Utah Mammoth vs Buffalo Sabres Final — October 10, 2026
UTAHStarting goaliesBUF
UTAHOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)BUFUTAHDefenseBUFUTAHTeamBUFUTAH5-on-5BUFUTAHSpecial teamsBUFUTAHRecent formBUFUTAHHome and roadseason to dateBUFInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
UTAHRest & travelBUFUTAHKey injuriesBUFAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Mammoth (3-2-0) visited the Sabres (2-2-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Mammoth scored 3.27 goals per game (13th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Mammoth earned 56.1% of available standings points (15th) and the Sabres 66.5% (4th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Mammoth 53.4% (6th), Sabres 50.5% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Mammoth 53.1% (4th), Sabres 49.3% (16th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Mammoth 53.0% (11th), Sabres 51.7% (13th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Mammoth -110, Sabres -108) prices the Mammoth at 50% and the Sabres at 50%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Utah Mammoth won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Sabres +1.5): Utah Mammoth covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Utah Mammoth closed at -110 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Buffalo Sabres 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Utah Mammoth.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Utah Mammoth 50%, Buffalo Sabres 50%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 10:12 — Utah Mammoth goal (1-1)Utah Mammoth 34% → 50% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 15:23 — Utah Mammoth goal (2-1)Utah Mammoth 52% → 75% (+23 pts)
- 2nd 17:24 — Utah Mammoth goal (3-1)Utah Mammoth 74% → 89% (+15 pts)
Utah Mammoth won after falling as low as 33% (1st 8:00).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Utah Mammoth won 74% of G&W replays (Buffalo Sabres 26%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Utah Mammoth. Here is where that came from.
| Mammoth | Goals | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.3 |
| 0.9 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.9 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 4.2 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.2 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.6 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -0.2 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.8 |
| +1.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Karel Vejmelka 23/24 · Colten Ellis 26/30 | +0.2 |
How the margin was built, from Utah Mammoth's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Utah Mammoth closed as the market favourite at 50% and won.
The line moved toward Utah Mammoth before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Mammoth +1.5 (-245)
Mammoth -1.5 (+200)
Sabres -120 52%
Sabres -108 50%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Mammoth won 8 and the Sabres 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2025 | Sabres 2, Mammoth 5 Mammoth won | Mammoth -210 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Mammoth 2, Sabres 1 OT Mammoth won | Mammoth -140 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Sabres 2, Mammoth 5 Mammoth won | ||
| Dec 7, 2024 | Mammoth 5, Sabres 2 Mammoth won | ||
| Dec 16, 2023 | Sabres 0, Mammoth 2 Mammoth won |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Utah Mammoth
- Utah Mammoth team stats
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 24)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
Buffalo Sabres
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 10)
- Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 10)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 10)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1 (Oct 10)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Oct 10)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3 (Oct 10)
- Detroit Red Wings 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (Oct 10)
- Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (Oct 10)
- Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Oct 10)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St Louis Blues 5 (Oct 10)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 10)
- Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 10)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 10)
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