Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Cowboys (1-2) visit the Texans (0-3) at NRG Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Cowboys have the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 32nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Texans have the 24th-ranked offense and the 15th-ranked defense. When the Cowboys have the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.175 EPA per play) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.008 allowed); when the Texans have it, a 24th-ranked offense (−0.092) meets a 32nd-ranked defense (+0.191 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cowboys offense is at 49.4% (7th) and the Texans offense at 40.0% (25th). Through the air, the Cowboys average +0.302 EPA per dropback (4th) against a Texans pass defense ranked 19th; the Texans average −0.030 (21st) against a Cowboys pass defense ranked 31st. The Cowboys score 29.3 points per game (7th) and allow 27.3 (25th); the Texans score 18.0 (24th) and allow 25.0 (19th).
Dak Prescott has a 53.4% success rate (4th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to C.J. Stroud's 44.4% (21st). Per dropback, Prescott is at +0.295 EPA to Stroud's −0.006, with 7 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Stroud's 3 and 0.
The Cowboys are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 34-31 loss to the Ravens. The Texans are 0-3 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 19-17 loss to the Colts.
The Texans are 3-point favorites at home against the Cowboys. The spread opened at Texans -2. The total is 48, up from 47 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Cowboys +135, Texans -159) prices the Cowboys at 41% and the Texans at 59%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Cowboys2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks117
- Success rate53.4%4th
- EPA per dropback+0.2956th
- Completion %69.5%8th
- CPOE+6.36th
- Yards per attempt7.022nd
- TD–INT7–1
- Sack rate2.6%4th
- Dropbacks133
- Success rate44.4%21st
- EPA per dropback−0.00622nd
- Completion %61.0%24th
- CPOE−2.728th
- Yards per attempt6.724th
- TD–INT3–0
- Sack rate7.5%23rd
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
CeeDee Lamb leads the Cowboys wide receivers with 309 receiving yards (4th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.8%. Javonte Williams has 169 rushing yards on 43 carries (21st of 44 qualified running backs). Xavier Hutchinson leads the Texans wide receivers with 120 receiving yards (45th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.8%. David Montgomery has 103 rushing yards on 37 carries (36th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries43
- Rush yards16921st
- Yards per carry3.924th
- EPA per rush−0.07623rd
- Rush success rate44.2%15th
- Targets / catches25 / 20
- Receiving yards3094th
- Target share24.8%20th
- Yards per target12.46th
- EPA per target+1.0796th
- Targets / catches11 / 9
- Receiving yards7225th
- Target share10.9%29th
- Yards per target6.523rd
- EPA per target+0.14723rd
- Carries37
- Rush yards10336th
- Yards per carry2.843rd
- EPA per rush−0.33841st
- Rush success rate27.0%41st
- Targets / catches21 / 9
- Receiving yards12045th
- Target share18.8%43rd
- Yards per target5.768th
- EPA per target−0.03264th
- Targets / catches25 / 19
- Receiving yards2054th
- Target share22.3%6th
- Yards per target8.211th
- EPA per target+0.16022nd
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 47.1%8th | 35.5%3rd |
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 52.9%32nd | 40.3%24th |
| Early-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Texans defense | +0.1446th | −0.0695th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.21032nd | +0.01314th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 57.1%2nd | 38.5%12th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 60.6%32nd | 36.4%23rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Texans defense | +0.2676th | +0.24025th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.35128th | −0.15723rd |
| Red-zone TD rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 69.2%8th | 42.9%8th |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 71.4%22nd | 50.0%22nd |
| Red-zone success rateCowboys offense vs Texans defense | 41.7%17th | 25.0%3rd |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Cowboys defense | 48.8%26th | 32.1%28th |
On early downs the Cowboys succeed on 47.1% of plays (8th) against a Texans defense that allows 35.5% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 57.1% (2nd) against a defense allowing 38.5% (12th). On early downs the Texans succeed on 40.3% of plays (24th) against a Cowboys defense that allows 52.9% (32nd); on 3rd down they convert 36.4% (23rd) against a defense allowing 60.6% (32nd). The Cowboys score touchdowns on 69.2% of red-zone trips (8th). The Texans score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (22nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brian Schottenheimer | DeMeco Ryans |
| Offensive coordinator | Klayton Adams | Nick Caley |
| Defensive coordinator | Christian Parker | Matt Burke |
| Offense tendencies | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 4.6%2nd-highest | −2.1%18th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 66.3%6th-highest | 67.0%5th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 61.4%7th-highest | 64.4%2nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 64.4%14th-highest | 68.0%7th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 5.1%16th-highest | 8.0%10th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.225th-slowest | 32.027th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 11.4%28th | 18.5%7th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 4.4%30th | 8.9%17th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 6.7%23rd | 6.1%27th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 2.5%2nd | 7.5%21st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 1.12%9th | 1.00%7th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 59.019th-most | 66.73rd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 |
| Defense | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 2.1%30th | 10.0%2nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 17.9%23rd | 26.5%32nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 8.4%14th | 14.3%31st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 12.0%28th | 7.2%8th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.05%26th | 1.66%18th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.4%26th | 17.4%9th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.7%8th | 16.4%19th |
The Cowboys pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (4.6% pass rate over expected, 2nd-highest), while the Texans sit at −2.1% (18th-highest). In neutral situations the Cowboys take 32.2 seconds between snaps and the Texans 32.0, so the Texans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Cowboys have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Texans 5 of 8.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Cowboys have 7 days between games and the Texans 7. The Cowboys travel about 234 miles. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
CowboysTexansLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Cowboys won 1 and the Texans 2. In the most recent meeting (November 18, 2024), the Texans won 34-10; the Cowboys averaged −0.305 EPA per play; the Texans averaged +0.194 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | Texans 34, Cowboys 10 Texans won | Texans -7.5 Texans covered | 41.5 over | Cowboys −0.305 · Texans +0.194 |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Texans 23, Cowboys 27 Cowboys won | Cowboys -17 Texans covered | 44.5 over | Cowboys −0.024 · Texans −0.186 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | Cowboys 16, Texans 19 Texans won | Texans -3.5 Cowboys covered | 45 under | Cowboys −0.149 · Texans −0.134 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Cowboys +2 (-110)
Cowboys +3 (-110)
Texans -130 54%
Texans -159 59%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Cowboys +3.5-120Novig
- Texans -3-105ESPN BET
- Over 48-108BetMGM
- Under 48.5+100ESPN BET
- Cowboys+144Polymarket
- Texans-150ESPN BET
Dig deeper
Teams
Dallas Cowboys
- Dallas Cowboys team stats
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- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
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Houston Texans
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