Nashville Predators vs Ottawa Senators Final — October 10, 2026
NSHStarting goaliesOTT
NSHOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)OTTNSHDefenseOTTNSHTeamOTTNSH5-on-5OTTNSHSpecial teamsOTTNSHRecent formOTTNSHHome and roadseason to dateOTTInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NSHRest & travelOTTNSHKey injuriesOTTAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Predators (2-1-1) visited the Senators (3-1-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Predators scored 3.01 goals per game (21st of 32) and allowed 3.28 (25th). The Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Predators earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Senators 60.4% (9th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Predators 48.5% (22nd), Senators 54.8% (3rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Predators 50.1% (14th), Senators 52.9% (5th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Predators 49.0% (16th), Senators 56.0% (4th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed at 5.5, down from 6 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Predators +144, Senators -170) prices the Predators at 39% and the Senators at 61%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Ottawa Senators won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Ottawa Senators -1.5): Nashville Predators covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Ottawa Senators closed at -170 on the moneyline (a 61% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Ottawa Senators 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Nashville Predators 39%, Ottawa Senators 61%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 18:37 — Ottawa Senators goal (2-2)Ottawa Senators 8% → 54% (+45 pts)
- OT 1:50 — Ottawa Senators blocked-shotNashville Predators 23% → 47% (+24 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Ottawa Senators game-endOttawa Senators 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Ottawa Senators won after falling as low as 8% (3rd 18:37).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Ottawa Senators won 66% of G&W replays (Nashville Predators 34%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Ottawa Senators. Here is where that came from.
| Predators | Goals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.2 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.9 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 1.3 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.1 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.6 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| +0.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.7 |
| +0.7 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Matt Murray 18/20 · Linus Ullmark 16/18 | -0.4 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 61% and won.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Predators +1.5 (-185)
Predators +1.5 (-185)
Senators -159 59%
Senators -170 61%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Predators won 8 and the Senators 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | Senators 3, Predators 5 Predators won | Senators -116 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Predators 4, Senators 1 Predators won | Senators -178 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Feb 3, 2025 | Senators 5, Predators 2 Senators won | Predators -135 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Predators 1, Senators 3 Senators won | Senators -125 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Senators 1, Predators 4 Predators won | Predators -147 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Nashville Predators
- Nashville Predators team stats
- New York Islanders 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 27)
- Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 6 (Oct 25)
- Nashville Predators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (Oct 24)
Ottawa Senators
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 10)
- Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 10)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 10)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1 (Oct 10)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 10)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Oct 10)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3 (Oct 10)
- Detroit Red Wings 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (Oct 10)
- Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Oct 10)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St Louis Blues 5 (Oct 10)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 10)
- Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 10)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 10)
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