New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Final — October 17, 2026
NYIStarting goaliesTOR
NYIOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TORNYIDefenseTORNYITeamTORNYI5-on-5TORNYISpecial teamsTORNYIRecent formTORNYIHome and roadseason to dateTORInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYIRest & travelTORNYIKey injuriesTORAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 17, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Islanders (3-3-1) visited the Maple Leafs (3-3-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Islanders scored 2.84 goals per game (24th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Islanders earned 55.5% of available standings points (19th) and the Maple Leafs 47.6% (28th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Islanders 47.9% (24th), Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Islanders 49.0% (18th), Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Islanders 45.5% (26th), Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Islanders +110, Maple Leafs -130) prices the Islanders at 46% and the Maple Leafs at 54%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Islanders 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
New York Islanders won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5): New York Islanders covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- New York Islanders closed at +110 on the moneyline (a 46% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward New York Islanders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Islanders 46%, Toronto Maple Leafs 54%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 8:18 — New York Islanders goal (1-0)New York Islanders 46% → 62% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 18:33 — New York Islanders goal (2-0)New York Islanders 72% → 89% (+16 pts)
- 3rd 3:54 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (2-1)Toronto Maple Leafs 8% → 24% (+16 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Toronto Maple Leafs won 57% of G&W replays (New York Islanders 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Islanders | Goals | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.0 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.0 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.5 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.7 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| +1.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -2.2 |
| +2.2 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ilya Sorokin 28/29 · Sergei Bobrovsky 16/19 | -1.0 |
| 1 | Empty-net goals | 0 |
How the margin was built, from New York Islanders's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Toronto Maple Leafs closed as the market favourite at 54% and lost.
The line moved toward New York Islanders before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Islanders +1.5 (-219)
Islanders +1.5 (-227)
Maple Leafs -143 56%
Maple Leafs -130 54%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Islanders won 12 and the Maple Leafs 9.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Islanders 1, Maple Leafs 2 Maple Leafs won | Maple Leafs -140 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Maple Leafs 3, Islanders 5 Islanders won | ||
| Mar 17, 2026 | Islanders 3, Maple Leafs 1 Islanders won | Islanders -160 favorite won | 6 under |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Maple Leafs 3, Islanders 4 OT Islanders won | Maple Leafs -115 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 2, 2025 | Maple Leafs 2, Islanders 1 Maple Leafs won | Maple Leafs -113 favorite won | 6 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
New York Islanders
- New York Islanders team stats
- New York Islanders 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs team stats
- Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken (Oct 28)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5 (Oct 26)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 17, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 17)
- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (Oct 17)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Oct 17)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Florida Panthers 8 (Oct 17)
- Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0 (Oct 17)
- New York Rangers 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 17)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 17)
- Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (Oct 17)
- St Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 5 (Oct 17)
- Boston Bruins 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 17)
- Edmonton Oilers 6, Utah Mammoth 2 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 17)
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