Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Final — October 18, 2026
TENStarting quarterbacksexpected startersIND
TENOffense2026 regular season to dateINDTENDefenseINDTENRecent formINDTENHome and roadseason to dateINDInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
TENRest & travelINDTENKey injuriesINDAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Titans (0-5) visited the Colts (2-3) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 6.
The Titans have the 31st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 25th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Colts have the 22nd-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense. When the Titans have the ball, a 31st-ranked offense (−0.149 EPA per play) meets a 27th-ranked defense (+0.099 allowed); when the Colts have it, a 22nd-ranked offense (−0.051) meets a 25th-ranked defense (+0.078 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Titans offense is at 40.5% (25th) and the Colts offense at 42.2% (19th). Through the air, the Titans average −0.179 EPA per dropback (31st) against a Colts pass defense ranked 23rd; the Colts average −0.157 (30th) against a Titans pass defense ranked 27th. The Titans score 11.6 points per game (32nd) and allow 21.8 (10th); the Colts score 24.8 (11th) and allow 27.6 (27th).
Cam Ward has a 42.5% success rate (24th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Daniel Jones' 42.4% (25th). Per dropback, Ward is at −0.186 EPA to Jones' −0.157, with 3 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Jones' 3 and 4.
The Titans are 0-5 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 26-3 loss to the Texans. The Colts are 2-3 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
The Colts closed as 6.5-point favorites at home against the Titans. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 43.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Titans +240, Colts -296) prices the Titans at 28% and the Colts at 72%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20
Tennessee Titans won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Indianapolis Colts -6.5): Tennessee Titans covered.
- Combined score 46 vs the closing total of 43.5: Over.
- Tennessee Titans closed at +240 on the moneyline (a 28% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Tennessee Titans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tennessee Titans 28%, Indianapolis Colts 72%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 10:25 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 4th & 12 at IND 378-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, UnsportsTennessee Titans 42% → 70% (+28 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:26 — Tennessee Titans ball, 1st & 10 at TEN 171-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced atTennessee Titans 46% → 60% (+14 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:30 — Tennessee Titans ball, 3rd & 5 at IND 42(Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 4-W.Robinson to IND 36 for 6 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).Tennessee Titans 55% → 67% (+12 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:45 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 3rd & 10 at IND 38(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 31 for -7 yards (11-J.Johnson).Tennessee Titans 68% → 81% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:07 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 4th & 17 at IND 31(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).Tennessee Titans 81% → 94% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Tennessee Titans won after falling as low as 5% (Q3 7:07).
Game DNA
| Titans | Points added | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7 | Passingdropbacks | -4.9 |
| -5.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.7 |
| +5.3 | Explosive plays3 plays · 10 plays | +13.7 |
| -4.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -14.2 |
| +2.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -7.1 |
| +2.0 | Penalties8 for 54 yds · 5 for 61 yds | +2.2 |
| +0.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 4 | +1.0 |
| -2.3 | All plays | -12.9 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 10.2 points to Tennessee Titans. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Indianapolis Colts closed as the market favourite at 72% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Titans +6.5 (-105)
Titans +6.5 (-114)
Colts -315 73%
Colts -296 72%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Carnell Tate has 274 receiving yards for the Titans (22nd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.9%. Tony Pollard has 273 rushing yards on 68 carries (19th of 41 qualified running backs). Josh Downs has 249 receiving yards for the Colts (30th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.5%. Jonathan Taylor has 394 rushing yards on 100 carries (9th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries68
- Rush yards27319th
- Yards per carry4.021st
- EPA per rush−0.06522nd
- Rush success rate38.2%24th
- Targets / catches37 / 23
- Receiving yards27422nd
- Target share25.9%15th
- Yards per target7.455th
- EPA per target+0.06063rd
- Targets / catches13 / 9
- Receiving yards6036th
- Target share9.1%35th
- Yards per target4.636th
- EPA per target−0.26632nd
- Carries100
- Rush yards3949th
- Yards per carry3.923rd
- EPA per rush+0.02912th
