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NHL · October 17, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes vs Winnipeg Jets Final — October 17, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes

6-1-1

Goalie Pyotr Kochetkov Confirmed

FINAL

Winnipeg Jets

4-1-2

Goalie Clay Stevenson Confirmed

Saturday, October 17 · 3:40 PM ET

CARStarting goaliesWPG

This season

Starts

.911

Sv%

.875

1.000

HDSv%

.571

+1.5

GSAx

−0.5

Last season

Starts

.899

Sv%

.921

.647

HDSv%

.923

−1.3

GSAx

+3.7

CAROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)WPG

2nd3.61

GF/G

2.8225th

4th9.11

PP GF/60

6.4823rd

CARDefenseWPG

4th2.93

GA/G

3.1722nd

13th7.23

PK GA/60

7.9820th

CARTeamWPG

2nd68.9%

Pts%

50.0%26th

2nd56.4%

xGF%

47.5%25th

1st59.8%

CF%

48.8%22nd

8th53.7%

HDCF%

44.6%29th

CAR5-on-5WPG

1st3.06

xGF/60

2.2927th

7th2.37

xGA/60

2.5418th

24th8.9%

Sh%

9.3%20th

26th89.5%

Sv%

90.5%16th

13th116.5

CF/60 (both)

111.327th

21st−0.08

GAx/G

−0.0519th

19th−0.06

GSAx/G

−0.0921st

17th10.5%

Sh%

10.1%20th

26th88.6%

Sv%

89.3%21st

1st57.9%

xGF% (L20)

46.4%26th

CARSpecial teamsWPG

9th8.18

PP xG/60

7.0129th

4th83.8

PP FF/60

70.229th

18th4.7

PP min/G

4.717th

3rd6.47

PK xGA/60

7.329th

13th4.6

PK min/G

4.510th

CARRecent formWPG

W@ MTL 6-4Wvs VAN 7-2W@ CHI 5-2W@ PHI 4-1Wvs WSH 4-2

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ PIT 3-2Wvs COL 3-2Lvs ANA 1-5Wvs MIN 5-2OTL@ CHI 3-4

Game by game

6-1-1

Record

4-1-2

5-0-0

Last 5

3-1-1

4-4

Over–under

3-4

CARHome and roadseason to dateWPG

2-1-1

Home record

2-1-1

4-0-0

Road record

2-0-1

2-2

Home O/U

2-2

Road O/U

1-2

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

CARRest & travelWPG

4 days

Days of rest

2 days

1,341 mi2,159 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

CARKey injuriesWPG

Seth Jarvis CIRJordan Staal CIR

Players out or limited

Connor Hellebuyck GIRJosh Morrissey DOut

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 17, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Hurricanes (6-1-1) visited the Jets (4-1-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:40 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Hurricanes scored 3.61 goals per game (2nd of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Jets scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.17 (22nd). The Hurricanes earned 68.9% of available standings points (2nd) and the Jets 50.0% (26th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Hurricanes 56.4% (2nd), Jets 47.5% (25th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Hurricanes 59.8% (1st), Jets 48.8% (22nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Hurricanes 53.7% (8th), Jets 44.6% (29th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hurricanes -200, Jets +164) prices the Hurricanes at 64% and the Jets at 36%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 2

Carolina Hurricanes won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Winnipeg Jets +1.5): Winnipeg Jets covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Carolina Hurricanes closed at -200 on the moneyline (a 64% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 3
Winnipeg Jets 2

Decided

In regulation

Carolina Hurricanes won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

64%Market at the close36%

Carolina HurricanesWinnipeg Jets

60%Market at the open40%

From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Carolina Hurricanes.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Carolina Hurricanes 64%, Winnipeg Jets 36%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 8:19 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (1-1)Carolina Hurricanes 40% → 62% (+22 pts)
2nd 16:50 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (2-2)Carolina Hurricanes 34% → 59% (+25 pts)
3rd 6:43 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (3-2)Carolina Hurricanes 58% → 86% (+28 pts)

Carolina Hurricanes won after falling as low as 34% (2nd 16:50).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

64%CAR

Share of G&W replays won

36%WPG

3.5

Expected goals

2.4

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Carolina Hurricanes won 64% of G&W replays (Winnipeg Jets 36%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Carolina Hurricanes. Here is where that came from.

Hurricanes	Goals	Jets
2.5	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.8
0.6	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.2
0.4	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.4
3.5	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.4
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.2
0.6	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.8
-0.5	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-0.6
+0.6	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Pyotr Kochetkov 21/23 · Clay Stevenson 34/37	+0.5

Bar left: Hurricanes gainedBar right: Jets gained

How the margin was built, from Carolina Hurricanes's side:

Chances +0.9Finishing & goaltending +0.2Carolina Hurricanes by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 6.5 -1202.00uWIN +2.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Carolina Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 64% and won.

The line moved toward Carolina Hurricanes before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenJets +1.5 (-195)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+156)

CloseJets +1.5 (-160)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+129)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +112 / u -137)

Close6.5 (o +104 / u -130)

Moneyline

OpenHurricanes -170 60%
Jets +140 40%

CloseHurricanes -200 64%
Jets +164 36%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Hurricanes won 8 and the Jets 6.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 28, 2025	Jets 1, Hurricanes 5 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -205 favorite won	6.5 under
Nov 21, 2025	Hurricanes 4, Jets 3 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -160 favorite won	6.5 over
Mar 9, 2025	Jets 2, Hurricanes 4 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -126 favorite won	5.5 over
Feb 4, 2025	Hurricanes 0, Jets 3 Jets won	Hurricanes -155 underdog won	5.5 under
Mar 2, 2024	Jets 5, Hurricanes 3 Jets won	Hurricanes -160 underdog won	5.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams