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NHL · October 10, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche Final — October 10, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs

2-2-1

Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Confirmed

FINAL

Colorado Avalanche

3-1-0

Goalie Mackenzie Blackwood Confirmed

Saturday, October 10 · 7:10 PM ET

TORStarting goaliesCOL

This season

Starts

.906

Sv%

.895

.882

HDSv%

1.000

+1.6

GSAx

−1.0

Last season

Starts

.877

Sv%

.904

.799

HDSv%

.842

−18.1

GSAx

+6.8

TOROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)COL

16th3.09

GF/G

3.681st

21st6.90

PP GF/60

5.9130th

TORDefenseCOL

31st3.65

GA/G

2.481st

6th6.38

PK GA/60

5.551st

TORTeamCOL

28th47.6%

Pts%

73.8%1st

29th45.5%

xGF%

56.6%1st

32nd44.8%

CF%

56.7%2nd

28th45.2%

HDCF%

54.8%6th

TOR5-on-5COL

28th2.28

xGF/60

3.022nd

27th2.74

xGA/60

2.326th

8th10.3%

Sh%

9.8%13th

22nd90.0%

Sv%

92.2%1st

10th117.1

CF/60 (both)

122.71st

7th+0.20

GAx/G

+0.0912th

24th−0.11

GSAx/G

+0.373rd

10th10.9%

Sh%

10.0%21st

15th89.7%

Sv%

91.4%1st

31st40.5%

xGF% (L20)

57.4%3rd

TORSpecial teamsCOL

19th7.33

PP xG/60

7.0925th

25th73.3

PP FF/60

81.310th

31st4.1

PP min/G

5.41st

31st8.78

PK xGA/60

6.956th

19th4.8

PK min/G

4.820th

TORRecent formCOL

Lvs MTL 2-3Wvs NYI 2-1Lvs OTT 2-3Wvs NSH 5-4OTL@ VGK 3-4

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs LAK 8-4Wvs STL 6-1L@ WPG 2-3W@ CGY 7-3

Game by game

2-2-1

Record

3-1-0

2-2-1

Last 5

—

2-3

Over–under

3-1

TORHome and roadseason to dateCOL

2-2-0

Home record

2-0-0

0-0-1

Road record

1-1-0

1-3

Home O/U

2-0

1-0

Road O/U

1-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TORRest & travelCOL

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

608 mi979 km

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

TORKey injuriesCOL

John Tavares COutMax Domi CIR

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 10, 6:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Maple Leafs (2-2-1) visited the Avalanche (3-1-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Maple Leafs earned 47.6% of available standings points (28th) and the Avalanche 73.8% (1st).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th), Avalanche 56.6% (1st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd), Avalanche 56.7% (2nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th), Avalanche 54.8% (6th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maple Leafs +180, Avalanche -220) prices the Maple Leafs at 34% and the Avalanche at 66%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3

Toronto Maple Leafs won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Colorado Avalanche -1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Toronto Maple Leafs closed at +180 on the moneyline (a 34% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Colorado Avalanche 3

Decided

In regulation

Toronto Maple Leafs won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

34%Market at the close66%

Toronto Maple LeafsColorado Avalanche

37%Market at the open63%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Colorado Avalanche.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toronto Maple Leafs 34%, Colorado Avalanche 66%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 12:25 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-3)Colorado Avalanche 61% → 81% (+19 pts)
2nd 16:47 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (3-3)Toronto Maple Leafs 18% → 40% (+21 pts)
2nd 17:33 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (4-3)Toronto Maple Leafs 40% → 65% (+25 pts)

Toronto Maple Leafs won after falling as low as 16% (2nd 1:00).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

31%TOR

Share of G&W replays won

69%COL

2.6

Expected goals

4.0

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Colorado Avalanche won 69% of G&W replays (Toronto Maple Leafs 31%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Colorado Avalanche. Here is where that came from.

Maple Leafs	Goals	Avalanche
2.0	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.6
0.6	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.4
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
2.6	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	4.0
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.5
0.4	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.5
+2.4	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-1.5
+1.5	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Sergei Bobrovsky 30/33 · Mackenzie Blackwood 17/22	-2.4
1	Empty-net goals	0

Bar left: Maple Leafs gainedBar right: Avalanche gained

How the margin was built, from Toronto Maple Leafs's side:

Chances -1.9Finishing & goaltending +3.9Empty net +1Toronto Maple Leafs by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 66% and lost.

The line moved toward Colorado Avalanche before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenAvalanche -1.5 (+140)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-170)

CloseAvalanche -1.5 (+105)
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-130)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Close6.5 (o -130 / u +105)

Moneyline

OpenMaple Leafs +160 37%
Avalanche -192 63%

CloseMaple Leafs +180 34%
Avalanche -220 66%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Maple Leafs won 7 and the Avalanche 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 25, 2026	Avalanche 4, Maple Leafs 1 Avalanche won	Avalanche -175 favorite won	6.5 under
Jan 12, 2026	Maple Leafs 4, Avalanche 3 OT Maple Leafs won	Avalanche -238 underdog won	6.5 over
Mar 19, 2025	Avalanche 1, Maple Leafs 2 Maple Leafs won	Avalanche -130 underdog won	6 under
Mar 8, 2025	Maple Leafs 4, Avalanche 7 Avalanche won	Avalanche -155 favorite won	6.5 over
Feb 24, 2024	Maple Leafs 4, Avalanche 3 Maple Leafs won	Avalanche -121 underdog won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams