San Jose Sharks vs Detroit Red Wings Final — October 17, 2026
SJStarting goaliesDET
SJOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DETSJDefenseDETSJTeamDETSJ5-on-5DETSJSpecial teamsDETSJRecent formDETSJHome and roadseason to dateDETInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SJRest & travelDETSJKey injuriesDETAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 17, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sharks (4-3-0) visited the Red Wings (2-3-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Sharks scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.56 (30th). The Red Wings scored 2.94 goals per game (22nd of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Sharks earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Red Wings 56.1% (15th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sharks 47.4% (26th), Red Wings 48.6% (21st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sharks 46.9% (28th), Red Wings 48.8% (21st). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sharks 54.7% (7th), Red Wings 48.5% (19th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sharks +120, Red Wings -145) prices the Sharks at 43% and the Red Wings at 57%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Jose Sharks 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Detroit Red Wings won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Detroit Red Wings -1.5): San Jose Sharks covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Detroit Red Wings closed at -145 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Detroit Red Wings 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Detroit Red Wings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Jose Sharks 43%, Detroit Red Wings 57%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 18:27 — Detroit Red Wings goal (3-3)Detroit Red Wings 8% → 52% (+44 pts)
- OT 2:32 — San Jose Sharks faceoffSan Jose Sharks 49% → 70% (+21 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Detroit Red Wings game-endDetroit Red Wings 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Detroit Red Wings won after falling as low as 7% (3rd 18:17).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, San Jose Sharks won 61% of G&W replays (Detroit Red Wings 39%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured San Jose Sharks. Here is where that came from.
| Sharks | Goals | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.7 |
| 1.5 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.7 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.2 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.4 |
| 0.8 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.5 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| -1.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.0 |
| -0.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Alex Nedeljkovic 24/27 · John Gibson 31/34 | +1.0 |
How the margin was built, from Detroit Red Wings's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Detroit Red Wings closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sharks +1.5 (-219)
Sharks +1.5 (-207)
Red Wings -141 56%
Red Wings -145 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Sharks won 6 and the Red Wings 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Sharks 2, Red Wings 4 Red Wings won | Red Wings -170 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Red Wings 3, Sharks 2 SO Red Wings won | Red Wings -200 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Sharks 6, Red Wings 3 Sharks won | Red Wings -190 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Red Wings 4, Sharks 5 OT Sharks won | Red Wings -155 underdog won | 6 over |
| Jan 2, 2024 | Red Wings 5, Sharks 3 Red Wings won | Red Wings -194 favorite won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
San Jose Sharks
- San Jose Sharks team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
Detroit Red Wings
- Detroit Red Wings team stats
- Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 26)
- Detroit Red Wings 1, Calgary Flames 4 (Oct 24)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 17, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 17)
- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (Oct 17)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Oct 17)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Florida Panthers 8 (Oct 17)
- Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0 (Oct 17)
- New York Rangers 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 17)
- Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (Oct 17)
- New York Islanders 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (Oct 17)
- St Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 5 (Oct 17)
- Boston Bruins 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 17)
- Edmonton Oilers 6, Utah Mammoth 2 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 17)
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