618th
- Completion %59.0%28th
- CPOE−7.830th
- Yards per attempt7.120th
- TD–INT3–0
- Sack rate12.8%34th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Malik Washington leads the Dolphins wide receivers with 152 receiving yards (30th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.1%. De'Von Achane has 127 rushing yards on 34 carries (29th of 44 qualified running backs). Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings wide receivers with 179 receiving yards (23rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.4%. Aaron Jones has 203 rushing yards on 52 carries (12th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries34
- Rush yards12729th
- Yards per carry3.730th
- EPA per rush−0.17131st
- Rush success rate35.3%31st
- Targets / catches23 / 12
- Receiving yards15230th
- Target share27.1%11th
- Yards per target6.659th
- EPA per target−0.21875th
- Targets / catches12 / 9
- Receiving yards9019th
- Target share14.1%20th
- Yards per target7.514th
- EPA per target+0.22020th
- Carries52
- Rush yards20312th
- Yards per carry3.926th
- EPA per rush−0.09227th
- Rush success rate32.7%36th
- Targets / catches17 / 13
- Receiving yards17923rd
- Target share25.4%17th
- Yards per target10.518th
- EPA per target+0.8638th
- Targets / catches13 / 9
- Receiving yards7623rd
- Target share19.4%11th
- Yards per target5.829th
- EPA per target+0.40314th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 30.2%31st | 34.2%1st |
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 48.5%27th | 26.1%32nd |
| Early-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | −0.15231st | −0.0714th |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.06024th | −0.17832nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 41.5%14th | 22.7%1st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 50.0%28th | 30.2%31st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | +0.2418th | −0.3795th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.75731st | −0.06919th |
| Red-zone TD rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 33.3%29th | 11.1%1st |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 78.6%30th | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateDolphins offense vs Vikings defense | 43.5%12th | 17.2%1st |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Dolphins defense | 43.6%16th | 42.9%14th |
On early downs the Dolphins succeed on 30.2% of plays (31st) against a Vikings defense that allows 34.2% (1st); on 3rd down they convert 41.5% (14th) against a defense allowing 22.7% (1st). On early downs the Vikings succeed on 26.1% of plays (32nd) against a Dolphins defense that allows 48.5% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 30.2% (31st) against a defense allowing 50.0% (28th). The Dolphins score touchdowns on 33.3% of red-zone trips (29th). The Vikings score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Hafley | Kevin O'Connell |
| Offensive coordinator | Bobby Slowik | Wes Phillips |
| Defensive coordinator | Sean Duggan | Brian Flores |
| Offense tendencies | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −8.7%29th-highest | −6.0%25th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.9%15th-highest | 53.9%28th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.3%14th-highest | 42.0%31st-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 61.3%15th-highest | 54.3%20th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 1.7%28th-highest | 5.5%13th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 34.010th-slowest | 34.09th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 12.2%27th | 13.9%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 10.2%7th | 7.6%23rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 6.2%26th | 5.3%30th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 8.4%28th | 10.1%31st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 2.31%22nd | 1.21%14th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 57.724th-most | 54.728th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 0.0%32nd | 10.5%1st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 22.2%30th | 13.4%10th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.1%26th | 10.1%22nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 8.9%15th | 7.6%10th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.88%13th | 3.00%7th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.1%28th | 26.3%1st |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.0%10th | 14.8%14th |
The Dolphins run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−8.7% pass rate over expected, 29th-highest), while the Vikings sit at −6.0% (25th-highest). In neutral situations the Dolphins take 34.0 seconds between snaps and the Vikings 34.0, so the Dolphins play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Dolphins have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Vikings 2 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Dolphins have 7 days between games and the Vikings 7. The Dolphins travel about 1,500 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour back.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
DolphinsVikingsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Dolphins won 0 and the Vikings 2. In the most recent meeting (October 16, 2022), the Vikings won 24-16; the Dolphins averaged −0.128 EPA per play; the Vikings averaged −0.109 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2022 | Vikings 24, Dolphins 16 Vikings won | Vikings -3 Vikings covered | 45 under | Dolphins −0.128 · Vikings −0.109 |
| Dec 16, 2018 | Dolphins 17, Vikings 41 Vikings won | Vikings -7.5 Vikings covered | 45 over | Dolphins −0.407 · Vikings +0.109 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Dolphins +10 (-112)
Dolphins +10.5 (-110)
Vikings -625 83%
Vikings -625 83%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Dolphins +10.5-105FanDuel
- Vikings -10.5+104Polymarket
- Over 39-108BetMGM
- Under 38.5+104Polymarket
- Dolphins+510ProphetX
- Vikings-525Novig
Dig deeper
Teams
Miami Dolphins
- Miami Dolphins team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 (Sep 20)
- Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Sep 13)
Minnesota Vikings
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