Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Packers (1-2) visit the Buccaneers (0-3) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Packers have the 26th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 22nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have the 32nd-ranked offense and the 7th-ranked defense. When the Packers have the ball, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.122 EPA per play) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.083 allowed); when the Buccaneers have it, a 32nd-ranked offense (−0.193) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (+0.066 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Packers offense is at 37.2% (29th) and the Buccaneers offense at 36.7% (30th). Through the air, the Packers average −0.017 EPA per dropback (20th) against a Buccaneers pass defense ranked 12th; the Buccaneers average −0.250 (31st) against a Packers pass defense ranked 25th. The Packers score 18.7 points per game (22nd) and allow 30.3 (29th); the Buccaneers score 20.7 (19th) and allow 26.3 (23rd).
Baker Mayfield has a 38.7% success rate (30th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jordan Love's 38.1% (31st). Per dropback, Mayfield is at −0.256 EPA to Love's −0.017, with 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Love's 6 and 2.
The Packers are 1-2 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 35-14 loss to the Falcons. The Buccaneers are 0-3 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 23-16 loss to the Vikings.
The Packers are 3.5-point road favorites, with the Buccaneers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Packers -3. The total is 38.5, down from 41.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Packers -190, Buccaneers +155) prices the Packers at 63% and the Buccaneers at 37%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Packers2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks132
- Success rate38.1%31st
- EPA per dropback−0.01724th
- Completion %52.4%33rd
- CPOE−10.132nd
- Yards per attempt6.823rd
- TD–INT6–2
- Sack rate6.1%18th
- Dropbacks118
- Success rate38.7%30th
- EPA per dropback−0.25632nd
- Completion %63.5%21st
- CPOE+0.322nd
- Yards per attempt6.426th
- TD–INT2–2
- Sack rate11.0%33rd
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Matthew Golden leads the Packers wide receivers with 253 receiving yards (7th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.0%. MarShawn Lloyd has 68 rushing yards on 23 carries (41st of 44 qualified running backs). Emeka Egbuka leads the Buccaneers wide receivers with 141 receiving yards (35th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.1%. Bucky Irving has 180 rushing yards on 40 carries (16th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries23
- Rush yards6841st
- Yards per carry3.039th
- EPA per rush−0.42243rd
- Rush success rate39.1%25th
- Targets / catches30 / 15
- Receiving yards2537th
- Target share25.0%18th
- Yards per target8.440th
- EPA per target+0.22249th
- Targets / catches17 / 9
- Receiving yards10617th
- Target share14.2%19th
- Yards per target6.225th
- EPA per target−0.02427th
- Carries40
- Rush yards18016th
- Yards per carry4.516th
- EPA per rush+0.01711th
- Rush success rate35.0%32nd
- Targets / catches20 / 13
- Receiving yards14135th
- Target share21.1%37th
- Yards per target7.055th
- EPA per target+0.12755th
- Targets / catches17 / 11
- Receiving yards12012th
- Target share17.9%12th
- Yards per target7.119th
- EPA per target+0.11824th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Packers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePackers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 39.9%26th | 37.6%5th |
| Early-down success rateBuccaneers offense vs Packers defense | 40.9%9th | 37.4%29th |
| Early-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.03720th | −0.02812th |
| Early-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Packers defense | −0.1042nd | −0.14530th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePackers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 27.8%32nd | 34.9%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuccaneers offense vs Packers defense | 51.2%29th | 32.6%28th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.31828th | −0.22210th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Packers defense | +0.67930th | −0.25325th |
| Red-zone TD ratePackers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 45.5%26th | 37.5%5th |
| Red-zone TD rateBuccaneers offense vs Packers defense | 76.9%26th | 30.0%31st |
| Red-zone success ratePackers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 37.9%23rd | 42.9%14th |
| Red-zone success rateBuccaneers offense vs Packers defense | 61.8%32nd | 38.5%21st |
On early downs the Packers succeed on 39.9% of plays (26th) against a Buccaneers defense that allows 37.6% (5th); on 3rd down they convert 27.8% (32nd) against a defense allowing 34.9% (8th). On early downs the Buccaneers succeed on 37.4% of plays (29th) against a Packers defense that allows 40.9% (9th); on 3rd down they convert 32.6% (28th) against a defense allowing 51.2% (29th). The Packers score touchdowns on 45.5% of red-zone trips (26th). The Buccaneers score touchdowns on 30.0% of red-zone trips (31st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Packers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt LaFleur | Todd Bowles |
| Offensive coordinator | Adam Stenavich | Zac Robinson |
| Defensive coordinator | Jonathan Gannon | — |
| Offense tendencies | Packers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 2.5%6th-highest | −0.6%12th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 73.3%1st-highest | 68.9%2nd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 66.7%1st-highest | 61.8%6th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 67.8%8th-highest | 66.7%12th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 11.1%4th-highest | 10.2%6th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.324th-slowest | 32.421st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 14.5%18th | 9.2%30th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.7%10th | 7.3%26th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 8.5%18th | 7.3%22nd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.1%17th | 10.7%32nd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 2.22%20th | 3.96%30th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 60.015th-most | 59.019th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Defense | Packers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.7%13th | 5.7%21st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 14.6%14th | 14.0%12th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 5.2%7th | 8.0%13th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 9.0%17th | 7.8%11th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.03%29th | 1.18%22nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.6%21st | 13.2%23rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 23.5%32nd | 17.2%23rd |
The Packers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (2.5% pass rate over expected, 6th-highest), while the Buccaneers sit at −0.6% (12th-highest). In neutral situations the Packers take 32.3 seconds between snaps and the Buccaneers 32.4, so the Packers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Packers have gone for it 3 of 4 times and the Buccaneers 1 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Packers have 10 days between games and the Buccaneers 7. The Packers travel about 1,182 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour ahead.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
PackersBuccaneersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Packers won 2 and the Buccaneers 3. In the most recent meeting (December 17, 2023), the Buccaneers won 34-20; the Packers averaged +0.032 EPA per play; the Buccaneers averaged +0.364 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2023 | Buccaneers 34, Packers 20 Buccaneers won | Packers -4 Buccaneers covered | 41.5 over | Packers +0.032 · Buccaneers +0.364 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Packers 14, Buccaneers 12 Packers won | Buccaneers -1 Packers covered | 41.5 under | Packers −0.100 · Buccaneers −0.204 |
| Jan 24, 2021 playoffs | Buccaneers 31, Packers 26 Buccaneers won | Packers -3 Buccaneers covered | 53 over | Packers +0.039 · Buccaneers +0.108 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | Packers 10, Buccaneers 38 Buccaneers won | Packers -3 Buccaneers covered | 55 under | Packers −0.299 · Buccaneers +0.122 |
| Dec 3, 2017 | Buccaneers 20, Packers 26 Packers won | Packers -3 Packers covered | 45 over | Packers +0.053 · Buccaneers +0.012 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Packers -3 (-118)
Packers -3.5 (-110)
Buccaneers +141 40%
Buccaneers +155 37%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Packers -3.5+106Novig
- Buccaneers +3.5-108DraftKings
- Over 38-115ProphetX
- Under 38.5+106Novig
- Packers-170Novig
- Buccaneers+166ProphetX
Dig deeper
Teams
Green Bay Packers
- Green Bay Packers team stats
- Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14 (Sep 24)
- Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 (Sep 13)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
More NFL games on October 4, 2026
- Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (Oct 4)
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (Oct 4)
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Oct 4)
- New York Jets at Chicago Bears (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (Oct 4)
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (Oct 4)
- Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Oct 4)
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Oct 4)
- Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (Oct 4)
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results