Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Final — October 18, 2026
PITStarting quarterbacksexpected startersTB
PITOffense2026 regular season to dateTBPITDefenseTBPITRecent formTBPITHome and roadseason to dateTBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
PITRest & travelTBPITKey injuriesTBAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Steelers (3-2) visited the Buccaneers (1-4) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 6.
The Steelers have the 21st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have the 27th-ranked offense and the 7th-ranked defense. When the Steelers have the ball, a 21st-ranked offense (−0.046 EPA per play) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.057 allowed); when the Buccaneers have it, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.088) meets a 18th-ranked defense (0.000 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Steelers offense is at 41.7% (21st) and the Buccaneers offense at 40.9% (23rd). Through the air, the Steelers average −0.102 EPA per dropback (26th) against a Buccaneers pass defense ranked 16th; the Buccaneers average −0.140 (29th) against a Steelers pass defense ranked 18th. The Steelers score 22.2 points per game (18th) and allow 21.8 (10th); the Buccaneers score 20.0 (25th) and allow 22.4 (14th).
Jalon Daniels has a 45.8% success rate (19th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Aaron Rodgers' 42.0% (27th). Per dropback, Daniels is at +0.052 EPA to Rodgers' −0.084, with 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Rodgers' 10 and 4. Jalon Daniels is in line to start in place of Baker Mayfield, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Steelers are 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 34-22 win over the Colts. The Buccaneers are 1-4 and 1-4 against the spread; their last game was a 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
The Steelers closed as 2.5-point road favorites, with the Buccaneers getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 37.5, down from 40.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Steelers -135, Buccaneers +115) prices the Steelers at 55% and the Buccaneers at 45%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5): Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 37.5: Over.
- Pittsburgh Steelers closed at -135 on the moneyline (a 55% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Steelers 55%, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 2:47 — Pittsburgh Steelers ball, 3rd & 4 at TB 31(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at TB 40 for -9 yards (51-D.Walker).Tampa Bay Buccaneers 49% → 73% (+24 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:00 — Pittsburgh Steelers ball, 4th & 13 at TB 409-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.Pittsburgh Steelers 27% → 43% (+15 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:46 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers ball, 2nd & 10 at TB 37(Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).Pittsburgh Steelers 42% → 94% (+52 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:13 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers ball, 4th & 2 at PIT 354-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26% → 49% (+22 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 9:11 — Pittsburgh Steelers ball, 3rd & 13 at PIT 27(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone) [51-D.Walker]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play wasPittsburgh Steelers 50% → 71% (+21 pts) · Drive 28 in Drive X-Ray
Pittsburgh Steelers won after falling as low as 8% (Q3 3:14).
Game DNA
| Steelers | Points added | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| -17.9 | Passingdropbacks | -11.1 |
| -5.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.0 |
| +13.9 | Explosive plays8 plays · 6 plays | +6.5 |
| -5.3 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -10.1 |
| +3.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.9 |
| +2.4 | Penalties5 for 62 yds · 4 for 38 yds | +1.5 |
| -0.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 1 of 2 | -1.6 |
| -9.2 | All plays | -16.8 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 7.4 points to Pittsburgh Steelers. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Pittsburgh Steelers closed as the market favourite at 55% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Steelers -2.5 (-114)
Steelers -2.5 (-110)
Buccaneers +118 44%
Buccaneers +115 45%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
DK Metcalf has 225 receiving yards for the Steelers (38th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.3%. Jaylen Warren has 410 rushing yards on 70 carries (6th of 41 qualified running backs). Emeka Egbuka has 192 receiving yards for the Buccaneers (49th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.6%. Bucky Irving has 406 rushing yards on 77 carries (8th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries70
- Rush yards4106th
- Yards per carry5.92nd
- EPA per rush+0.0943rd
- Rush success rate45.7%8th
- Targets / catches37 / 19
- Receiving yards22538th
- Target share21.3%30th
- Yards per target6.170th
- EPA per target−0.03270th
- Targets / catches26 / 19
- Receiving yards16919th
- Target share14.9%20th
- Yards per target6.523rd
- EPA per target+0.26519th
- Carries77
