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NHL · October 10, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes vs Chicago Blackhawks Final — October 10, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes

3-1-1

Goalie Brandon Bussi Confirmed

FINAL

Chicago Blackhawks

1-4-0

Goalie Spencer Knight Confirmed

Saturday, October 10 · 7:10 PM ET

CARStarting goaliesCHI

This season

Starts

.851

Sv%

.891

.667

HDSv%

.824

−3.4

GSAx

+0.7

Last season

Starts

.895

Sv%

.902

.822

HDSv%

.876

+0.9

GSAx

+13.5

CAROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CHI

2nd3.61

GF/G

2.6031st

4th9.11

PP GF/60

6.1926th

CARDefenseCHI

4th2.93

GA/G

3.3527th

13th7.23

PK GA/60

5.852nd

CARTeamCHI

2nd68.9%

Pts%

43.9%31st

2nd56.4%

xGF%

43.2%32nd

1st59.8%

CF%

45.6%30th

8th53.7%

HDCF%

43.2%30th

CAR5-on-5CHI

1st3.06

xGF/60

2.1531st

7th2.37

xGA/60

2.8231st

24th8.9%

Sh%

9.6%16th

26th89.5%

Sv%

90.0%23rd

13th116.5

CF/60 (both)

109.029th

21st−0.08

GAx/G

−0.0318th

19th−0.06

GSAx/G

+0.0613th

17th10.5%

Sh%

10.0%22nd

26th88.6%

Sv%

89.6%16th

1st57.9%

xGF% (L20)

40.4%32nd

CARSpecial teamsCHI

9th8.18

PP xG/60

6.5731st

4th83.8

PP FF/60

66.931st

18th4.7

PP min/G

4.715th

3rd6.47

PK xGA/60

8.2828th

13th4.6

PK min/G

4.818th

CARRecent formCHI

OTLvs FLA 0-1Lvs WSH 2-5W@ PHI 3-2W@ MTL 6-4Wvs VAN 7-2

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ VGK 2-5L@ UTA 0-6L@ BUF 3-4Wvs STL 4-2L@ NYI 1-4

Game by game

3-1-1

Record

1-4-0

3-1-1

Last 5

1-4-0

3-2

Over–under

—

CARHome and roadseason to dateCHI

1-1-1

Home record

1-0-0

2-0-0

Road record

0-4-0

2-1

Home O/U

—

1-1

Road O/U

—

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

CARRest & travelCHI

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

638 mi1,027 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

CARKey injuriesCHI

Seth Jarvis CIR

Players out or limited

Connor Bedard CIRFrank Nazar CSuspended

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 6:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Hurricanes (3-1-1) visited the Blackhawks (1-4-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Hurricanes scored 3.61 goals per game (2nd of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Blackhawks scored 2.60 goals per game (31st of 32) and allowed 3.35 (27th). The Hurricanes earned 68.9% of available standings points (2nd) and the Blackhawks 43.9% (31st).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Hurricanes 56.4% (2nd), Blackhawks 43.2% (32nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Hurricanes 59.8% (1st), Blackhawks 45.6% (30th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Hurricanes 53.7% (8th), Blackhawks 43.2% (30th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hurricanes -260, Blackhawks +210) prices the Hurricanes at 69% and the Blackhawks at 31%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2

Carolina Hurricanes won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Chicago Blackhawks +1.5): Carolina Hurricanes covered.
Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
Carolina Hurricanes closed at -260 on the moneyline (a 69% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 5
Chicago Blackhawks 2

Decided

In regulation

Carolina Hurricanes won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

69%Market at the close31%

Carolina HurricanesChicago Blackhawks

66%Market at the open34%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Carolina Hurricanes.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Carolina Hurricanes 69%, Chicago Blackhawks 31%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 19:03 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (1-0)Carolina Hurricanes 67% → 81% (+15 pts)
2nd 2:09 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (2-0)Carolina Hurricanes 81% → 91% (+10 pts)
2nd 3:28 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (3-0)Carolina Hurricanes 92% → 97% (+5 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

69%CAR

Share of G&W replays won

31%CHI

3.7

Expected goals

2.2

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Carolina Hurricanes won 69% of G&W replays (Chicago Blackhawks 31%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Carolina Hurricanes. Here is where that came from.

Hurricanes	Goals	Blackhawks
3.4	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.1
0.2	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.1
0.1	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
3.7	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.2
0.1	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.5
0.5	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.6
+1.1	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-0.8
+0.8	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Brandon Bussi 24/26 · Spencer Knight 34/39	-1.1

Bar left: Hurricanes gainedBar right: Blackhawks gained

How the margin was built, from Carolina Hurricanes's side:

Chances +1.1Finishing & goaltending +1.9Carolina Hurricanes by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Carolina Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 69% and won.

The line moved toward Carolina Hurricanes before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenBlackhawks +1.5 (-135)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+110)

CloseBlackhawks +1.5 (-120)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+100)

Totalno move

Open5.5 (o -134 / u +110)

Close5.5 (o -132 / u +109)

Moneyline

OpenHurricanes -218 66%
Blackhawks +180 34%

CloseHurricanes -260 69%
Blackhawks +210 31%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 22 times since 2018-19: the Hurricanes won 18 and the Blackhawks 4.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Apr 9, 2026	Hurricanes 7, Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -183 favorite won	6 over
Jan 22, 2026	Blackhawks 4, Hurricanes 3 SO Blackhawks won	Hurricanes -300 underdog won	6 over
Jan 30, 2025	Blackhawks 2, Hurricanes 3 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -440 favorite won	6 under
Jan 20, 2025	Hurricanes 4, Blackhawks 3 OT Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -310 favorite won	6 over
Apr 14, 2024	Hurricanes 4, Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -385 favorite won	5.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams