Detroit Red Wings vs Montréal Canadiens Final — October 10, 2026
DETStarting goaliesMTL
DETOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)MTLDETDefenseMTLDETTeamMTLDET5-on-5MTLDETSpecial teamsMTLDETRecent formMTLDETHome and roadseason to dateMTLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DETRest & travelMTLDETKey injuriesMTLAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Red Wings (1-3-0) visited the Canadiens (1-2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Red Wings scored 2.94 goals per game (22nd of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Canadiens scored 3.45 goals per game (6th of 32) and allowed 3.12 (18th). The Red Wings earned 56.1% of available standings points (15th) and the Canadiens 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Red Wings 48.6% (21st), Canadiens 48.8% (20th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Red Wings 48.8% (21st), Canadiens 48.6% (23rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Red Wings 48.5% (19th), Canadiens 46.4% (24th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Red Wings +156, Canadiens -190) prices the Red Wings at 37% and the Canadiens at 63%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Detroit Red Wings 0, Montréal Canadiens 1
Montréal Canadiens won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Montréal Canadiens -1.5): Detroit Red Wings covered.
- Combined score 1 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Montréal Canadiens closed at -190 on the moneyline (a 63% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Montréal Canadiens 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Detroit Red Wings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Detroit Red Wings 37%, Montréal Canadiens 63%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 17:40 — Montréal Canadiens penaltyDetroit Red Wings 42% → 46% (+4 pts)
- 3rd 14:05 — Detroit Red Wings penaltyMontréal Canadiens 55% → 62% (+6 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Montréal Canadiens game-endMontréal Canadiens 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 54% of G&W replays (Detroit Red Wings 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Red Wings | Goals | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.1 |
| 1.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.7 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.6 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.7 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| -3.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -3.5 |
| +3.5 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Daniil Tarasov 30/30 · Jacob Fowler 30/30 | +3.1 |
How the margin was built, from Montréal Canadiens's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Montréal Canadiens closed as the market favourite at 63% and won.
The line moved toward Detroit Red Wings before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Red Wings +1.5 (-135)
Red Wings +1.5 (-164)
Canadiens -225 66%
Canadiens -190 63%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Red Wings won 14 and the Canadiens 12.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Canadiens 1, Red Wings 3 Red Wings won | Canadiens -115 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Red Wings 4, Canadiens 0 Red Wings won | Canadiens -136 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Canadiens 5, Red Wings 1 Canadiens won | Red Wings -141 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Red Wings 1, Canadiens 4 Canadiens won | Canadiens -140 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Canadiens 2, Red Wings 4 Red Wings won | Red Wings -130 favorite won | 6 push |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Detroit Red Wings
- Detroit Red Wings team stats
- Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 26)
- Detroit Red Wings 1, Calgary Flames 4 (Oct 24)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 22)
Montréal Canadiens
- Montréal Canadiens team stats
- Montréal Canadiens 2, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 27)
- Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (Oct 25)
- Montréal Canadiens 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (Oct 23)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 10)
- Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 10)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 10)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1 (Oct 10)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 10)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Oct 10)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3 (Oct 10)
- Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (Oct 10)
- Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Oct 10)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St Louis Blues 5 (Oct 10)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 10)
- Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 10)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 10)
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