Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Final — October 10, 2026
TBStarting goaliesNYI
TBOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)NYITBDefenseNYITBTeamNYITB5-on-5NYITBSpecial teamsNYITBRecent formNYITBHome and roadseason to dateNYIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
TBRest & travelNYITBKey injuriesNYIAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Lightning (3-1-0) visited the Islanders (2-2-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Islanders scored 2.84 goals per game (24th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Lightning earned 64.6% of available standings points (5th) and the Islanders 55.5% (19th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Lightning 54.2% (5th), Islanders 47.9% (24th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Lightning 53.3% (3rd), Islanders 49.0% (18th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Lightning 57.9% (2nd), Islanders 45.5% (26th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lightning -175, Islanders +146) prices the Lightning at 61% and the Islanders at 39%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3
Tampa Bay Lightning won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (New York Islanders +1.5): Tampa Bay Lightning covered.
- Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -175 on the moneyline (a 61% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
New York Islanders 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Tampa Bay Lightning.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Lightning 61%, New York Islanders 39%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 5:45 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (1-0)Tampa Bay Lightning 61% → 75% (+14 pts)
- 2nd 19:53 — New York Islanders goal (3-3)New York Islanders 20% → 45% (+25 pts)
- 3rd 18:16 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (4-3)Tampa Bay Lightning 54% → 95% (+41 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 59% of G&W replays (New York Islanders 41%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Lightning | Goals | Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.3 |
| 1.0 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.4 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.3 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.7 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.0 |
| +1.7 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +1.3 |
| -1.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Andrei Vasilevskiy 20/23 · Ilya Sorokin 21/25 | -1.7 |
| 1 | Empty-net goals | 0 |
How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 61% and won.
The line moved toward Tampa Bay Lightning before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Lightning -1.5 (+160)
Lightning -1.5 (+145)
Islanders +134 41%
Islanders +146 39%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Lightning won 12 and the Islanders 9.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Lightning 2, Islanders 3 SO Islanders won | Lightning -130 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Islanders 2, Lightning 0 Islanders won | Lightning -142 underdog won | 6 under |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Lightning 1, Islanders 2 Islanders won | Lightning -122 underdog won | 6 under |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Lightning 4, Islanders 1 Lightning won | Lightning -170 favorite won | 6 under |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Islanders 3, Lightning 5 Lightning won | Lightning -254 favorite won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning team stats
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 24)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 23)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 20)
New York Islanders
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 10)
- Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 10)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 10)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1 (Oct 10)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 10)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Oct 10)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3 (Oct 10)
- Detroit Red Wings 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (Oct 10)
- Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (Oct 10)
- Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Oct 10)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St Louis Blues 5 (Oct 10)
- Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 10)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 10)
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