Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames Final — October 10, 2026
ANAStarting goaliesCGY
ANAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CGYANADefenseCGYANATeamCGYANA5-on-5CGYANASpecial teamsCGYANARecent formCGYANAHome and roadseason to dateCGYInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
ANARest & travelCGYANAKey injuriesCGYAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 9:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Ducks (3-1-0) visited the Flames (0-4-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 10:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Ducks scored 3.33 goals per game (10th of 32) and allowed 3.51 (29th). The Flames scored 2.59 goals per game (32nd of 32) and allowed 3.16 (21st). The Ducks earned 56.1% of available standings points (15th) and the Flames 47.0% (29th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Ducks 50.5% (15th), Flames 47.2% (27th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Ducks 52.4% (6th), Flames 49.2% (17th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Ducks 47.6% (21st), Flames 46.9% (23rd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ducks -121, Flames +100) prices the Ducks at 52% and the Flames at 48%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2
Anaheim Ducks won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Calgary Flames +1.5): Anaheim Ducks covered.
- Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Anaheim Ducks closed at -121 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Calgary Flames 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Calgary Flames.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Anaheim Ducks 52%, Calgary Flames 48%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 19:15 — Anaheim Ducks goal (2-1)Anaheim Ducks 52% → 69% (+17 pts)
- 2nd 17:54 — Calgary Flames goal (2-2)Calgary Flames 25% → 49% (+24 pts)
- 3rd 5:35 — Anaheim Ducks goal (3-2)Anaheim Ducks 49% → 78% (+29 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Calgary Flames won 51% of G&W replays (Anaheim Ducks 49%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Ducks | Goals | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.4 |
| 0.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.2 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.6 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.6 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.7 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| +1.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.3 |
| +1.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ville Husso 27/29 · Dustin Wolf 24/28 | -1.4 |
How the margin was built, from Anaheim Ducks's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Anaheim Ducks closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ducks -1.5 (+188)
Ducks -1.5 (+195)
Flames +105 47%
Flames +100 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Ducks won 9 and the Flames 17.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Flames 5, Ducks 3 Flames won | ||
| Mar 26, 2026 | Ducks 3, Flames 2 OT Ducks won | ||
| Mar 1, 2026 | Flames 2, Ducks 3 SO Ducks won | Ducks -190 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Ducks 4, Flames 3 OT Ducks won | Ducks -115 favorite won | 6 over |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Flames 3, Ducks 4 OT Ducks won | Flames -160 underdog won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Anaheim Ducks
- Anaheim Ducks team stats
- Vancouver Canucks 6, Anaheim Ducks 5 (Oct 27)
- Anaheim Ducks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (Oct 24)
- Anaheim Ducks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 22)
Calgary Flames
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 10)
- Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 10)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 10)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1 (Oct 10)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 10)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Oct 10)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3 (Oct 10)
- Detroit Red Wings 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (Oct 10)
- Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (Oct 10)
- Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Oct 10)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St Louis Blues 5 (Oct 10)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 10)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
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