Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Final — October 10, 2026
DALStarting goaliesPIT
DALOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)PITDALDefensePITDALTeamPITDAL5-on-5PITDALSpecial teamsPITDALRecent formPITDALHome and roadseason to datePITInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelPITDALKey injuriesPITAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Stars (2-2-0) visited the Penguins (2-2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Penguins scored 3.57 goals per game (3rd of 32) and allowed 3.27 (24th). The Stars earned 68.3% of available standings points (3rd) and the Penguins 59.8% (10th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Stars 50.8% (13th), Penguins 51.7% (8th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Stars 47.5% (27th), Penguins 50.2% (13th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Stars 55.9% (5th), Penguins 57.4% (3rd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Stars -177, Penguins +148) prices the Stars at 61% and the Penguins at 39%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Pittsburgh Penguins won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5): Pittsburgh Penguins covered.
- Combined score 3 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Pittsburgh Penguins closed at +148 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Dallas Stars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Stars 61%, Pittsburgh Penguins 39%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 1:57 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (0-1)Pittsburgh Penguins 43% → 71% (+27 pts)
- 3rd 19:30 — Dallas Stars goal (1-1)Dallas Stars 4% → 54% (+50 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Pittsburgh Penguins game-endPittsburgh Penguins 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Pittsburgh Penguins won after falling as low as 37% (1st 10:21).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 58% of G&W replays (Pittsburgh Penguins 42%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Stars | Goals | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.4 |
| 1.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.8 |
| 0.3 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 2.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.3 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.3 |
| 0.7 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -2.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.6 |
| +1.6 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jake Oettinger 19/20 · Arturs Silovs 24/25 | +2.1 |
How the margin was built, from Pittsburgh Penguins's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.
The line moved toward Dallas Stars before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Stars -1.5 (+154)
Stars -1.5 (+138)
Penguins +130 42%
Penguins +148 39%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Stars won 8 and the Penguins 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Stars 6, Penguins 3 Stars won | ||
| Dec 7, 2025 | Penguins 2, Stars 3 SO Stars won | Stars -180 favorite won | 6 under |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Penguins 5, Stars 3 Penguins won | Stars -275 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Nov 11, 2024 | Stars 7, Penguins 1 Stars won | Stars -165 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 22, 2024 | Penguins 2, Stars 4 Stars won | Stars -193 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Dallas Stars
- Dallas Stars team stats
- New Jersey Devils 5, Dallas Stars 1 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
Pittsburgh Penguins
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
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