Minnesota Wild vs Florida Panthers Final — October 10, 2026
MINStarting goaliesFLA
MINOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)FLAMINDefenseFLAMINTeamFLAMIN5-on-5FLAMINSpecial teamsFLAMINRecent formFLAMINHome and roadseason to dateFLAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelFLAMINKey injuriesFLAAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Wild (2-1-1) visited the Panthers (2-0-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 6:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Wild scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Panthers scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.37 (28th). The Wild earned 63.4% of available standings points (7th) and the Panthers 51.2% (25th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Wild 50.9% (12th), Panthers 50.2% (16th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Wild 48.2% (24th), Panthers 51.7% (9th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Wild 53.5% (10th), Panthers 48.3% (20th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed at 5.5, down from 6.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wild +115, Panthers -138) prices the Wild at 45% and the Panthers at 55%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1
Minnesota Wild won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Florida Panthers -1.5): Minnesota Wild covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Minnesota Wild closed at +115 on the moneyline (a 45% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Florida Panthers 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Florida Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Wild 45%, Florida Panthers 55%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 0:53 — Minnesota Wild goal (1-0)Minnesota Wild 45% → 60% (+15 pts)
- 2nd 2:18 — Florida Panthers goal (2-1)Florida Panthers 20% → 36% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 5:00 — Minnesota Wild goal (3-1)Minnesota Wild 65% → 81% (+16 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Minnesota Wild won 57% of G&W replays (Florida Panthers 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Wild | Goals | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 1.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.0 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.1 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| -0.5 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -2.0 |
| +2.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jesper Wallstedt 29/30 · Jacob Markstrom 25/28 | +0.5 |
| 1 | Empty-net goals | 0 |
How the margin was built, from Minnesota Wild's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Florida Panthers closed as the market favourite at 55% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wild +1.5 (-219)
Wild +1.5 (-235)
Panthers -133 55%
Panthers -138 55%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Wild won 6 and the Panthers 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Wild 3, Panthers 2 Wild won | ||
| Jan 24, 2026 | Panthers 4, Wild 3 OT Panthers won | Wild -129 underdog won | 6 over |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Panthers 6, Wild 1 Panthers won | Panthers -155 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Wild 5, Panthers 1 Wild won | Panthers -155 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Wild 6, Panthers 4 Wild won | Panthers -214 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Minnesota Wild
- Minnesota Wild team stats
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
Florida Panthers
More NHL games on October 10, 2026
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 10)
- Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 10)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 10)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 10)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Oct 10)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3 (Oct 10)
- Detroit Red Wings 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (Oct 10)
- Nashville Predators 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (Oct 10)
- Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Oct 10)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St Louis Blues 5 (Oct 10)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 10)
- Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 10)
- Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
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