- Rush yards4068th
- Yards per carry5.36th
- EPA per rush+0.0797th
- Rush success rate41.6%18th
- Targets / catches33 / 21
- Receiving yards19249th
- Target share22.6%23rd
- Yards per target5.874th
- EPA per target−0.03771st
- Targets / catches27 / 18
- Receiving yards18215th
- Target share18.5%11th
- Yards per target6.722nd
- EPA per target+0.18623rd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Steelers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSteelers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 43.0%16th | 42.6%13th |
| Early-down success rateBuccaneers offense vs Steelers defense | 46.2%26th | 41.1%22nd |
| Early-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Buccaneers defense | +0.01114th | +0.00717th |
| Early-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Steelers defense | +0.01719th | −0.06024th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSteelers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 33.3%28th | 33.9%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuccaneers offense vs Steelers defense | 32.8%7th | 38.2%19th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.29331st | −0.3305th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Steelers defense | −0.2607th | −0.10220th |
| Red-zone TD rateSteelers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 54.5%20th | 53.8%10th |
| Red-zone TD rateBuccaneers offense vs Steelers defense | 50.0%4th | 50.0%27th |
| Red-zone success rateSteelers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 36.4%27th | 43.9%19th |
| Red-zone success rateBuccaneers offense vs Steelers defense | 37.5%9th | 47.9%8th |
On early downs the Steelers succeed on 43.0% of plays (16th) against a Buccaneers defense that allows 42.6% (13th); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (28th) against a defense allowing 33.9% (8th). On early downs the Buccaneers succeed on 41.1% of plays (22nd) against a Steelers defense that allows 46.2% (26th); on 3rd down they convert 38.2% (19th) against a defense allowing 32.8% (7th). The Steelers score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th). The Buccaneers score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (27th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Steelers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike McCarthy | Todd Bowles |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Angelichio | Zac Robinson |
| Defensive coordinator | Patrick Graham | — |
| Offense tendencies | Steelers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | 3.6%4th-highest | −2.9%18th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 67.5%3rd-highest | 62.8%12th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 63.4%2nd-highest | 55.3%14th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 66.7%10th-highest | 63.8%14th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 9.7%7th-highest | 6.6%12th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.713th-slowest | 33.911th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 13.2%23rd | 9.9%31st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 9.0%17th | 7.0%26th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 10.3%13th | 9.0%18th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.9%21st | 9.0%29th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 1.99%18th | 2.99%27th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 60.020th-most | 60.219th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 3 of 4 | 4 of 7 |
| Defense | Steelers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.3%14th | 3.4%28th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 15.2%16th | 16.3%19th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 12.2%30th | 8.1%12th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 9.3%16th | 8.1%8th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 2.39%9th | 2.16%14th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.3%19th | 11.2%29th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.3%21st | 15.3%17th |
The Steelers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.6% pass rate over expected, 4th-highest), while the Buccaneers sit at −2.9% (18th-highest). In neutral situations the Steelers take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the Buccaneers 33.9, so the Steelers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Steelers have gone for it 3 of 4 times and the Buccaneers 4 of 7.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Steelers won 2 and the Buccaneers 0. In the most recent meeting (October 16, 2022), the Steelers won 20-18; the Steelers averaged +0.030 EPA per play; the Buccaneers averaged +0.071 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2022 | Buccaneers 18, Steelers 20 Steelers won | Buccaneers -10 Steelers covered | 47 under | Steelers +0.030 · Buccaneers +0.071 |
| Sep 24, 2018 | Steelers 30, Buccaneers 27 Steelers won | Buccaneers -1 Steelers covered | 55 over | Steelers +0.151 · Buccaneers −0.006 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pittsburgh Steelers team stats
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers team stats
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Nov 1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16 (Oct 8)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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