Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Cardinals (1-2) visit the Giants (2-1) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Cardinals have the 13th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 28th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Giants have the 18th-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense. When the Cardinals have the ball, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.042 EPA per play) meets a 27th-ranked defense (+0.117 allowed); when the Giants have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.035) meets a 28th-ranked defense (+0.123 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cardinals offense is at 46.9% (8th) and the Giants offense at 42.9% (17th). Through the air, the Cardinals average +0.111 EPA per dropback (15th) against a Giants pass defense ranked 27th; the Giants average −0.003 (19th) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 30th. The Cardinals score 21.0 points per game (18th) and allow 27.0 (24th); the Giants score 15.3 (28th) and allow 18.3 (9th).
Jacoby Brissett has a 49.6% success rate (10th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jameis Winston's 31.6% (34th). Per dropback, Brissett is at +0.111 EPA to Winston's −0.385, with 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Winston's 0 and 1.
The Cardinals are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 36-30 loss to the 49ers. The Giants are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 12-7 win over the Titans.
The Cardinals are 2.5-point road favorites, with the Giants getting the points at home. The spread opened with Giants favored by 2. The total is 44.5, up from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Cardinals -137, Giants +116) prices the Cardinals at 56% and the Giants at 44%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Cardinals2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks123
- Success rate49.6%10th
- EPA per dropback+0.11115th
- Completion %70.7%6th
- CPOE+3.814th
- Yards per attempt5.632nd
- TD–INT4–1
- Sack rate4.1%8th
- Dropbacks55
- Success rate31.6%34th
- EPA per dropback−0.38533rd
- Completion %51.0%34th
- CPOE−16.334th
- Yards per attempt4.734th
- TD–INT0–1
- Sack rate9.1%30th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Michael Wilson leads the Cardinals wide receivers with 163 receiving yards (27th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.4%. Jeremiyah Love has 160 rushing yards on 41 carries (24th of 44 qualified running backs). Malik Nabers leads the Giants wide receivers with 96 receiving yards (60th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.2%. Cam Skattebo has 177 rushing yards on 50 carries (18th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries41
- Rush yards16024th
- Yards per carry3.927th
- EPA per rush−0.01015th
- Rush success rate46.3%10th
- Targets / catches31 / 18
- Receiving yards16327th
- Target share27.4%8th
- Yards per target5.372nd
- EPA per target+0.09158th
- Targets / catches34 / 26
- Receiving yards2113rd
- Target share30.1%2nd
- Yards per target6.227th
- EPA per target+0.41712th
- Carries50
- Rush yards17718th
- Yards per carry3.532nd
- EPA per rush−0.16229th
- Rush success rate34.0%33rd
- Targets / catches19 / 12
- Receiving yards9660th
- Target share23.2%29th
- Yards per target5.174th
- EPA per target−0.26577th
- Targets / catches23 / 15
- Receiving yards12410th
- Target share28.0%3rd
- Yards per target5.432nd
- EPA per target+0.41513th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 46.0%10th | 45.5%20th |
| Early-down success rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 46.2%24th | 42.0%20th |
| Early-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Giants defense | +0.04512th | +0.06725th |
| Early-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | +0.05023rd | +0.00216th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 41.9%13th | 56.2%30th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 44.8%23rd | 43.2%11th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Giants defense | −0.14422nd | +0.42429th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | +0.81632nd | −0.13320th |
| Red-zone TD rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 54.5%20th | 77.8%27th |
| Red-zone TD rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 72.7%24th | 50.0%22nd |
| Red-zone success rateCardinals offense vs Giants defense | 36.1%24th | 40.0%12th |
| Red-zone success rateGiants offense vs Cardinals defense | 37.5%11th | 43.5%12th |
On early downs the Cardinals succeed on 46.0% of plays (10th) against a Giants defense that allows 45.5% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 41.9% (13th) against a defense allowing 56.2% (30th). On early downs the Giants succeed on 42.0% of plays (20th) against a Cardinals defense that allows 46.2% (24th); on 3rd down they convert 43.2% (11th) against a defense allowing 44.8% (23rd). The Cardinals score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th). The Giants score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (22nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike LaFleur | John Harbaugh |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathaniel Hackett | Matt Nagy |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Rallis | Dennard Wilson |
| Offense tendencies | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 0.5%10th-highest | −9.0%30th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 62.8%11th-highest | 52.5%29th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 57.3%11th-highest | 45.7%30th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 54.6%19th-highest | 54.2%21st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 8.7%7th-highest | 4.5%18th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.514th-slowest | 36.51st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 6.8%32nd | 14.0%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 1.7%32nd | 2.3%31st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 4.1%32nd | 8.3%19th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 4.1%6th | 7.5%23rd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.51%3rd | 1.13%10th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 65.36th-most | 59.019th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Defense | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 4.4%24th | 1.0%31st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 19.8%27th | 13.6%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.6%27th | 5.8%9th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.7%26th | 13.1%30th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.80%15th | 2.42%10th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.1%28th | 6.7%32nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.8%9th | 19.4%29th |
The Cardinals pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (0.5% pass rate over expected, 10th-highest), while the Giants sit at −9.0% (30th-highest). In neutral situations the Cardinals take 33.5 seconds between snaps and the Giants 36.5, so the Cardinals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Cardinals have gone for it 3 of 7 times and the Giants 1 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Cardinals have 7 days between games and the Giants 7. The Cardinals travel about 2,144 miles, moving their body clock 3 hours ahead. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
CardinalsGiantsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Cardinals won 3 and the Giants 1. In the most recent meeting (September 17, 2023), the Giants won 31-28; the Cardinals averaged +0.178 EPA per play; the Giants averaged +0.222 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2023 | Giants 31, Cardinals 28 Giants won | Giants -5 Cardinals covered | 40 over | Cardinals +0.178 · Giants +0.222 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Cardinals 26, Giants 7 Cardinals won | Cardinals -3 Cardinals covered | 47 under | Cardinals +0.047 · Giants −0.372 |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Cardinals 27, Giants 21 Cardinals won | Giants -3.5 Cardinals covered | 49.5 under | Cardinals +0.082 · Giants −0.194 |
| Dec 24, 2017 | Giants 0, Cardinals 23 Cardinals won | Cardinals -3 Cardinals covered | 39 under | Cardinals −0.181 · Giants −0.467 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Cardinals +2 (-110)
Cardinals -2.5 (-112)
Giants -134 55%
Giants +116 44%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Cardinals -2-113ProphetX
- Giants +2.5+102Novig
- Over 43.5-118FanDuel
- Under 44.5-104Polymarket
- Cardinals-133Novig
- Giants+127Novig
Dig deeper
Teams
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants
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