Edmonton Oilers vs San Jose Sharks Final — October 10, 2026
EDMStarting goaliesSJ
EDMOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)SJEDMDefenseSJEDMTeamSJEDM5-on-5SJEDMSpecial teamsSJEDMRecent formSJEDMHome and roadseason to dateSJInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
EDMRest & travelSJEDMKey injuriesSJAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Oilers (3-0-1) visited the Sharks (3-1-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 4:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Oilers scored 3.44 goals per game (7th of 32) and allowed 3.28 (25th). The Sharks scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.56 (30th). The Oilers earned 56.7% of available standings points (14th) and the Sharks 52.4% (22nd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Oilers 51.7% (9th), Sharks 47.4% (26th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Oilers 50.3% (12th), Sharks 46.9% (28th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Oilers 51.0% (14th), Sharks 54.7% (7th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Oilers -149, Sharks +125) prices the Oilers at 57% and the Sharks at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Edmonton Oilers won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (San Jose Sharks +1.5): Edmonton Oilers covered.
- Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Edmonton Oilers closed at -149 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
San Jose Sharks 1
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Edmonton Oilers 57%, San Jose Sharks 43%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 12:37 — Edmonton Oilers goal (1-0)Edmonton Oilers 57% → 72% (+16 pts)
- 3rd 3:13 — Edmonton Oilers goal (2-0)Edmonton Oilers 80% → 94% (+13 pts)
- 3rd 5:40 — Edmonton Oilers goal (3-0)Edmonton Oilers 95% → 99% (+4 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Edmonton Oilers won 88% of G&W replays (San Jose Sharks 12%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Edmonton Oilers. Here is where that came from.
| Oilers | Goals | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.0 |
| 1.6 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.0 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.9 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| -0.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.4 |
| +0.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Tristan Jarry 19/20 · Yaroslav Askarov 17/20 | +0.8 |
How the margin was built, from Edmonton Oilers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Edmonton Oilers closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Oilers -1.5 (+160)
Oilers -1.5 (+154)
Sharks +125 43%
Sharks +125 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 27 times since 2018-19: the Oilers won 19 and the Sharks 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Oilers 5, Sharks 2 Oilers won | ||
| Mar 17, 2026 | Sharks 3, Oilers 5 Oilers won | Oilers -165 favorite won | 7 over |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Oilers 4, Sharks 5 Sharks won | Oilers -162 underdog won | 7 over |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Sharks 3, Oilers 4 OT Oilers won | Oilers -192 favorite won | 7 push |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Oilers 3, Sharks 0 Oilers won | Oilers -225 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Edmonton Oilers
- Edmonton Oilers team stats
- Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers (Oct 28)
- Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 26)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
San Jose Sharks
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 10)
- Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 10)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1 (Oct 10)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 10)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Oct 10)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3 (Oct 10)
- Detroit Red Wings 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (Oct 10)
- Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (Oct 10)
- Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Oct 10)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St Louis Blues 5 (Oct 10)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 10)
- Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 10)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 10)
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