- Rush success rate41.0%19th
- Targets / catches34 / 20
- Receiving yards24930th
- Target share20.5%34th
- Yards per target7.356th
- EPA per target+0.34439th
- Targets / catches36 / 30
- Receiving yards21312th
- Target share21.7%5th
- Yards per target5.926th
- EPA per target+0.22722nd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Titans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTitans offense vs Colts defense | 39.9%26th | 47.0%29th |
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Titans defense | 42.7%15th | 41.3%21st |
| Early-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Colts defense | −0.15931st | +0.14631st |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Titans defense | +0.08826th | −0.07525th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTitans offense vs Colts defense | 35.6%25th | 31.0%4th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Titans defense | 39.1%15th | 35.8%24th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTitans offense vs Colts defense | −0.07615th | +0.00419th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Titans defense | −0.10914th | −0.12523rd |
| Red-zone TD rateTitans offense vs Colts defense | 46.2%29th | 62.5%16th |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Titans defense | 62.5%16th | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateTitans offense vs Colts defense | 38.6%21st | 41.5%15th |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Titans defense | 45.2%22nd | 43.8%13th |
On early downs the Titans succeed on 39.9% of plays (26th) against a Colts defense that allows 47.0% (29th); on 3rd down they convert 35.6% (25th) against a defense allowing 31.0% (4th). On early downs the Colts succeed on 41.3% of plays (21st) against a Titans defense that allows 42.7% (15th); on 3rd down they convert 35.8% (24th) against a defense allowing 39.1% (15th). The Titans score touchdowns on 46.2% of red-zone trips (29th). The Colts score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Titans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Robert Saleh | Shane Steichen |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Daboll | Jim Bob Cooter |
| Defensive coordinator | Gus Bradley | Lou Anarumo |
| Offense tendencies | Titans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −6.7%29th-highest | −2.6%16th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 64.6%10th-highest | 59.1%20th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 59.1%9th-highest | 55.4%13th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 71.8%3rd-highest | 61.3%15th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 15.0%2nd-highest | 3.8%25th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 30.929th-slowest | 32.917th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 10.2%29th | 10.6%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 6.6%28th | 7.8%22nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 8.2%21st | 12.3%7th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.7%14th | 4.8%8th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 1.82%17th | 2.50%23rd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 54.631st-most | 64.08th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Defense | Titans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.1%15th | 5.4%20th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 18.3%27th | 17.7%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 9.8%24th | 9.1%19th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 8.3%9th | 9.4%17th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 0.65%32nd | 0.66%30th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.3%26th | 13.5%23rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.6%6th | 14.8%13th |
The Titans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−6.7% pass rate over expected, 29th-highest), while the Colts sit at −2.6% (16th-highest). In neutral situations the Titans take 30.9 seconds between snaps and the Colts 32.9, so the Titans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Titans have gone for it 2 of 2 times and the Colts 7 of 11.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Titans won 8 and the Colts 14. In the most recent meeting (October 26, 2025), the Colts won 38-14; the Colts averaged +0.382 EPA per play; the Titans averaged −0.087 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | Titans 14, Colts 38 Colts won | Colts -15.5 Colts covered | 47.5 over | Colts +0.382 · Titans −0.087 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Colts 41, Titans 20 Colts won | Colts -6 Colts covered | 43.5 over | Colts +0.394 · Titans −0.172 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Titans 30, Colts 38 Colts won | Colts -4 Colts covered | 42.5 over | Colts +0.218 · Titans +0.072 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Colts 20, Titans 17 Colts won | Titans -2.5 Colts covered | 42 under | Colts −0.095 · Titans −0.026 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Colts 31, Titans 28 Colts won | Colts -1.5 Colts covered | 42 over | Colts −0.011 · Titans +0.031 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Tennessee Titans
- Tennessee Titans team stats
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (Nov 1)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
Indianapolis Colts
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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