Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers Final — October 17, 2026
OTTStarting goaliesPHI
OTTOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)PHIOTTDefensePHIOTTTeamPHIOTT5-on-5PHIOTTSpecial teamsPHIOTTRecent formPHIOTTHome and roadseason to datePHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelPHIOTTKey injuriesPHIAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 17, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Senators (6-2-0) visited the Flyers (0-6-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Senators earned 60.4% of available standings points (9th) and the Flyers 59.8% (10th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 54.8% (3rd), Flyers 51.0% (11th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 52.9% (5th), Flyers 47.7% (26th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 56.0% (4th), Flyers 53.7% (9th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Senators -162, Flyers +135) prices the Senators at 59% and the Flyers at 41%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Philadelphia Flyers won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Philadelphia Flyers +1.5): Philadelphia Flyers covered.
- Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Philadelphia Flyers closed at +135 on the moneyline (a 41% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Philadelphia Flyers 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ottawa Senators 59%, Philadelphia Flyers 41%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 5:55 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-0)Ottawa Senators 57% → 76% (+18 pts)
- 2nd 9:03 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (1-1)Philadelphia Flyers 24% → 43% (+19 pts)
- 2nd 18:33 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (1-2)Philadelphia Flyers 45% → 71% (+26 pts)
Philadelphia Flyers won after falling as low as 24% (2nd 9:03).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Ottawa Senators won 56% of G&W replays (Philadelphia Flyers 44%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Senators | Goals | Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 0.8 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.7 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.3 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.7 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.3 |
| -1.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.3 |
| +0.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Linus Ullmark 25/27 · Dan Vladar 25/26 | +1.8 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from Philadelphia Flyers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 59% and lost.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Senators -1.5 (+192)
Senators -1.5 (+170)
Flyers +110 46%
Flyers +135 41%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 14 and the Flyers 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Flyers 1, Senators 2 Senators won | Senators -180 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Senators 2, Flyers 1 OT Senators won | Senators -130 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Senators 3, Flyers 2 OT Senators won | Senators -123 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Flyers 1, Senators 2 Senators won | Senators -160 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Flyers 3, Senators 4 OT Senators won | Senators -210 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
Philadelphia Flyers
More NHL games on October 17, 2026
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- Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0 (Oct 17)
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- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 17)
- New York Islanders 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (Oct 17)
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